ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[MGC]

Not surprised on the upgrade...nice fish storm until it reaches the Azores.....MGC

[KWT]

I'd go along with the stronger idea, these systems moving NE tend to pull surprises more often than not in terms of strength.

[wxman57]

I suppose if it accelerates east with the flow then the relative shear won't be too bad.

[Blown Away]

North/Central Atlantic and BOC seem to be the best places for tropical cyclones to form. What happened to the old days when cyclones formed in the MDR??

[cycloneye]

North/Central Atlantic and BOC seem to be the best places for tropical cyclones to form. What happened to the old days when cyclones formed in the MDR??

Is still early to raise the white flag in the MDR. This will be a good one to track.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Stewart opted to be conservative for the first advisory, which is understandable because if Eight intensifies too fast, it will suck in dry air and it's core will be hurt for a time (ex. Rina and Ernesto).

[cycloneye]

The Azores islands will get some bad weather from this. Will they get more than a Tropical Storm?

[CrazyC83]

Do we have any S2K members from the Azores? Since this does look like a serious storm for them...

[hurricanes1234]

What models show 08L becoming a Category 4? I doubt this one would even make it to major hurricane status. With that dusty, dry air all around it, and that high pressure of 1013 mbar, it is questionable if it will even become a hurricane.

________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

Latest models: Cat 1 into the Azores.

WHXX01 KWBC 151850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC WED AUG 15 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932012) 20120815 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120815 1800 120816 0600 120816 1800 120817 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.1N 55.0W 31.2N 55.4W 33.3N 54.1W 34.7N 50.8W
BAMD 29.1N 55.0W 31.2N 55.3W 33.1N 54.1W 34.1N 51.3W
BAMM 29.1N 55.0W 31.2N 55.4W 33.1N 54.1W 34.3N 51.1W
LBAR 29.1N 55.0W 31.4N 55.0W 33.2N 54.0W 34.3N 51.7W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120817 1800 120818 1800 120819 1800 120820 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.0N 46.9W 34.3N 39.4W 34.3N 32.1W 34.4N 26.6W
BAMD 34.3N 47.9W 34.5N 38.8W 37.5N 25.6W 44.0N 13.0W
BAMM 34.5N 47.3W 34.3N 38.7W 35.9N 28.1W 39.7N 18.7W
LBAR 34.5N 48.4W 33.4N 40.1W 34.4N 30.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 76KTS 71KTS 55KTS
DSHP 63KTS 76KTS 71KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.1N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 26.1N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 329DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 51.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

What models show 08L becoming a Category 4? I doubt this one would even make it to major hurricane status. With that dusty, dry air all around it, and that high pressure of 1013 mbar, it is questionable if it will even become a hurricane.

________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No model that I know of. HWRF is most aggressive and suggests a Cat 2.

The 1013 pressure shouldn't be seen as an issue, since it is sitting against a very strong Bermuda/Azores high. The OCI is like 1020.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What models show 08L becoming a Category 4? I doubt this one would even make it to major hurricane status. With that dusty, dry air all around it, and that high pressure of 1013 mbar, it is questionable if it will even become a hurricane.

________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The earlier run of the HWRF showed a peak of 112 knots.

[Hammy]

What models show 08L becoming a Category 4? I doubt this one would even make it to major hurricane status. With that dusty, dry air all around it, and that high pressure of 1013 mbar, it is questionable if it will even become a hurricane.

in regards to the pressure, its fairly low relative to the surrounding environment, so that shouldn't be a preclusion--Ive seen a few Cat 3/4 storms with pressure in the high 970s (though I doubt this will get anywhere close to a major); and Danny in 2003 (in the same area in fact) reached hurricane strength with about 1002-1004 pressure

[hurricanes1234]

Thanks for the answers guys!

[cycloneye]

It seems that it will not be upgraded to Tropical Storm.

00z Best track

AL, 08, 2012081600, , BEST, 0, 307N, 553W, 30, 1012, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[NDG]

I'd go along with the stronger idea, these systems moving NE tend to pull surprises more often than not in terms of strength.

I agree, most times these NE moving systems strengthen more than forecasted most of the times, in fact I would not be surprised if it becomes at least a Cat 1 hurricane, it has plenty of of warm waters to go through.

[hurricanes1234]

I love the idea of the intermediate update that Storm2k gives so that I wouldn't have to wait 6 hours for the next one to arrive, I only need to wait 3 hours.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...WHICH IN FACT IS SMALL...IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN EARLIER TODAY. A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
VERY LIMITED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH RESULTS IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWING THE ICON AND
THE LGEM MODELS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE HWRF...WHICH INSISTS ON
MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. VERY
SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND RECURVE AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ONCE IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IN 4 DAYS OR
SO...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE AZORES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 31.3N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 33.0N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 34.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 35.5N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 35.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 37.5N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 40.0N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Hammy]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc12/ATL/08L.EIGHT/

we seem to have Gordon

[somethingfunny]