ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Wave off West Africa.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
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201208170358
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012081700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012081606, , BEST, 0, 106N, 120W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 107N, 136W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081618, , BEST, 0, 109N, 155W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 172W, 20, 1010, DB, 34
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum for this area of interest.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113357&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208170358
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012081700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012081606, , BEST, 0, 106N, 120W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 107N, 136W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081618, , BEST, 0, 109N, 155W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 172W, 20, 1010, DB, 34
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum for this area of interest.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113357&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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haha well I guess Im right there with the nhc !
very strange time of night for them make an invest out of it.. although given its appearance and model support I fully understand.
very strange time of night for them make an invest out of it.. although given its appearance and model support I fully understand.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L
this guy snuck up on me....INVEST right after splash down and low lat also....might make it across the pond...
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L
Now let's see what % NHC gives 94L at the 2 AM TWO. I go with 30%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L
cycloneye wrote:Now let's see what % NHC gives 94L at the 2 AM TWO. I go with 30%.
good call....Luis....PR has got to watch this one...
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- hurricanetrack
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Kind of hard to imagine that the same pattern would be in place for so many seasons in a row - allowing only Irene to get past the proverbial goalie. No matter, I always think of Frances in 2004 and how so many people wrote it off immediately as "going fishing". Look how that turned out. The pattern could change just enough but it is really tough to see that happening since we've in this re-curve rut for so long. I guess we will just have to watch and wait it out....
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is this that huge low that the GFS has been showing in the last several runs at the end?
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L
This looks like its currently part of the ITCZ and until it can disconnect it will take a little more time strengthening which would possibly make this get picked up a little by the weakness, but the weakness in the ridge that the models have will have closed up and 94l gets left behind and that would be a possibly ugly scenerio, I would like to see the ridge trough position take this far away from anyone.
My forecast is
current 11N 17.2W 25mph
12 hrs 11.5N 20W 35mph
24hrs 11.8N 23W 45mph
36hrs 12.2N 25.5W 60mph
48hrs 12.5N 28W 70mph
72hrs 13.5N 33W 85mph
96hrs 13.8N 37W 90mph
120hrs 14.5N 40W 105mph
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My forecast is
current 11N 17.2W 25mph
12 hrs 11.5N 20W 35mph
24hrs 11.8N 23W 45mph
36hrs 12.2N 25.5W 60mph
48hrs 12.5N 28W 70mph
72hrs 13.5N 33W 85mph
96hrs 13.8N 37W 90mph
120hrs 14.5N 40W 105mph
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Hammy wrote:is this that huge low that the GFS has been showing in the last several runs at the end?
Yes,is this system.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L
NHC starts with 10%.
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

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On the face of it this one should recurve a decent way away from the US and even the Caribbean...however I don't know why but I've just got a feeling this one will be getting alot closer to both mentioned areas than most models are showing.
Anyway this system is indeed heavily connected to the ITCZ, very convectivly active however at the moment which bodes well down the line.
I think this has a good chance of being a major hurricane, conditions over the W.Atlantic look the best I've seen this season in 7-10 days time.
Anyway this system is indeed heavily connected to the ITCZ, very convectivly active however at the moment which bodes well down the line.
I think this has a good chance of being a major hurricane, conditions over the W.Atlantic look the best I've seen this season in 7-10 days time.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Aug 17, 2012 5:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Gustywind
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE MOST RECENT RAWINSONDE DATA FOR BAMAKO IN MALI SHOW
THAT A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED THAT STATION DURING THE LAST
48 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A COMPARATIVELY LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE MOST RECENT RAWINSONDE DATA FOR BAMAKO IN MALI SHOW
THAT A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED THAT STATION DURING THE LAST
48 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A COMPARATIVELY LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
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- Gustywind
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Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html
Aug 16, 2012 10:34 pm ET
ATLANTIC
- Models continue to key on a tropical wave and low pressure system now coming off Africa as having a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone as it traverses the Atlantic. Those projections also continue to show the system not making the journey all the way across to North America.

Aug 16, 2012 10:34 pm ET
ATLANTIC
- Models continue to key on a tropical wave and low pressure system now coming off Africa as having a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone as it traverses the Atlantic. Those projections also continue to show the system not making the journey all the way across to North America.
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Shouldn't be a rapid developer, looks like it'll tug along to the west for at least the next 72-96hrs, after that there is now some major divergence in solutions, going to be hard to call.
Either way I think this will be at the very least a Bermuda threat down the line, even if it does curve NW/NNW earlier like the more easterly models.
Either way I think this will be at the very least a Bermuda threat down the line, even if it does curve NW/NNW earlier like the more easterly models.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L
8 AM TWO stays at 10%
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
Weatherbell video shows method behind my madness I dont believe GFS recurve for pattern dictates sw atlantic basin, w gulf nxt w
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41m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
Gordon to be Eyesore near the Azores in 3 days,head for Spain after.Tropics active Aug 20-Sept 10. East coast place to watch by LD weekend
Weatherbell video shows method behind my madness I dont believe GFS recurve for pattern dictates sw atlantic basin, w gulf nxt w
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41m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
Gordon to be Eyesore near the Azores in 3 days,head for Spain after.Tropics active Aug 20-Sept 10. East coast place to watch by LD weekend
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I think whilst I do favour the recurve solution (around 65W would be my punt right now, much further west than the GFS starts it) I wouldn't rule out a threat to the east coast. I'd have thought its more of a threat to NS/Newfoundland and Bermuda though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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