BOC Next Week...........
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AussieMark
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wxman57
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Bret
Bret is one of my "case studies" when I give my talks each spring. It demonstrates why you need to have a back-up plan of action if you live on the Gulf coast, because storms can develop quickly and change course just a fast.
We followed Bret across the Atlantic as a tropical wave for quite a while. It never looked like it was a development threat. The wave crossed the Yucatan on Wednesday, August 18th, I believe, and emerged into the BOC where it flared-up quickly. It became a depression that day - heading slowly WNW toward Mexico. On Thursday the 19th it became Bret. NHC had it going WNW into Mexico. We saw no reason to disagree at that point, as all models showed steering currents form the ESE.
On Friday morning, August 20th, I arrived at the office, plotted the 09Z NHC track taking it to Tampico, MX, then looked at the visible satellite which showed a quick NNW motion for the past 3 hours. Bret wasn't moving WNW toward Tampico but nearly due north! I couldn't understand it at first, all model data showed nothing to steer Bret north. I took a step back to view the whole picture...
One of the best tools of the tropical meteorologist is the water vapor satellite image. This allows the meteorologist to see where the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is moving - even when there's not a cloud in the sky. One look at the satellite loop told me why Bret was moving north and not WNW. There was an upper-level low right over northern Mexico, and that low was stationary. The NHC forecast drove Bret right across the mid to upper-level winds around the low and into Mexico.
My next question was why didn't the models forecast the north movement, given the position of the upper-level low? When I looked at the 00-hr panel of each model I found absolutely NO evidence of any low in northern Mexico. There just isn't any data over the Sierra Madre mountains, so the models thought that the steering-level winds were from the ESE instead of the south.
As Bret tracked north, I believe that it was located in the favorable southwest perimeter of this upper-level low, just as was the case with Lili last year. We correctly forecast Bret to track north then take a sharp turn left into south Texas that Friday morning. The NHC kept blindly following the models and didn't move the track north of Brownsville until the next day, less than 24hrs before landfall.
So the key here was the assisted outflow from an upper-level low to the NNW of the center - along with very warm water, of course.
We followed Bret across the Atlantic as a tropical wave for quite a while. It never looked like it was a development threat. The wave crossed the Yucatan on Wednesday, August 18th, I believe, and emerged into the BOC where it flared-up quickly. It became a depression that day - heading slowly WNW toward Mexico. On Thursday the 19th it became Bret. NHC had it going WNW into Mexico. We saw no reason to disagree at that point, as all models showed steering currents form the ESE.
On Friday morning, August 20th, I arrived at the office, plotted the 09Z NHC track taking it to Tampico, MX, then looked at the visible satellite which showed a quick NNW motion for the past 3 hours. Bret wasn't moving WNW toward Tampico but nearly due north! I couldn't understand it at first, all model data showed nothing to steer Bret north. I took a step back to view the whole picture...
One of the best tools of the tropical meteorologist is the water vapor satellite image. This allows the meteorologist to see where the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is moving - even when there's not a cloud in the sky. One look at the satellite loop told me why Bret was moving north and not WNW. There was an upper-level low right over northern Mexico, and that low was stationary. The NHC forecast drove Bret right across the mid to upper-level winds around the low and into Mexico.
My next question was why didn't the models forecast the north movement, given the position of the upper-level low? When I looked at the 00-hr panel of each model I found absolutely NO evidence of any low in northern Mexico. There just isn't any data over the Sierra Madre mountains, so the models thought that the steering-level winds were from the ESE instead of the south.
As Bret tracked north, I believe that it was located in the favorable southwest perimeter of this upper-level low, just as was the case with Lili last year. We correctly forecast Bret to track north then take a sharp turn left into south Texas that Friday morning. The NHC kept blindly following the models and didn't move the track north of Brownsville until the next day, less than 24hrs before landfall.
So the key here was the assisted outflow from an upper-level low to the NNW of the center - along with very warm water, of course.
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Agua wrote:???? How "huge"? I've seen a grandaddy moccasin [probably 6-8 ft in length and 15" - 18" circumfrence (7" - 8" diameter)] from my days in central Mississippi but I've pretty much avoided getting around wooded / swampy areas since I've been down here on the coast (10 years).
Some of them can get up to 15 feet long and as big around as a utility pole!! It came out of the ditch that runs along HWY. 90 by the Shingle Mill. It was just lying in the road and hissing at us.
Frank P. the story of the tidal wave is not a story. The Civil Defense teams, damage assessors and insurance adjusters came to that conclusion because of the damage path. I was one of the adjusters in the area at the time when I worked for Pilot Adjustments. There was no way a small storm surge could carry that size boat over a paved road and deposit it on the other side of the tracks. Plus there was a wall of debris on the other side of the boat.
I know Sioux Bayou well. There was alot of water damage in that area from Georges. I heard about the terror they endured at the Chevron/Texaco refinery during Georges. Of course, you will never get them to admit that they were warned way in advance.
Don't worry about your look Frank P. We ALL look that way after a hurricane. lol.
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Frank P
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Well I can't argue with you Linda because I don't have all the facts, what I do know is that you normally don't get a 20 foot surge of anything with a marginal Cat 2 Storm.... don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it didn't happen, but a 12 foot storm surge any where on coastal MS is quite a surge in itself, and as Jason pointed out ,Chevron has a 12 foot levee and it was breached so I guess it could have gotten a little above 12 feet... but climatologically, you could only associate a 20 storm surge with a Cat 5 type storm, or maybe a really strong Cat 4.... moving really slow... my opinion only.... maybe Jason has some information that backs up that 20 surge... I just don't know, but this is the first time I've heard of it... I was working at the Moss Point International Paper Mill at the time Georges hit as the Mill's Safety Director... we got at best maybe a 8 or 9 foot surge in the plant yard... also was in contact with several Chevron employees during their cleanup... regardless Georges did a lot of damage to the SE MS coastal counties, and some serious flooding as well 
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Frank... we based the surge on the damage path. It may not have been a 20 ft. surge, but that is what we based our assessment upon and it went in the books that way, at least from an insurance viewpoint. When I finally got there, I could not believe what I was seeing. Guess it is something you just had to see. I no longer work for them however, so I have no evidence to support it. But you can contact Todd at the civil defense office and he may can tell you the facts. 
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Frank P
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Thats very interesting Linda, and Gautier was closer to the eye wall than Pascagoula so it would be assumed the surge would have been even higher closer to the eye wall.. and Georges remained stationary for several hours, so I really don't know how high the surge got in Gautier..... I know this, a couple of friends of mine stayed in their house on the beach in Gautier, they were scared to death and said they would never ride out another storm...
like I said, I don't have all the facts and you were there and saw the all damage first hand...... anything and everything is possible with these tropical systems...
My experiences with the tidal surges associated with Camille, Elena, Georges and Isadore were all very similar, with exception of height... for all but Camille I watched the water rise from the GoM out of my front window in my living room.... I put up a quarter inch piece of clear lexan over one of my window, so I can see the gulf, the others get plywood... its an amazing process for those who have never see a tidal surge... the water rises relatively slow, it's not this giganic wave or sorts... slowly but steadly rises, until you get hit with the eye wall, then it speeds up the process quite a bit... the wind is blowing so hard that it even shears the waves that are built up by the storm... its like a big frothy foam bath on the beach... although the waves in the MS sound probably never get above 4 or 5 feet at their peak, at least in front of my house... ... I didn't see Camille's surge come in off the beach, but we saw it rise in our house, just like all the others.... you can see it inch up on your walls... then it just levels out for a while, and then you can actually see it recede... something that I hope I never experience again....
like I said, I don't have all the facts and you were there and saw the all damage first hand...... anything and everything is possible with these tropical systems...
My experiences with the tidal surges associated with Camille, Elena, Georges and Isadore were all very similar, with exception of height... for all but Camille I watched the water rise from the GoM out of my front window in my living room.... I put up a quarter inch piece of clear lexan over one of my window, so I can see the gulf, the others get plywood... its an amazing process for those who have never see a tidal surge... the water rises relatively slow, it's not this giganic wave or sorts... slowly but steadly rises, until you get hit with the eye wall, then it speeds up the process quite a bit... the wind is blowing so hard that it even shears the waves that are built up by the storm... its like a big frothy foam bath on the beach... although the waves in the MS sound probably never get above 4 or 5 feet at their peak, at least in front of my house... ... I didn't see Camille's surge come in off the beach, but we saw it rise in our house, just like all the others.... you can see it inch up on your walls... then it just levels out for a while, and then you can actually see it recede... something that I hope I never experience again....
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Anonymous
I was four during Camille. But, I remember alot of things even as a four year old. The winds were deafening. Even Frederic, Elena and Georges I never heard them sound like the winds of Camille. The windows in the second story were blowing out. I remember seeing fear on all the adults faces which in turn made me afraid. Heck, I was four.
When Frederic came in, I remember not being as scared and did not see that look on my parents face like I had with Camille. I was a teen and I was invincible (lol) so I thought it was cool.
I slept through Elena. YES, the whole night. I was expecting a baby and I was exhausted. Little did I know that a tornado jumped my parents home, which caused them all to panic and head for the basement. They tried to wake me and I would not budge. lol.
Georges was supposed to be a minimal hurricane the last I heard. I was going to ride him out at my own home, which is near the beach. My home started vibrating so I decided to go to my parents. Mike Reader kept insisting that Georges was going to be stronger than what the NHC was saying and it was going to make landfall further east than the NHC predicted. Well, he was right. Those winds were fierce. I tried to sleep and woke up about 3:30 a.m. to hear his fury. I walked into the den only to see the same look of fear on my parents face like I saw in Camille. I told my Dad that this does not sound like no damn minimal hurricane to me!! Thank goodness people listened to Mike Reader or we would have had worse problems here than we did. I still blame all the flooding here in Jackson Cty. on Mobile opening their flood gates.
My point is.. after Georges I am not going to stay for another one either.
And I understand about him stalling and none of it makes any sense about the surge in that area. But, I saw the damage path. It reminded me of that boat that washed ashore during Camille on the Biloxi Beach.
When Frederic came in, I remember not being as scared and did not see that look on my parents face like I had with Camille. I was a teen and I was invincible (lol) so I thought it was cool.
I slept through Elena. YES, the whole night. I was expecting a baby and I was exhausted. Little did I know that a tornado jumped my parents home, which caused them all to panic and head for the basement. They tried to wake me and I would not budge. lol.
Georges was supposed to be a minimal hurricane the last I heard. I was going to ride him out at my own home, which is near the beach. My home started vibrating so I decided to go to my parents. Mike Reader kept insisting that Georges was going to be stronger than what the NHC was saying and it was going to make landfall further east than the NHC predicted. Well, he was right. Those winds were fierce. I tried to sleep and woke up about 3:30 a.m. to hear his fury. I walked into the den only to see the same look of fear on my parents face like I saw in Camille. I told my Dad that this does not sound like no damn minimal hurricane to me!! Thank goodness people listened to Mike Reader or we would have had worse problems here than we did. I still blame all the flooding here in Jackson Cty. on Mobile opening their flood gates.
My point is.. after Georges I am not going to stay for another one either.
And I understand about him stalling and none of it makes any sense about the surge in that area. But, I saw the damage path. It reminded me of that boat that washed ashore during Camille on the Biloxi Beach.
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Anonymous
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bayouwxman
- Tropical Low
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On the subject of storm surge...
You really can't compare hurricanes and expect similar results. There are so many variables that contribute to the surge level (angle of approach, wind fields, speed of movement, coastline shape, etc) that quite often you will see large local variations in surge.
In the case of Georges and Pascagoula, water was gradually pumped into some of the smaller bays and inlets and got "trapped" because of the shape of the coastline relative to Georges' wind field and movement. So even though Georges was a "mere" cat 2, the unique set of conditions that came together produced the problems with the Chevron plant and others.
While inland fresh-water flooding has become the big killer in recent years, many people are doing a lot of research in the hopes of better understanding surge. Not only is it a threat to human lives, but as Georges demonstrated, the economic impacts can be huge.
Finally...always enjoy your posts wxman57, but I would have to debate Nash Roberts correctly forecasting Georges landfall. I have him on tape the day before landfall drawing lines to potential landfall points all the way from Florida to Houston. He did draw 1 of his lines to Biloxi, but heck, if that's criteria for a good forecast, I could get everyone right too! And, all of you Nash fans, I know I would never win this battle, but just had to throw my 2 cents in.
Edit: One more interesting note on the surge...this is from the Sept. 27, 4 PM Public Advisory from the NHC:
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... AND UP TO 17 FEET AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
Not to say that many expected the dramatic problems in Pascagoula and other places, but the hurricane warning did include the entire MS coast.
You really can't compare hurricanes and expect similar results. There are so many variables that contribute to the surge level (angle of approach, wind fields, speed of movement, coastline shape, etc) that quite often you will see large local variations in surge.
In the case of Georges and Pascagoula, water was gradually pumped into some of the smaller bays and inlets and got "trapped" because of the shape of the coastline relative to Georges' wind field and movement. So even though Georges was a "mere" cat 2, the unique set of conditions that came together produced the problems with the Chevron plant and others.
While inland fresh-water flooding has become the big killer in recent years, many people are doing a lot of research in the hopes of better understanding surge. Not only is it a threat to human lives, but as Georges demonstrated, the economic impacts can be huge.
Finally...always enjoy your posts wxman57, but I would have to debate Nash Roberts correctly forecasting Georges landfall. I have him on tape the day before landfall drawing lines to potential landfall points all the way from Florida to Houston. He did draw 1 of his lines to Biloxi, but heck, if that's criteria for a good forecast, I could get everyone right too! And, all of you Nash fans, I know I would never win this battle, but just had to throw my 2 cents in.
Edit: One more interesting note on the surge...this is from the Sept. 27, 4 PM Public Advisory from the NHC:
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... AND UP TO 17 FEET AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
Not to say that many expected the dramatic problems in Pascagoula and other places, but the hurricane warning did include the entire MS coast.
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Thunder~n~Lightning wrote:Sorry Lindaloo and Frank I wasn't trying to but in your discussion. I didn't refresh the screen I was just commenting on the number of storms the GOM has had this year, and just making a smart comment that everyone should have a turn.
Well jump in anytime you want. I like reading about experiences.
bayou... The NHC does an excellent job. But, there is no one that knows your area better than your own local mets.
Actually, Gautier was in the calm of the eye. My sister was in Gautier and called me when the eye was moving in. We never got the calm. We were in the NE quadrant for a very long time here in Pascagoula.
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