ATL: ISAAC - Models

[KWT]

Well whilst we were shut out the 18z GFS run finished...

All I can say is a major hurricane into DR, gets close to the Bahamas and then N/NNE about 2-300 miles to the east of the east coast. Thats VERY close to the mark and I'm far from convinced that the weakness shown by the GFS is going to be enough to lift out to that extent.

The 18z GFS is much stronger though with the upper ridge.

Things just got very interesting indeed, and ever so slightly worrying...

[floridasun78]

we cannot go models that are weeks alway because seen them change like 100 time before get past 80w or even dont make it past 80s west

[tolakram]

Here is the page for the latest GFS run: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/18zgfs.html

[KWT]

I'm most interested to see what the ensembles are showing, the 12z ensembles were split into 2 camps, one that recurves around 50-55W, and another that recurves up through the NE Caribbean, abit like the 18z GFS and the 12z ECM. I know what solution I'd back at the moment...

[floridasun78]

let see gfs show next wed maybe fish storm

[Riptide]

Interesting developements from the 18z GFS ensembles, wondering if the 0z GFS will agree.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/mo ... 246422.png

[TheDreamTraveler]

we cannot go models that are weeks alway because seen them change like 100 time before get past 80w or even dont make it past 80s west

I would agree with you, but when all the computer models start showing a Western trend I start to get a little worried. Any potential impacts to Bermuda, Canada or anywhere along the East Coast could happen in 2 weeks or less, so it's good to examine them well for trends and such. It's possible according to some ensembles of the models that this could get even farther West than we're even currently thinking :\

[KWT]

Wow thats one hell of a shift from the 18z GFS and the ensembles.

When see that large of a shift, it tends to suggest that the trend hasn't finished yet...

Many landfallers on that set of ensembles!!

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

Not even a depression yet and GFS18z has a 971mb cat 2 cane off the coast of virginia......say the center about 150-200miles from making landfall in U.S. Hope it doesn't keep shifting west.

[Caribwxgirl]

I'm just going to sit and watch so far the storms haven't exactly done as expected. I'm just hoping for the best especially for the caribbean

[KWT]

I wonder how many of those runs rake the Caribbean as the system starts to lift out to the NW?

Have to wait and have a look at the indivdual ensemble members, but thats very close to what the ECM ensembles showed the other days from what I've heard.

Looks like the models have clocked that the ridge to the north is stronger, I was thinking earlier that 17kts was pretty quick if there was a weak ridge to the north...

IMO at the moment its more likely to hit Central America than recurve before 60W....

[Hurricane Alexis]

Where can I see the 18z GFS ensemble tracks?

[Riptide]

I wonder how many of those runs rake the Caribbean as the system starts to lift out to the NW?

Have to wait and have a look at the indivdual ensemble members, but thats very close to what the ECM ensembles showed the other days from what I've heard.

Perhaps we have more a convergence here rather than a continuing trend; I recall some statistics about land falling CV tropical cyclones during Weak El Nino and the probabilities are not very high(Around 10%). I suppose we would need to watch where it forms; and then look at the analogs but I think an east trend is more likely in comparison to a west trend.

[Riptide]

Where can I see the 18z GFS ensemble tracks?

18z GFS Ensemble Mean, which is the average of all the ensemble tracks; there appear to be 3 seperate clusters of ensembles but none of them have 94L passing east of Bermuda.

[KWT]

I wonder how many of those runs rake the Caribbean as the system starts to lift out to the NW?

Have to wait and have a look at the indivdual ensemble members, but thats very close to what the ECM ensembles showed the other days from what I've heard.

Perhaps we have more a convergence here rather than a continuing trend; I recall some statistics about land falling CV tropical cyclones during Weak El Nino and the probabilities are not very high(Around 10%). I suppose we would need to watch where it forms; and then look at the analogs but I think an east trend is more likely in comparison to a west trend.

As others have rightly said the pattern is not really an El nino one right now, I'd say its probably safer to use neutral analogs for at least the next week or two since the stronger warmer SST's really only come in during the last 10-14 days.

You maybe right about the convergence, especially as this is from what I've heard the ECM ensembles have been suggesting it'd be for a while.

However I can't overlook the fact that 2 out of the last 4 systems that took the low road in the MDR ended up reaching the BoC (Ernesto and Helene) and that'd suggest that there is probably at least some meat in that ridge, as does the fact this system is racing along at the moment, probably too quickly for any major development just now.

[CrazyC83]

we cannot go models that are weeks alway because seen them change like 100 time before get past 80w or even dont make it past 80s west

I would agree with you, but when all the computer models start showing a Western trend I start to get a little worried. Any potential impacts to Bermuda, Canada or anywhere along the East Coast could happen in 2 weeks or less, so it's good to examine them well for trends and such. It's possible according to some ensembles of the models that this could get even farther West than we're even currently thinking :\

At this rate with so much shifting, we might end up with a Caribbean cruiser or a Gulf storm in the end...

[KWT]

There is a decent weakness still being shown on the models which should be enough at least induce some northward motion, especially if this is a hurricane by that point.

However it has crossed my mind that there have been several systems in the past that have simply missed weaknesses and cruised through the Caribbean, Dean is one such system...

Still I don't think thats as likely this time, unless it stays very weak.

[blp]

Have the GFDL and HWRF been run on 94l? I did not see it at the 18z.

[KWT]

Not that I'm aware of, but I'm sure they will be run at 00z given the 18z models have shifted way westwards.

[Hurricaneman]

Can Andrew be used as a analog in this case?

only if it goes north of the islands, Andrew formed from a wave in the same geological area as 94L so maybe