2012 Hurricane Season! Is here!!

[NDG]

Notice that it now shows higher MSLPs for the Eastern Pacific than previous monthly forecasts.

[Sanibel]

Anyone else getting the feeling that the cap is just waiting to break and then...

[floridasun78]

remember that july is not busy in tropical i bet we all bit supprise to see already 4 storm already

[cycloneye]

It will be interesting to see what CSU/NOAA will have on their August forecast.

In late May NOAA had 9-15 storms/4-8 hurricanes/1-3 majors.

In June CSU had 13/5/2.

[CrazyC83]

My prediction the rest of the way:

July (remainder) - 1/0/0
August - 2/2/1
September - 4/2/1
October - NOTHING
November - 1/1/0

And in the EPAC:

July (remainder) - 2/1/0 (total 5/4/2)
August - 6/3/2
September - 5/3/2
October - 5/2/1
November - 2/1/0

TOTALS - 12/6/2 Atlantic, 25/15/8 EPAC, plus 2 storms (1 major hurricane) in the CPAC

[cycloneye]

The prospects for the rest of July about having Tropical Developments look bleck in the North Atlantic Basin.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Those images are just based off model runs.

[cycloneye]

Rob of Crown Weather says nothing in July but first couple of weeks of August will be the time for developments to blossom.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Atlantic Is A Barren Oceanscape With No Development Expected For At Least The Next Two Weeks

Wednesday, July 18, 2012 7:12 am

by Rob Lightbown

The tropical Atlantic is a barren landscape this morning with no areas of concern. This barren look is due to dry, dusty air that has come off of Africa. This dry Saharan air promises to give some very pretty sunrises and sunsets to south Florida by this weekend.

No tropical development is expected for at least the next two weeks. In fact, the longer range guidance keeps things very quiet right through the first weekend of August.

So, I still strongly believe that we will go the entire month of July without a named storm. The next chance for a named storm, I still think, will be sometime between August 5th and August 15th.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[wxman57]

The July update of the MSLP is interesting as for ASO the pressures are normal in the MDR instead of higher pressures that was forecast in past months.Higher pressures are north of 20N and in parts of GOM.

May forecast for ASO



June forecast for ASO



July forecast for ASO

I don't see any images in your post, Luis, but on the ECMWF site I can see that the July forecast is for considerably higher pressures in the Atlantic than was the case back in June. Particularly north of 20N.

[cycloneye]

I see them 57. But the important thing is that the MDR is with normal pressures now at the ECMWF forecast of MSLP.

[cycloneye]

Folks,here is the Farmers Almanac forecast for the next 10 weeks. See it by yourself as I wont say anything.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-rang ... theast-us/

[cycloneye]

TSR made it's final 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast. They have 14/6/3.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ug2012.pdf

[HurricaneRyan]

Woot, Ernesto became a hurricane. Most exciting storm in the Caribbean in a LONG while!

[Riptide]

Things are about to get rolling in the tropical Atlantic. I'm expecting something as busy or more busy than last year; with more significant landfalls.

[cycloneye]

The North Atlantic will be active in the next 2-3 weeks as the wet phase of MJO kicks into the basin.



The MJO remained active during the past week as the enhanced phase propagated east across the Pacific Ocean. The Indian monsoon circulation index has been weaker than normal for much of the summer, contributing to well below normal rainfall for Gujarat and Rajasthan. Following an active North American monsoon during mid-to-late July, the monsoon weakened during the beginning of August.

A pair of tropical cyclones made landfall in eastern China during the past week. On August 2, Typhoon Damrey struck Jiangsu province with Tropical Storm Saola quickly following a day later with a landfall in Fujian province. Two more tropical cyclones developed in the northwest Pacific after Damrey and Saola’s landfall. Tropical Storm Haikui is expected to make landfall near Shanghai, while Tropical Storm 13W dissipates as it tracks north to the east of Japan. Please see the latest statements and forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/.

The tropical Atlantic became more active at the beginning of August with Tropical Storm Ernesto tracking across the Caribbean Sea and short-lived Tropical Storm Florence in the central Atlantic. Ernesto is expected to affect parts of Central America and Mexico as it tracks westward. In the east Pacific, Tropical Storm Gilma developed on August 7. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov) for the latest statements and forecasts for tropical cyclones in the east Pacific and Atlantic.

Most dynamical MJO index forecasts indicate an eastward propagating signal during the next weeks with the enhanced phase over the western Hemisphere (week-1) and entering the Indian Ocean (week-2). Therefore, outlooks were based primarily on guidance from MJO precipitation composites along with numerical models. During Week-1, above-average rainfall is expected to continue across the northwest Pacific with an increased chance for an additional tropical cyclone in this region. Along the path of Tropical Storm Haikui, heavy rainfall can be expected in east-central China. Below-average rainfall is favored across the far eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The westward track of Ernesto enhances the likelihood of above-average rainfall for Belize and southern Mexico. Above-average rainfall is expected to return to the western Africa monsoon region. Above average SSTs and the enhanced phase of the MJO signal elevate chances for tropical cyclone development in the east Pacific and main development region of the tropical Atlantic.

During week-2, the eastward propagating MJO signal increases chances for above-average rainfall across Mexico, parts of the Caribbean, western Africa, and the western Indian Ocean. Below-average rainfall is expected to shift northeast to the Philippines. The enhanced phase of the MJO signal, above average SSTs, and climatology favor tropical cyclone development in the east Pacific and the main development region of the tropical Atlantic.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[HurricaneRyan]

Season is getting pretty active.

[Hurricane Alexis]

According to the farmer's almanac, there will be a hurricane threat in south florida on early september.

[HurricaneRyan]

That Almanac was a little late then - Isaac is coming and Florida is his friend

[cycloneye]

It looks like things will stay active for the next two weeks with MDR activity.



Last Updated: 09.04.12 Valid: 09.05.12 - 09.18.12

The MJO diminished in strength during the past week. Most dynamical MJO index forecasts indicate a weak, incoherent signal during the next two weeks. Based on the latest observations and most model forecasts, the MJO is forecast to remain weak.

The Atlantic basin remained active this past week with Hurricane Isaac making landfall along the central Gulf Coast and three more tropical cyclones (Kirk, Leslie, and Michael) forming in the tropical Atlantic. Along the inland track of Isaac, flooding occurred in the lower Mississippi Valley but beneficial rain fell over the drought-stricken Midwest. Although no tropical cyclones developed in the western north Pacific, a pair of former typhoons (Bolaven and Tembin) brought flooding rainfall to the Korean peninsula. Short-lived Tropical Storm John developed in the east Pacific.

Since the MJO is not expected to contribute significantly to anomalous convection across the global tropics, the Global Hazards Outlook (week-1) is based on model guidance, climatology, and current conditions. A low pressure system associated with the Indian monsoon is expected to result in above-average rainfall across western India and much of Pakistan. above-average sea-surface temperatures and model guidance favor above-average rainfall to the northeast of New Guinea. A forecast track of a weakening tropical cyclone in the east Pacific and model guidance support a small area of above-average rainfall across northwest Mexico. Tropical Storm Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane as it tracks near Bermuda. above-average rainfall can be expected along and near Leslie’s path including Bermuda and surrounding Atlantic waters. Subsidence to the south of Leslie and model guidance indicate a broad area of below average rainfall for much of the Caribbean, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula. Anomalous westerly winds are expected to increase low-level convergence, resulting in above-average rainfall for parts of west and central Africa.

During week-2, uncertainty is high due to the expected weak MJO signal. Forecast tools and climatology favor tropical cyclone development with moderate confidence for the east Pacific and tropical Atlantic.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/