ATL: ISAAC - Models

[jinftl]

Plot showing several different model runs...most recent are 1200z....lots of possibilities...several more days of watching and seeing for the Islands...beyond that, no way to know for sure...right now it about trends and consistency of the models more than specific plot points so far out for the islands

[Bocadude85]

06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF ensembles in the long-range...the GFS shows a weakness developing east of Florida over the Bahamas but the ECMWF shows more ridging and the weakness further west over Florida and the SE U.S. in this run:

The solution the Euro is showing is a perfect setup for a SE coast landfall

[Stormlover2012]

the setup will keep changing!!

[CrazyC83]

That ridge looks way too strong to me to allow for an easy recurve...

[Blown Away]

240 Hours out, ECMWF has ridge setup that does not appear to allow recurve.

[ROCK]

I wouldnt get too wrapped up in the 06Z GFS....I would be watching for the 12Z here in a few as well as the EURO in a few hours.....

BTW- the NOGAPS is still jacked....stregenthens it too fast and plows it into the ridge...ala that expiremental model someone posted earlier....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

06Z for Helene but you can see Issac moving into the islands pretty far south in lat....end frames looks to be pulling up maybe over PR or under...if you extrapolated it out...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Steve H.]

Still very early in the game with this invest. As we typically see with Cape Verde systems, initial modeling with eastern Atlantic systems has them out to sea, then as it progresses west the models shift west. This one is interesting since the models are showing a westward shift while it is still in the eastern Atlantic. As Gordon moves east ridging will build in behind. Have a feeling that later in the week, the east coast trough will pull out, allowing western Atlantic ridging to build over "him." Don't think this will move as fast as previous system. usually 18- 20 knots is normal, All speculation at this point, but this certainly could be a long trip across the pond.

This is not a forecast and should not be taken as one - merely thoughts and observations.

[CrazyC83]

That ECWMF setup seems to agree with my thinking. IMO, this is going to get trapped in the Caribbean at least to around 80W...maybe all the way to the Yucatan. But what track from there - similar to Ivan? Ike? Dean? Felix?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS is starting to roll... I like the initialization.

[ROCK]

That ECWMF setup seems to agree with my thinking. IMO, this is going to get trapped in the Caribbean at least to around 80W...maybe all the way to the Yucatan.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

but the EURO also had a weak system as well all the way across.....all other intensity guidance shows that this will not be a TW when it approaches the islands....

[CrazyC83]

That ECWMF setup seems to agree with my thinking. IMO, this is going to get trapped in the Caribbean at least to around 80W...maybe all the way to the Yucatan.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

but the EURO also had a weak system as well all the way across.....all other intensity guidance shows that this will not be a TW when it approaches the islands....

Looking at the steering currents, the ridge would knock anything less than a high-end major hurricane below 940mb (at 50-60W) into the Windwards and central Caribbean. From there who knows...

[Blown Away]

Appears 12z GFS appears more north and a bit faster than 06z through 84 hours:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP084.gif

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows building high pressure over the Eastern half of the United States at 120 hours. Future Isaac is heading west through the Leewards and gaining strength. The good news is that the GFS has lowered its intensity projection into the Leewards compared to yesterday's run bringing it closer to the ECMWF intensity prediction but not nearly as weak.

[RL3AO]

126hr.

Nice anti-cyclone over system. Long wave trough over the east coast starting to move out.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ... 114 hours ... About 200 miles W of 06z run
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal114.gif

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow.....looking at that run it seems it makes it into the Caribbean....

[SouthDadeFish]

126hr.

Nice anti-cyclone over system. Long wave trough over the east coast starting to move out.

That is very scary. What is even more scary is that it is only five days out, which means this scenario is getting more reasonable with with each consecutive model run. The islands have to keep a very close eye on this one.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ... 150 hours ... Heading for DR and getting stronger
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal150.gif

[HurricaneWarning92]

that would crush it, since DR is very mountainous, but of course thatd be bad for them.