ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 150 hours, more west, faster, going under DR, and getting stronger!! Looks like direct hit on Hispaniola!

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ... 180 hours ... Moving towards SE Bahamas ... much weaker
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal180.gif

Looks like a hurricane David type track!

[Vortex]

Folks, this storm has much potential to be a classic cape verde-The models continue to trend further west and thats the most important thing to focus on at this point. This is going to affect the lesser antilles, there is little doubt on that issue.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS ... 180 hours ... Moving towards SE Bahamas ... much weaker
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal180.gif

Looks like a hurricane David type track!

Let's see how quickly the GFS ramps it up in the SE Bahamas....

Ridging holding along the Eastern seaboard of the United States...

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ... 192 hours moving WNW ... Over W Cuba ... Maybe GOM???
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif

[gatorcane]

12z GFS ... 192 hours moving WNW ... Over W Cuba ... Maybe GOM???
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif

Looks like it may make landfall in South Florida....

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ... 216 hours ... moving SLOW, just off Cuba ... still weak
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS at 250+ hours:

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ... 240 hours .. Moving towards Miami ... Getting stronger ...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif

[ROCK]

Maybe the euro was not so out to lunch with track..I think it was wack with intensity though..

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ... 252 hours ... Maybe touches FL coast near WPB ... Moving N now
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal252.gif

[CrazyC83]

A slow-mover up the coast or just inland like that would be an epic flood disaster for the ENTIRE east coast from nose to tip...

[HurrMark]

Definitely looks like an East Coast runner...pretty much paralleling the coast until about Wilmington, NC, where it goes inland and becomes a mess for the Mid-Atlantic...the saving grace is that Hispaniola took a toll out of it (although not good for those folks), so it doesn't get super-strong.

[ROCK]

What we take from this run is more west and south before pulling up...depends on the ridging and how deep he gets....at that time..still even the GFS at 200+hrs is la la land for final destination...

[Stormlover2012]

each model run keeps pushing it west, it will end up in gom

[CrazyC83]

Definitely looks like an East Coast runner...pretty much paralleling the coast until about Wilmington, NC, where it goes inland and becomes a mess for the Mid-Atlantic...the saving grace is that Hispaniola took a toll out of it (although not good for those folks), so it doesn't get super-strong.

On that track, land interaction with Florida and Cuba would also keep it in check. But with that kind of size, rainfall would be a HUGE story.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I have been following the GFS runs closely as well. Now, again, not to get too focused past 5 days out, but the trends are hinting at farther west solutions for 94L. Also, a David -like scenario is certainly plausible, especially if this system tracks over and gets entangled with the caribbean islands and Hispaniola late this week. That is exactly what David did in '79. But, so much can change and we will analyze so much about this developing cyclone in the coming days.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

I don't know about GOM but I do know it's better to be pinned at 200+ hrs than at 72hrs....

[Stormlover2012]

the trends keeps coming west over the like 3 runs and will keep trending that way, it will get in the gom

[BigB0882]

At this point I half expect it to make landfall in Mexico. The western trends just keep on coming. NOT A FORECAST.