ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Too bad there is no Recon available from the Azores.

[SouthDadeFish]

I know this is a few hours old, but this 37GHz Windsat pass shows a very impressive structure:



Looks much better than a 65 knot hurricane even at that time, so it leads me to believe Gordon is stronger than a 70 knot hurricane at this time. Just my opinion.

[littlevince]

loop:

[CrazyC83]

I know this is a few hours old, but this 37GHz Windsat pass shows a very impressive structure:



Looks much better than a 65 knot hurricane even at that time, so it leads me to believe Gordon is stronger than a 70 knot hurricane at this time. Just my opinion.

My guess is 80 kt based on the structure and ADT.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[brunota2003]

Gordon looks good this morning! When was the last time the Azores was under a hurricane warning, let alone impacted by one? I know they get strong winds during the winter from winter storms, but it is summer and everything is leafed out! Two totally different beasts.

[CrazyC83]

Gordon looks good this morning! When was the last time the Azores was under a hurricane warning, let alone impacted by one? I know they get strong winds during the winter from winter storms, but it is summer and everything is leafed out! Two totally different beasts.

Not sure when the last time was - Gordon 2006 maybe?

Much of the Azores is quite mountainous and elevated, and winds will surely be significantly higher with elevation, even if they decrease at the surface.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection continues to deepen:



Still looks good on microwave:

[CrazyC83]

Convection continues to deepen:



Still looks good on microwave:

It's trying to make a run at least at Cat 2...

[HurrMark]

Not bad for a storm heading east in the 30s longitude...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
200 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

...GORDON EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 37.7W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GORDON WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN AZORES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
GORDON REACHES COOLER WATERS ON SUNDAY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN ON SUNDAY...AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN AZORES SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM..MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZORES BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES ON SUNDAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
200 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

...GORDON EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 37.7W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[cycloneye]

18/1745 UTC 34.0N 37.5W T5.0/5.0 GORDON -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 90kts

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Weatherguy173]

is it me or does it have a slight annular structure???

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

18z Best Track up to 90kts

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Well there you have it. Gordon has become the strongest storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season thus far.

[Weatherguy173]

18z Best Track up to 90kts

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Well there you have it. Gordon has become the strongest storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season thus far.

it is not at 90 kts yet. it has a possible track with wind speeds up to 90 kts. it's at 70 kts (80 mph) now unless someone else has another source proving otherwise. the strongest storm so far was ernesto

[senorpepr]

it is not at 90 kts yet. it has a possible track with wind speeds up to 90 kts. it's at 70 kts (80 mph) now unless someone else has another source proving otherwise. the strongest storm so far was ernesto

The best track is the official best track from the NHC. NHC has, tentatively, placed Gordon at 90 kts per the best track.

[CrazyC83]

This is getting serious for the Azores.

[TheEuropean]

Unofficial, but impressive:

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2012 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 34:02:19 N Lon : 36:50:47 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.4mb/102.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -59.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 55.6 degrees

[littlevince]

Hurricane warning was also in the Azores with Gordon/2006 and the effects were much lower than expected.
Archive here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/GORDON.shtml
It would be important that this time reality came closer to predictions, because otherwise, in the future people from Azores will tend to ignore warnings.

Too bad there is no Recon flights in this region. There is an USAF base in Lajes, Terceira Island, would be a good base to flight from there.