ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Dean4Storms]

It would be likely that it misses Hispaniola and then who knows where it tracks from there and how intense it becomes. Looks like it is pretty safe for now to expect this storm in the Eastern Carib. and from there anywhere from the Gulf to the Carolina's is in play.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I don't know about GOM but I do know it's better to be pinned at 200+ hrs than at 72hrs....

Exactly, things will likely change drastically before all is said and done.


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[Weatherfreak000]

Maybe we really are watching a trend? All the models continue to push west.....any further and it will either miss the trof or go into the GOM like Andrew....scary stuff.

[gatorcane]

GFS ensembles tightly clustered:

[boca]

Today it's South Florida tomorrow the northern gom and Monday texas

[Riptide]

Today it's South Florida tomorrow the northern gom and Monday texas

Nope, this is going to form east of 50W; and these cape verde systems are hard-pressed to even reach Florida.

[boca]

Good point but it depends on the ridge

[HurrMark]

Today it's South Florida tomorrow the northern gom and Monday texas

And Tuesday Veracruz

[Riptide]

Today it's South Florida tomorrow the northern gom and Monday texas

And Tuesday Veracruz

Wednesday....dissipation.

[weatherwindow]

12z GFS ... 180 hours ... Moving towards SE Bahamas ... much weaker
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal180.gif

Looks like a hurricane David type track!

Let's see how quickly the GFS ramps it up in the SE Bahamas....

Ridging holding along the Eastern seaboard of the United States...

good catch, Chris....certainly weaker shades of David for Miami-Dade north thru southern PBC..approx 8/29..and fwiw, a landfallling NC hurricane on 8/31 with a decaying stall in western VA...Again of course, these are model representations without personal speculation and certainly are not reliable forecasts at this early date...Rich

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah the patterns are changing and this initial increased speed is allowing to get farther west past that inital weakness and under the other ridging

[Blown Away]

My take on 12z GFS, it appears ridging will keep 94L on a general W path before islands and WNW path after islands through @220 hours. If 94L moves through the NE Caribbean above Hispaniola I think it will reach 80 West and possibly SE GOM within the 220 hours before ridge breaks and N turn begins. More southerly track takes more time, like the 12z GFS advertised, and allows the ridge to break before 94L reaches the 80 West line. The fact that 94L doesn't get recurved and dies over Virginia says to me the ridge may be stronger than advertised. JMHO

[SFLcane]

12z GFS similar to the EURO barely developes 94L moderate TS. Hopefully these trends will continue.

[Riptide]

12z GFS similar to the EURO barely developes 94L moderate TS. Hopefully these trends will continue.

Sir, this is a ridiculous notion to make. GFS ensembles remain largely unchanged and are east of the OP; with modest intensity. Even the operational GFS shows a weak hurricane impacting the islands.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS similar to the EURO barely developes 94L moderate TS. Hopefully these trends will continue.

Yes I am noting that trend. In fact there is big ULL along 55W that could be the reason, perhaps some shear to deal with down the road? The GFS may not be handling the SAL and ULL properly?

[Aric Dunn]

Dont take to much into the intensity from the gfs its notorious for showing full fledged hurricanes as weak waves. it does not do well with intensity.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS similar to the EURO barely developes 94L moderate TS. Hopefully these trends will continue.

A bit weaker on the 12z, but was getting stronger before being crushed by DR and getting stronger as it scrapes SFL. The mountains destroyed it on this run, IMO a Cat 1 as it passes by SFL.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF is running. 48 hours and still weak has 94L heading WNW to NW in the MDR gaining lattitude. High pressure centered north of the Leewards.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS similar to the EURO barely developes 94L moderate TS. Hopefully these trends will continue.

Sir, this is a ridiculous notion to make. GFS ensembles remain largely unchanged and are east of the OP; with modest intensity. Even the operational GFS shows a weak hurricane impacting the islands.

Really? First this is LONG-RANGE we are talking here so any speculation is just that. Last nights european did infact show this as a weak system along with the 12z GFS. Again based on sat trends this afternoon it continues to slowly organize.

edit: Still feel this system is a formidable threat to the islands next week.

[gatorcane]

Still weak on the 12Z ECMWF at 72 hours, bends the system back west. Look at that ridge to the north of it: