ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

IMO, this is a classic CV setup and if 94L deepens before islands it will bounce under the ridge and go above or skirt through the NE Caribbean and if it stays weak it goes into central Caribbean and moves through the big islands. This may be the first real SE CONUS threat in years! JMHO.

Well,I would not be in a happy mode with what the future of this system may unfold down the road. I would be very happy to track a hurricane at open sea without touching any landmass.

[pgoss11]

IMO, this is a classic CV setup and if 94L deepens before islands it will bounce under the ridge and go above or skirt through the NE Caribbean and if it stays weak it goes into central Caribbean and moves through the big islands. This may be the first real SE CONUS threat in years! JMHO.

Hopefully not Hugo Redux

[Blown Away]

WOW, 94L sure does have a big moisture envelope! Isaac is going to be a big boy I think!! Cool shot of 94L moving due W and Gordon moving E almost at same longitude!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[chris46n]

IMO, this is a classic CV setup and if 94L deepens before islands it will bounce under the ridge and go above or skirt through the NE Caribbean and if it stays weak it goes into central Caribbean and moves through the big islands. This may be the first real SE CONUS threat in years! JMHO.

Dude you have short memory. Do you remember hurricane Irene 2011????

[pgoss11]

IMO, this is a classic CV setup and if 94L deepens before islands it will bounce under the ridge and go above or skirt through the NE Caribbean and if it stays weak it goes into central Caribbean and moves through the big islands. This may be the first real SE CONUS threat in years! JMHO.

Dude you have short memory. Do you remember hurricane Irene 2011????

Here in the SE we didn't have it as bad as the Mid Atlantic and Northeast had it. I'm in Charleston SC and we just had some squally weather and some rain and wind, but nothing bad. Irene just scraped us.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest NHC 72 hours Surface Forecast

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Off topic, but with so many new people coming to this site, it should be said again. You shouldn't call a storm by a name, until it has been officially given a name. Gordon/Helene should have taught you that. Also, and more importantly, unless you are a pro-met, you are required to post a disclaimer any time you make a prediction about a storm. Statements that have the phrases "I think", "It will", "probably" or variations are all predictions. Heck, if you are not sure, just post the disclaimer anyway. There are a lot of new people that will come to this board because they have heard how good it is or just stumbled on it, and with all the technical discussion will think everyone is making qualified predictions and could panic. Is it any wonder new people come to the board and the first thing they post is a "where is this going" question?

[cycloneye]

94L SSD Floater is up

There you go Aric!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[ROCK]

The topic says 94L so anyone posting or reading this thread realizes this is not named yet...doesn't really matter what you call it at this point...all guidance suggest a named entity by Monday...we have the disclaimer so really there shouldn't be any issue..

[ROCK]

94L SSD Floater is up

There you go Aric!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

About time!!! Thank you NHC..

[cycloneye]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Looking a the structure of the system now I think it will form very soon which means you can throw out the Euro solution which doesn't develope the system at all and even the GFS solution which develops the system much later.

[Kingarabian]

Really close to TD status if not one IMO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Should be classified in the morning if current convective trends continue.

[islandgirl45]

IMO, this is a classic CV setup and if 94L deepens before islands it will bounce under the ridge and go above or skirt through the NE Caribbean and if it stays weak it goes into central Caribbean and moves through the big islands. This may be the first real SE CONUS threat in years! JMHO.

Yeah, yippee. I live in an older house in east central FL. Can't say I'm thrilled about the potential for a large hurricane to drop by.

[OuterBanker]

Blown Away. Just move to the OBX you will have plenty of action.

I would be nice to have this year off after Irene. We also don't care for "I" storms.

Isabel created and new inlet that we filled back in, Irene created a new one that we built a bridge over.

On top of that according to Dr Bob and Ryan Maue in their climatological probability page 94L has an overall 18% probability of US land fall. With NC as number 1 @ 14%.

As an optimist it means an 86% it won't hit here

[psyclone]

very impressive convective blossoming by d-min standards. this thing looks like it wants to go.

[Zanthe]

IMO, this is a classic CV setup and if 94L deepens before islands it will bounce under the ridge and go above or skirt through the NE Caribbean and if it stays weak it goes into central Caribbean and moves through the big islands. This may be the first real SE CONUS threat in years! JMHO.

Irene was a pretty big SE CONUS threat for a while there...before it decided not to be.

[jinftl]

Afternoon discussion from Dr. Masters on 94L...just like any system, this one may have to deal with some degree of shear and dry air at times, but Dr. M seems to think 94L will overcome it. Quite honestly, any slowing of the deveolopment process just means a system that will make it further west on the low level flow and that could be the thing we don't want to see!

I will say, I have rarely seen Dr. Masters be as bold as to say this far out that the system has a 60% chance of passing through the Lesser Antilles at unspecified intensity.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7.

The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2192

[Incoming!]

Hopefully not Hugo Redux

Hopefully not indeed! I'm watching this one closely. She seems to be forming quite nicely.