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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12501 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2012 3:23 pm

This afternoon discussion of 94L by Dr Jeff Masters.

Update on 94L
A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 28°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. Satellite loops show that 94L has increased in organization this afternoon, with a growing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin at middle levels of the atmosphere.


Forecast for 94L
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will fluctuate around 28°C over the next five days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm to the northwest well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model. The 12Z UKMET model shows a more west-northwesterly motion resulting in a near miss of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 24 hours, though. The latest 12Z run of both models now agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is also showing a track through the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12502 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2012 6:47 pm

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook up to 60%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12503 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2012 7:43 pm

8 PM Discussion.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE ERN ATLC ALONG
30W...WITH A ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N30W EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
30W-33W. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL
MODELS HAS A WWD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. INTERESTS
ACROSS THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE ATLC.
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12504 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:59 am

Good morning. We keep watching invest 94L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN WILL
MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BECOMING NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO BY TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID
WEEK. A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. DRIER AIR...ALREADY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...IS SET TO MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
BRING SOME CLEARING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL CARRYING MOISTURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH WHERE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW FROM THE EAST MAY BRING IT BACK
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS GENERATED
FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA.

MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
WAVE THAT WAS NEAR 35 WEST AT 19/09Z. BUT...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED THE WAVE IS ADVANCING UNIMPEDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLIER AND EARLIER. AT PRESENT THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT
RATHER SLOWLY...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL ARRIVE THEN OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND AFRICAN DUST STREAMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WAVE IS LIKELY SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT JUST AS IT
HAS THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ENDEAVORED TO STRENGTHEN.
ALSO THE WAVE IN QUESTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT THE EXPENSE OF
THE WAVE AHEAD OF IT WHICH IT IS OVERTAKING. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND THE POPS OVER A MORE GENERAL
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING THE CURRENT TIMING TO
INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION WITHOUT EXPLICITLY DEFINING THE CENTER OR
TRACK...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO VEER NORTH AND TO
SPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
FRIDAY...THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WITH REGARDS TO
THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS
ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY AND HAZY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL 19/13Z. AFTER 19/13Z...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 19/16Z...LEFT OUT OF
TAF DUE TO POP LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AND SAHARAN DUST LIMITING
CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND LATEST ASCAT
PASS SHOWED NO WINDS GREATER THAN 17 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY CONDITIONS REQUIRING CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING
LATER TUESDAY AND BECOMING HAZARDOUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECISE
MAGNITUDE IS NOT YET KNOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO POSE A RISK TO ALL MARINERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 30 30 30
STT 91 80 90 80 / 20 30 20 30
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12505 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:20 am

This is the analysis of the possible effects by 94L in Puerto Rico made by TV Met Ada Monzon.

DETAILED analysis of the INVEST 94 L - Sunday, August 19, 2012Summary: Based on the GFS forecast and other models (European, HWRF, GFDL, etc.): If the guides are correct, on Thursday may be happening a tropical depression or storm (Isaac) very close to the South coast of Puerto Rico. (Eye: everything can change because as you know always there are variations in the forecasts, both path and intensity, and I do them this summary and warning for the sole purpose of you keep your attention to changes over time in the coming days.)

ITINERARY: From the afternoon of Wednesday, and through all the night must be increased (15-25 mph) breeze, even the arrival of rain bands. However, on Thursday from the morning the wind should increase of 25-45 mph with higher gusts, depending on how close or intense pass future cyclonic system of our coasts. In the evening of Thursday will already decrease the wind. In short, during hours of the day Thursday is that we will have the event of wind and rain, before noon. (Certainly it depends on its translational motion, and therefore this forecast may change)

STRUCTURE: I remind you that forecasts are based to a focal point, but this phenomenon is not a dot on a map, but a wide area of clouds, winds and rains. Therefore, even if the Center passes of 30-100 miles on the South coast, will have effects of rain and windy with very dangerous waves on Thursday. At the time its satellite presentation needs to mature, or needs sustain thunderstorm and clothe the center of circulation or low pressure. If you follow how it goes, you can achieve classification of tropical depression 9 today. The quantities of rain associated with the passage of a phenomenon like this South of PR may vary, but we expect accumulations of 1-4 "/ 24 with this picture.

"TRACK: I think that no major changes have occurred in trajectory forecasts. Virtually all models indicate that your travel will be by the waters of the Caribbean Sea; crossing the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, and passing just to the South of PR in the early morning on Thursday. I will continue to evaluate this.

INTENSITY: Have been changes in intensity forecasts. Models NO longer see a hurricane for our area. It may be in response to four factors: A trough in the high strains of the atmosphere which will take place near 55 ° W, the fact that come moving quickly westward, dust from the Sahara to the North-West of the system, and that has not started other tropical waves which then subtract you energy. This contrasts the factor of waters of high-calorie that face between 50 - 60 ° O. Intensity guides are concentrating on that may be a storm when near PR.

NOTICES: That depends on that threat has winds for PR, and is a long way yet to determine. In addition this determined exclusively the National Hurricane Center and the national service of meteorology of San Juan. There are no warnings issued. Some reminder occur it would be from Tuesday to Wednesday.
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12506 Postby msbee » Sun Aug 19, 2012 8:24 am

current models:

Image
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12507 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:03 am

msbee wrote:current models:

Image

Hopefully it's virtual Barbara :) , because of the Butterfy island don't like these type of path :eek: . But what is a bit surprising... is the trajectories near the 60W, all seem to go straight west even drifting wsw given the LBAR, BAMD , bringing a "final" path directly on Guadeloupe. :?: :spam: It's just a run, plenty of time to see what could really happen :) .
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12508 Postby Jimsot » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:25 am

It appears we will ALL see unsettled conditions from WED right through the weekend. What we do not know is the intensity. I suspect that light lawn furniture and such will have to be stowed, but storm shutters will not be needed. Very likely cisterns will all be filled again. Must be watched!
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12509 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:49 am

This morning's discussion of 94L by Dr Jeff Masters.

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast for 94L

The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12510 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:07 pm

Up to 70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12511 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 2:28 pm

From this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

MEDIUM RANGE...WE ARE MONITORING A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND
SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. ALL
INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY.
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#12512 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:39 pm

WEATHER. Very poor air quality expected today

franceantilles.fr 19.08.2012
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183157.php

The mists of sand from the Sahara currently crossing our islands are not without consequences on the quality of the air. The ATMO index was 9 (bad), yesterday at 16: 00. It could grow to 10 (very bad) today. Caution for frail people


The mists of sand from the Sahara are well present on our archipelago. The ATMO index, the index of the quality of the air, based on the concentrations of 4 pollutants (nitrogen, Ozone, sulphur dioxide and dust less dioxide of 10 microns), is by
therefore high. Yesterday, at 4 p.m., it was calculated to 9: index bad - concentration of 76 micrograms / cubic metre. The phenomenon should increase with an expected 10 index (very bad).
Note that the dust of less than 10 microns may have irritant action on the respiratory tract (cough, genes respiratory asthma attack, eye irritation) of sensitive persons (infants, elderly, asthma, allergies, chronic respiratory deficient, inadequate cardiac). They may have nasal and respiratory irritation or an increase in dust-related respiratory effects: gene to inspiration, reduced respiratory capacity, aggravation of existing respiratory pathologies.
It is best to avoid physical activity and intense sports may enhance respiratory diseases by increasing the volume of inhaled air and especially avoid these activities near the roads. Light physical activities and outputs outside are not prohibited.
More information on http://www.gwadair.fr
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12513 Postby Macrocane » Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:10 pm

It's important to monitor every system if it doesn't get much stronger than a TD. I read today an article about the 1985 floods and landslides in Puerto Rico and they were caused by "just" a tropical wave, fortunately they islands re better prepared today than in the 80's but every systems needs to be watched carefully. Take care guys, hopefully it will produce only some showers and nothing more.

In other news, I have finished my graduation thesis, I'm just waiting for the final corrections and the grades, hopefully everything's gonna be OK with it, so now I have a little more time and I will try to post the temperatures in Central America more often. These are the temperatures registered on August 18, 2012.

Minimum Temperatures

Cooler than normal in El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala and Costa Rica. Warmer than normal in Nicaragua.

Belize city, Belize 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.7°C (40.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Cooler than normal in Panama. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.6°C (78.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33.5°C (92.3°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.9°C (94.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.6°C (81.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.3°C (55.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.1°C (77.2°F)
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Re: Caribbean - C America: Watching invest 94L in East Atlantic

#12514 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:59 pm

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook up to 80%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Watching invest 94L east of Lesser Antilles

#12515 Postby FireBird » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:08 pm

Keeping an eye on 94L and waiting to see what it'll do.
In the meantime, my more immediate concern is the wave ahead with a weak low at 11N48W.
We really got badly hit last weekend, and the clean up is ongoing.
Hearing more stories about all the losses and people are struggling to cope.
Some are so distraught about their pets that drowned or got swept away that they can;t even bring themselves to work on restoring their homes just yet.
We really did not have a dry season in Trinidad, and the place is still waterlogged. The landslides are frightening to look at on the surrounding hills.
I don;t know what's gonna happen if all that moisture remains and we get dumped with rain.
I am very concerned...
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Watching invest 94L east of Lesser Antilles

#12516 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:10 pm

FireBird wrote:Keeping an eye on 94L and waiting to see what it'll do.
In the meantime, my more immediate concern is the wave ahead with a weak low at 11N48W.
We really got badly hit last weekend, and the clean up is ongoing.
Hearing more stories about all the losses and people are struggling to cope.
Some are so distraught about their pets that drowned or got swept away that they can;t even bring themselves to work on restoring their homes just yet.
We really did not have a dry season in Trinidad, and the place is still waterlogged. The landslides are frightening to look at on the surrounding hills.
I don;t know what's gonna happen if all that moisture remains and we get dumped with rain.
I am very concerned...


Hi my friend. Yeah,T&T went thru a big flooding event last week and let's hope that none of these systems move thru over there and do more damage.
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Watching invest 94L east of Lesser Antilles

#12517 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:40 am

Good morning. Here is the latest regarding what effects will occur as 94L or more than that moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BE
PUSHED WEST BY ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE
INTO A POSITION 950 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. IT WILL
DRIFT NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO IN CONTROL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND FILL THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. A
TROUGH NEAR 57 WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE
WEAKENING. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST WILL CROSS THROUGH
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF DEVELOPING A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER 50 WEST AT MID LEVELS ON THURSDAY BUT
WEAKEN BEFORE MOVING ACROSS 60 WEST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS SURROUNDING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...BUT LITTLE RAIN OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS SEEN. A WEAK TROUGH
HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 57 WEST AND IS FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR 53 WEST ALL MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AT AROUND 20
KNOTS. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE BY TUESDAY BUT MAY BE WEAKER THAN THEY
ARE NOW.

BEHIND THIS IS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST LATITUDE. IT IS ENSHROUDED
TO THE NORTH BY A MODERATELY THICK CLOUD OF DUST AND HAS BOTH A STRONG
FEED OF MOISTURE IN ITS EASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND IT COUNTER CLOCKWISE AND COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS DRIER...DUST LADEN AIR HAS LIKELY BEEN THE CULPRIT
THAT HAS CONFOUNDED THE MODELS PERSISTENT FORECASTS OF DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24 HOURS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS SAID DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND LIKELY BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...EVEN THOUGH
THE GFS IS VERY AMBIVALENT ABOUT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 700
MB...EVEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST STRADDLES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE AND
A TROPICAL STORM PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO MOST
OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY SPREADING OVER THE ATLANTIC DEPENDING ON HOW THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS...AND CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PROBLEM OF WHETHER A
TROPICAL STORM WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP OR WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS STILL NUDGING THE LOW PRESSURE...
THAT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...AHEAD IN TIME AS TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS DELAYED. NEVERTHELESS WE EXPECT SERIOUS RAIN TO BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING EFFECTS INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE INTERIM.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS INCREASE...
EXPECT SEAS TO FOLLOW ALSO SUCH THAT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 12 FEET IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. MARINERS SHOULD SEEK FURTHER DETAILS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AND THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE EAST AFTER SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
INCREASING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON
WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY WITH AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 6 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY LOW...RAPID RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED AND SOME RIVERS AND MANY SMALL STREAM WILL LIKELY FLOOD
DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A THREAT OF MUDSLIDES
ALSO EXISTS. SHOULD A TROPICAL STORM FORM...THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
RECEIVED WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND COULD BE
EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 80 / 20 30 20 40
STT 91 80 90 81 / 20 20 20 40
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ISAAC: Prep,Obs,Cams at L Antilles / BVI / USVI / PR

#12518 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:47 am

I think is time to have this important thread up for the folks who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands to post about how the goverments are preparing for whatever this system becomes. Also the members can post observations as the system approaches if the internet allowes of course. And also the different alerts and discussions from the weather offices.

Link to see Web Cams and radars from the islands.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BE
PUSHED WEST BY ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE
INTO A POSITION 950 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. IT WILL
DRIFT NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO IN CONTROL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND FILL THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. A
TROUGH NEAR 57 WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE
WEAKENING. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST WILL CROSS THROUGH
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF DEVELOPING A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER 50 WEST AT MID LEVELS ON THURSDAY BUT
WEAKEN BEFORE MOVING ACROSS 60 WEST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS SURROUNDING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...BUT LITTLE RAIN OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS SEEN. A WEAK TROUGH
HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 57 WEST AND IS FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR 53 WEST ALL MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AT AROUND 20
KNOTS. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE BY TUESDAY BUT MAY BE WEAKER THAN THEY
ARE NOW.

BEHIND THIS IS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST LATITUDE. IT IS ENSHROUDED
TO THE NORTH BY A MODERATELY THICK CLOUD OF DUST AND HAS BOTH A STRONG
FEED OF MOISTURE IN ITS EASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND IT COUNTER CLOCKWISE AND COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS DRIER...DUST LADEN AIR HAS LIKELY BEEN THE CULPRIT
THAT HAS CONFOUNDED THE MODELS PERSISTENT FORECASTS OF DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24 HOURS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS SAID DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND LIKELY BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...EVEN THOUGH
THE GFS IS VERY AMBIVALENT ABOUT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 700
MB...EVEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST STRADDLES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE AND
A TROPICAL STORM PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO MOST
OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY SPREADING OVER THE ATLANTIC DEPENDING ON HOW THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS...AND CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PROBLEM OF WHETHER A
TROPICAL STORM WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP OR WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS STILL NUDGING THE LOW PRESSURE...
THAT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...AHEAD IN TIME AS TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS DELAYED. NEVERTHELESS WE EXPECT SERIOUS RAIN TO BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING EFFECTS INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE INTERIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS INCREASE...
EXPECT SEAS TO FOLLOW ALSO SUCH THAT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 12 FEET IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. MARINERS SHOULD SEEK FURTHER DETAILS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AND THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE EAST AFTER SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
INCREASING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON
WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY WITH AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 6 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY LOW...RAPID RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED AND SOME RIVERS AND MANY SMALL STREAM WILL LIKELY FLOOD
DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A THREAT OF MUDSLIDES
ALSO EXISTS. SHOULD A TROPICAL STORM FORM...THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
RECEIVED WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND COULD BE
EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 80 / 20 30 20 40
STT 91 80 90 81 / 20 20 20 40
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#12519 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:08 am

Thanks to you Cylconeye :). That's a very nice and informative thread for us.

Concerning 94L, here are the lastest weather forecasts for Guadeloupe during the next 5 days. Given our Prome Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, looks like wet weather conditions should begin Wednesday and continues... till Saturday :oops: :roll: if this verifies, hope that not :) but... who knows.


Forecast for Wednesday, August 22:The passage on the Caribbean arc of a very active tropical wave, up here there develop into depression or tropical storm, causes a strong deterioration of the weather Wednesday. The haze of sand disappears, leaving room for overcast skies, bringing frequent thundery showers. The wind strengthens a bit in moving to the Northeast. The sea is widening in the Atlantic with hollow of 2 m 20 in a northeast swell direction .

Trend for Thursday 23 August:The weather remains very perturbed Thursday. Sustained and thundery showers occur regularly on our archipelago.
The wind of about 25 km/h, veer Southeast. The sea decreases at 1 m 80.

Trend for Friday, August 24 and Saturday 25 August:Rain and thunderstorms are again in tape Friday and Saturday. Southeast wind wanes. The sea continues to decrease.
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Re: 94L: Preparations,Obs at Lesser Antilles / BVI / USVI/ PR

#12520 Postby HurricaneFan » Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:21 am

But isn't it moving too fast for that to come through?(20-25mph)
I know it is huge,but with that speed,as far as I can see it will leave the Leeward Islands by Late Thursday morning :P
What do you think?
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