ATL: ISAAC - Models

[cycloneye]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 190045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120819 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120819  0000   120819  1200   120820  0000   120820  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  32.6W   15.1N  35.9W   15.9N  39.5W   16.6N  43.6W
BAMD    14.2N  32.6W   14.7N  35.5W   15.2N  38.3W   15.7N  40.9W
BAMM    14.2N  32.6W   15.1N  35.8W   15.8N  39.1W   16.5N  42.6W
LBAR    14.2N  32.6W   14.9N  36.1W   15.5N  39.7W   16.2N  43.5W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          50KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120821  0000   120822  0000   120823  0000   120824  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  48.0W   18.1N  57.3W   18.6N  66.5W   18.2N  74.5W
BAMD    16.1N  43.7W   16.6N  49.1W   16.3N  53.6W   15.3N  55.5W
BAMM    17.3N  46.4W   18.3N  54.4W   19.1N  62.5W   20.3N  69.4W
LBAR    16.9N  47.0W   17.8N  54.1W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        57KTS          70KTS          72KTS          72KTS
DSHP        57KTS          70KTS          72KTS          72KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR =  32.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  13.2N LONM12 =  28.7W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  11.9N LONM24 =  25.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Cyclenall]

Speaking of models and how they don't do well with intensity (globals that is), just look at Gordon. Did any of the recent runs over the last few days suggest that Gordon would reach 110 mph?

The GFS did, I saw that Global really deepening it as it was nearing the Azores.

The HWRF showed nothing special but confirms the west movement into the Caribbean. I see the intensity graph hasn't been posted yet:



All of them predict a hurricane and over half of them a major hurricane.

[Riptide]

18z GFS Ensembles tracks, almost evenly divided between the Carribean and Bahamas, with the majority still suggesting recurve.

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 190045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120819 0000 UTC


 ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120819  0000   120819  1200   120820  0000   120820  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  32.6W   15.1N  35.9W   15.9N  39.5W   16.6N  43.6W
BAMD    14.2N  32.6W   14.7N  35.5W   15.2N  38.3W   15.7N  40.9W
BAMM    14.2N  32.6W   15.1N  35.8W   15.8N  39.1W   16.5N  42.6W
LBAR    14.2N  32.6W   14.9N  36.1W   15.5N  39.7W   16.2N  43.5W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          50KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120821  0000   120822  0000   120823  0000   120824  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  48.0W   18.1N  57.3W   18.6N  66.5W   18.2N  74.5W
BAMD    16.1N  43.7W   16.6N  49.1W   16.3N  53.6W   15.3N  55.5W
BAMM    17.3N  46.4W   18.3N  54.4W   19.1N  62.5W   20.3N  69.4W
LBAR    16.9N  47.0W   17.8N  54.1W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        57KTS          70KTS          72KTS          72KTS
DSHP        57KTS          70KTS          72KTS          72KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR =  32.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  13.2N LONM12 =  28.7W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  11.9N LONM24 =  25.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Takes it north of the islands now, are the models forecasting a weaker ridge now?

[blp]

18z GFDL keeps it weak as well and slams into Domincan Republic. Kudos to the Euro who started the trend of weak runs.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/20 ... .anim.html

[Weatherfreak000]

Maybe CMC onto something because it could pull up and away. The facts are this invest has organized in a hurry and lifted farther north than expected. Hmmm...

[jinftl]

If you want to see how much can change from one model run to the next run 6 hours later...

The latest model runs - none show 94L intensifying past Cat 1 intensity



6 hours ago, we saw some of these same models calling for Cat 3 intensity. Take a look above, those models are now calling for strong ts/cat 1 intensity (match the colors...lol)

[cycloneye]

The 00z Tracks.

[meriland23]

this is all too flibbity floobitty. 06 GFS suggested it riding up the east c. slamming into the NE as a major hurricane. Now, only two runs later it takes it into the carribean and dissipates it. Just goes to show you really DO need to take these models with a grain of salt this far out. The only thing we really should do is pay attention to anything ahead of it that may hinder/or motivate it further.. as for invest itself, it is all up in the air.. it will do what it wants to do.

[jinftl]

GFDL and BAMD and LBAR models shown drop 94L...

The 00z Tracks.

[rainstorm]

is the gfdl showing dissipation?

[Shuriken]

Judging from sat, the LLC is going to form at 15N or higher, so the models are initiating too low.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Kingarabian]

this is all too flibbity floobitty. 06 GFS suggested it riding up the east c. slamming into the NE as a major hurricane. Now, only two runs later it takes it into the carribean and dissipates it. Just goes to show you really DO need to take these models with a grain of salt this far out. The only thing we really should do is pay attention to anything ahead of it that may hinder/or motivate it further.. as for invest itself, it is all up in the air.. it will do what it wants to do.

Yep.

Anyway, relocating its center to 15N may allow it to come closer to that huge pool of SAL and cause it to stay weak until it clears...By that time, it would be to late to be pulled NE without it affecting major land masses. I think if it stays this low it could wrap up rather quickly and eventually be pulled NE without affecting anything.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

is the gfdl showing dissipation?

Just about..Has an open wave through the carib.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2012081818-invest94l/slp.anim.html

[FutureEM]

is the gfdl showing dissipation?

Just about..Has an open wave through the carib.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2012081818-invest94l/slp.anim.html

Look at how weak it initializes Gordon though, I'm not putting much faith in the GFDL.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z NAM enters the system into the Eastern Caribbean in 84 hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[rainstorm]

00Z NAM enters the system into the Eastern Caribbean in 84 hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

if thats true then its moving too fast and would dissipate.

[Fego]

GFS running. Straight to the West at 33 hrs.

[Fego]

Still due West at 78 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

at 84 hrs on the 0ZGFS its starting to gain a little latitude