ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

It's really not surprising that the models have eased up on intensity. The Eastern part of the MDR is not and has not been favorable for development this season due to an abundance of dry air. The dry air is not as intense currently as it was when TD7 formed (struggled) and that is why 94L is looking more healthy. However, it is just not conducive enough for fast strengthening. As 94L gets closer to the islands, it will have a better chance of strengthening at a faster rate. One thing I noticed in the 18z run of the SHIPS is that shear picks up dramatically towards the end of the run. It could be seeing an increase in shear due to the semi-permanent TUTT axis NE of the island chain. That is one thing to consider.

El Nino years are not very favorable for fast strengthening storms in the Eastern Atlantic. Conditions are typically much more favorable north of 20N and west of 55W. This shouldn't be a huge year in the MDR. Further north has been the trend and it should stay that way.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

I don't really think us here in the NGOM will have much to worry about regardless. However, I have to disagree in regards to 94L because it appears to be spinning up rapidly. Gordon was similar in that it organized so quickly off Africa that it shot North, and although 94L won't do that I am seeing what I believe is a center reformation that will push 94L to about 15N. As far as what that means for us in the GOM it probably means it will miss the GOM entirely. Honestly though, if the GFS is correct 2 other areas of interest should occur after 94L so there should be plenty of areas to watch.

As far as 94L though, I think it is a depression and should become quite strong indeed. East Coast might want to watch out though, never know where this thing will go so far out.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

It's really not surprising that the models have eased up on intensity. The Eastern part of the MDR is not and has not been favorable for development this season due to an abundance of dry air. The dry air is not as intense currently as it was when TD7 formed (struggled) and that is why 94L is looking more healthy. However, it is just not conducive enough for fast strengthening. As 94L gets closer to the islands, it will have a better chance of strengthening at a faster rate. One thing I noticed in the 18z run of the SHIPS is that shear picks up dramatically towards the end of the run. It could be seeing an increase in shear due to the semi-permanent TUTT axis NE of the island chain. That is one thing to consider.

El Nino years are not very favorable for fast strengthening storms in the Eastern Atlantic. Conditions are typically much more favorable north of 20N and west of 55W. This shouldn't be a huge year in the MDR. Further north has been the trend and it should stay that way.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

It is NOT an El Nino year. At all. We are currently in ENSO NEUTRAL. Please look here to read about the current and forecast season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/

[rainstorm]

you still think it will spin up quickly?

It already clearly is. I don't know who could look at that circulation and not think so.

I HOPE it can break the 2012 trend.

[cycloneye]

Ok guys,let's not stray to off topic things. There is an ENSO Updates thread at Talking Tropics forum where you can talk all you want about that,thanks for your cooperation.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&p=2251814#p2251814

[MississippiWx]

It's really not surprising that the models have eased up on intensity. The Eastern part of the MDR is not and has not been favorable for development this season due to an abundance of dry air. The dry air is not as intense currently as it was when TD7 formed (struggled) and that is why 94L is looking more healthy. However, it is just not conducive enough for fast strengthening. As 94L gets closer to the islands, it will have a better chance of strengthening at a faster rate. One thing I noticed in the 18z run of the SHIPS is that shear picks up dramatically towards the end of the run. It could be seeing an increase in shear due to the semi-permanent TUTT axis NE of the island chain. That is one thing to consider.

El Nino years are not very favorable for fast strengthening storms in the Eastern Atlantic. Conditions are typically much more favorable north of 20N and west of 55W. This shouldn't be a huge year in the MDR. Further north has been the trend and it should stay that way.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

It is NOT an El Nino year. At all. We are currently in ENSO NEUTRAL. Please look here to read about the current and forecast season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/

It is and has been an El Nino year for some time now. Just because the CPC hasn't declared it doesn't mean we don't have the conditions. Yes, the shear has been near average and yes it has been a little slower in onset than originally thought. However, the MEI, which factors in all of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions, puts 2012 in the top 5 for strongest developing El Ninos. The atmospheric circulation is very similar now to an El Nino. Thus, the continuous drop in the SOI. Thus, the typical cyclogenesis pattern we have seen this year. It's no coincidence.

The CPC says a full blown El Nino should be declared by September. Well, the CPC likes to have El Nino conditions for 3 months before an official declaration. It's almost that time.

[cycloneye]

It's really not surprising that the models have eased up on intensity. The Eastern part of the MDR is not and has not been favorable for development this season due to an abundance of dry air. The dry air is not as intense currently as it was when TD7 formed (struggled) and that is why 94L is looking more healthy. However, it is just not conducive enough for fast strengthening. As 94L gets closer to the islands, it will have a better chance of strengthening at a faster rate. One thing I noticed in the 18z run of the SHIPS is that shear picks up dramatically towards the end of the run. It could be seeing an increase in shear due to the semi-permanent TUTT axis NE of the island chain. That is one thing to consider.

El Nino years are not very favorable for fast strengthening storms in the Eastern Atlantic. Conditions are typically much more favorable north of 20N and west of 55W. This shouldn't be a huge year in the MDR. Further north has been the trend and it should stay that way.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

It is NOT an El Nino year. At all. We are currently in ENSO NEUTRAL. Please look here to read about the current and forecast season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/

It is and has been an El Nino year for some time now. Just because the CPC hasn't declared it doesn't mean we don't have the conditions. Yes, the shear has been near average and yes it has been a little slower in onset than originally thought. However, the MEI, which factors in all of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions, puts 2012 in the top 5 for strongest developing El Ninos. The atmospheric circulation is very similar now to an El Nino. Thus, the continuous drop in the SOI. Thus, the typical cyclogenesis pattern we have seen this year. It's no coincidence.

The CPC says a full blown El Nino should be declared by September. Well, the CPC likes to have El Nino conditions for 3 months before an official declaration. It's almost that time.

Ok guys,let's not stray to off topic things. There is an ENSO Updates thread at Talking Tropics forum where you can talk all you want about that,thanks for your cooperation.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&p=2251814#p2251814

[MississippiWx]

Ok guys,let's not stray to off topic things. There is an ENSO Updates thread at Talking Tropics forum where you can talk all you want about that,thanks for your cooperation.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&p=2251814#p2251814

Apologies. That will be my last post on ENSO.

[MississippiWx]

It's just very difficult for systems to develop quickly when they are moving at 15-20kts. 94L is doing this, just like the rest of the African waves have this season. Factor in the SAL/dust, it's not a great recipe for fast development. 94L has been gradually becoming better organized, not quickly, and that trend should continue for the next couple of days. I certainly see a tropical storm before the islands, but no hurricane.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

[Weatherfreak000]

I will say this though, if circulations are beating the odds in a developing El Nino environment, like 94L, and are winning that battle, is that not a tad disconcerting? I saw a pro met earlier post basically the guy said this thing looks like a TD and I definitely concur...I mean, are we so sure here the only reason the NHC HASN'T pulled the trigger on this is because no QS? I am starting to think we might wake up to another classic "Straight to TS" scenarios....I hate to get political but funding just doesn't ever go where it needs to in our society it seems.

Sorry for the rant, I just can't help but notice the "If 94L is strong this season is gonna be bad" as opposed to "Oh wow 94L pooped out, chalk it up to another El Nino let's get a better hobby" thought that definitely seems to be deep in mind. Ernesto was interesting too because it was very weak but when it took off....goodness gracious did it take off, if you'd have gave him 24 more hours over water he might have been retired.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AJC3]

<snip>

...I mean, are we so sure here the only reason the NHC HASN'T pulled the trigger on this is because no QS? I am starting to think we might wake up to another classic "Straight to TS" scenarios....I hate to get political but funding just doesn't ever go where it needs to in our society it seems.

Not sure where you were trying to go with the NHC aspect of 94L, however, if you read a couple of my previous posts, you'll see that I think, at the very least, there is serious doubt as to whether it has a closed ground-relative wind center due to its fast forward speed. It clearly has a well-defined vort center, which shows up in both the CIMSS analyses and SSM/I images that others have posted here. While ASCAT is inconclusive, it does show that the wave is elongated, as most fast moving waves are, in a SW-NE orientation.

And the "straight to TS" syndrome is almost invariably an unavoidable consequence of fast forward speed. I've touched upon this in previous posts...you shouldn't have to go back too far in my post history to read my last one on this subject.

[Hurricane Alexis]

This could end up being like Emily from last year.

[MississippiWx]

<snip>

...I mean, are we so sure here the only reason the NHC HASN'T pulled the trigger on this is because no QS? I am starting to think we might wake up to another classic "Straight to TS" scenarios....I hate to get political but funding just doesn't ever go where it needs to in our society it seems.

Not sure where you were trying to go with the NHC aspect of 94L, however, if you read a couple of my previous posts, you'll see that I think, at the very least, there is serious doubt as to whether it has a closed ground-relative wind center due to its fast forward speed. It clearly has a well-defined vort center, which shows up in both the CIMSS analyses and SSM/I images that others have posted here. While ASCAT is inconclusive, it does show that the wave is elongated, as most fast moving waves are, in a SW-NE orientation.

And the "straight to TS" syndrome is almost invariably an unavoidable consequence of fast forward speed. I've touched upon this in previous posts...you shouldn't have to go back too far in my post history to read my last one on this subject.

Well said, I agree completely.

[psyclone]

it's tough to ignore the overwhelming bearishness of the models. i was confident this was gonna go but maybe not. maybe tomorrow they'll flip the other way again. regardless of what ultimately becomes of 94L, we're at the time of year where we probably won't have to wait long for something else to pop. at the moment, 94L continues to look interesting.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

T numbers are up

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/0545 UTC 14.1N 34.6W T1.0/1.0 94L
18/2345 UTC 13.8N 33.7W TOO WEAK 94L

[Cyclenall]

I am a met. I just haven't asked for the designation here yet but will pretty soon.

Come' on, THREE years!

However, the MEI, which factors in all of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions, puts 2012 in the top 5 for strongest developing El Ninos. The atmospheric circulation is very similar now to an El Nino.

I know this is for a different topic, but what?

Left unchanged:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

*Cut*

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ROCK]

clouds tops are warming, SAL is enduring developement ala EURO.....this will take some time to wrap up.....

[hurricanes1234]

Why do these waves keep moving so quickly? If all the waves keep racing westward, like this one, they may not be able to strengthen much and we might end up with a bunch of weak tropical storms by the end of the season.

_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Why do these waves keep moving so quickly? If all the waves keep racing westward, like this one, they may not be able to strengthen much and we might end up with a bunch of weak tropical storms by the end of the season.

_____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Keep watching. It always starts out this way and then BOOM the waves slow down and we get large major hurricanes. The height of the season is still approaching...

[GCANE]

Core is being compressed vertically due to a relatively weak 200mb PV anomaly SW of the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_TANO.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

May not see too much strengthening in the next 24 hrs.

[GCANE]

It looks like it has a ton of bounday-layer high theta-e air to work with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Not going poof any time soon.