ATL: 12N/47W

[Shuriken]

The red circle in the upper-right is Invest 94; the circle out ahead of it now has an apparent storm-relative circulation on IR2: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir2.html

-- This obviously will have implications on the future track on i94 as the two systems crowd each other.

[meriland23]

huh that is is new, so in way will this interfere with invest?

[abajan]

@Shuriken
We (especially those of us in the Lesser Antilles, due to our proximity to the said area) certainly appreciate your "heads up" on this but as the system is not at least an Invest, this topic will surely be moved to the Talkin' Tropics forum by a Mod.

[Shuriken]

@Shuriken
We (especially those of us in the Lesser Antilles, due to our proximity to the said area) certainly appreciate your "heads up" on this but as the system is not at least an Invest, this topic will surely be moved to the Talkin' Tropics forum by a Mod.

Good time as any to state that I dislike these annoying forum separations....IMO any storm which is currently existent is "active". (It's a real pain when a storm Invests, then delists but then re-intensifies one or more times...back/forth/back/forth, etc.)

Title-labeling should make it clear enough what's more, or less, important -- with important ones being stickied.

(Is there a "pouch" on this system yet??)

[Shuriken]

huh that is is new, so in way will this interfere with invest?

When two CV systems in this sort of orientation interact, usually the trailing, higher-latitude system will shank off to north of whatever track it was previously on (so, in this case, Invest 94 would move WNW rather than W), while the leading, lower-latitude system will move west. If a fast-moving trailing system passes vary close to a leading, slower storm, it may draw up/Fujiwar the leading system in behind it (leading to two recurving fish storms running up past Bermuda). <-- this assumes neither system cannibalizes the other (which could also happen).

[rainstorm]

it has my attention. thanks for noticing it. its not in the SAL and it doesnt appear to be racing west.

[Shuriken]

This l'll bugger has everything I like to see in a potential fast-developer: obviously ideal conditions for an LLC to form (since it has one), ITCZ-origin storm (i.e., won't suffer from the problems usually attendant to sprawling, dry-air-ingesting CV waves such as Invest 94), it's parked in the steam-bath northeast of South America well under 15N, and moving lazily west under a light easterly shear regime initially poising convection on the west edge of the LLC (keeping outflow boundaries away from it).

[Shuriken]

One guess why it's popped up where it has:

[rockyman]

From 8am TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N44W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N45W MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION AROUND THE WAVE AXIS IS LIMITED DUE TO
A LARGE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD MONSOONAL GYRE
DISCUSSED BELOW.

[tolakram]

Good time as any to state that I dislike these annoying forum separations....IMO any storm which is currently existent is "active". (It's a real pain when a storm Invests, then delists but then re-intensifies one or more times...back/forth/back/forth, etc.)

Title-labeling should make it clear enough what's more, or less, important -- with important ones being stickied.

(Is there a "pouch" on this system yet??)

Tough thing to agree on Shuriken. If the pro's at the NHC thought this was something important they would make an Invest. We've done this various ways in the past and for clarity, and readability, the way the forum works now is generally the best. It keeps clutter down to only those storms or invests deemed to be a real threat by the NHC.

So while some may think this is a storm, the pros think it's just a gyre and not a threat to develop. We all appreciate the discussion, at least I do, it's certainly worthy of it, and sometimes the amateurs do recognize something before the pros, but Talkin Tropics is the place for these things.

Now, as far as this is concerned, we have seen in the past where invests suddenly jump to a different circulation. We'll see.

[rainstorm]

i personally think this is the one area to watch in the tropics. as 94L dissipates i think this disturbance has a chance to become a depresssion.

[Hurricaneman]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I personally think this has a better chance at significant development than 94L for a couple of reasons, its over higher heat content than 94L, is in a much more moist enviornment than 94L, and has more convection than 94L, I think this low could be a quick developer once it detaches from the ITCZ if it does

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW Saved Loop:

[tolakram]

^^ I do not see a clear circulation with this area of convection, even though the visible image looks good.

[Hurricaneman]

Another thing I noticed looking at the MIMIC imagary is that does anyone remember when 94L came off of Africa and had a northern low and a southern low, maybe this is the southern part that happened to seperate from 94L

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Shuriken]

....we have seen in the past where invests suddenly jump to a different circulation. We'll see.

Yeah...if Invest 94 doesn't go TD before sunset today, I wouldn't be surprised if the current 60% zone graphic doesn't go from the present circle to a bigger oval which encompasses both circulations. Then they sort it out tomorrow first visibles.

[wxman57]

That's another moderate tropical wave which we've tracked since it moved off the west coast of Africa on the 13th (last Monday). It's been out ahead of Invest 94L the whole time. Both have weak LLCs. This one has a circulation near 11.4N/47W. Both it and 94L are struggling in the hostile conditions that prevail east of the Caribbean this season (as had been predicted in the pre-season outlooks).

[Shuriken]

( Both it and 94L are struggling in the hostile conditions that prevail east of the Caribbean this season (as had been predicted in the pre-season outlooks).

You need little other than climatology to make such a prediction for dates before August 15 in any year; as king cap just won't let anything exhaust at 200mb shy of south-of-Cuba.

E.g., 2007, in which two CV cat-5s barreled through the Caribbean in a three week span, but every other storm that year was a weak TS or cat-1 with no other hurricane action in the Carib.

[rainstorm]

That's another moderate tropical wave which we've tracked since it moved off the west coast of Africa on the 13th (last Monday). It's been out ahead of Invest 94L the whole time. Both have weak LLCs. This one has a circulation near 11.4N/47W. Both it and 94L are struggling in the hostile conditions that prevail east of the Caribbean this season (as had been predicted in the pre-season outlooks).

but so many have said that conditions have greatly improved. are they wrong? it seems they are.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

None of the credible models develops this system and the NHC does not mention it. While there does appear to be a small surface low near 12N 49W that is listed by TAFB, on satellite imagery it appears to be embedded in the larger anticyclonic flow over 94L to the east. Combined with a building ridge to the northeast and an upper low dipping south in front (check the UL wind overlay on the satellite), this should serve to maintain and increase net shear over the system during the next few days. Since the system is much smaller and thereby more vulnerable to the surrounding dry air and shear to the north, I would not expect this system to develop, particularly not in the TC graveyard known to climatology as the Windward Islands / SE Caribbean.