ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Riptide]

Anybody have a link to that new GFS run.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[perk]

Anybody have a link to that new GFS run.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

Riptide thanks for the link.

[cycloneye]

Gets very strong in the GOM.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS say Houston, we've got a problem, but its at 288 and will probably change

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Portastorm]

Let me go on the record to say that I don't care for that model run!

[perk]

The 12zGFS say Houston, we've got a problem, but its at 288 and will probably change

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricaneman i'm gonna hold you to that.

[Dean4Storms]

This run makes sense, at least as far as getting to the Gulf goes. If it struggles deepening the lower level flow is certainly that way under the Ridge.

[perk]

Let me go on the record to say that I don't care for that model run!

Let me go on record and second that i don't care for that run either.

[Stormlover2012]

That's a very realistic run and the most realistic one yet, it's going to stay weak until it gets to the gulf

[Hurricaneman]

The 500mb pattern in the 12ZGFS would be that if its stronger in the Carribean than modeled than this will be a threat to Florida but if it stays weak it will basically do what the GFS shows and threaten Texas

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Alexis]

First it was a recurve, then it was the big islands w/ a recurve, then Florida, then a weak system doing nothing, and now a cat 2 in the Gulf....all in just 2 days of runs.

[Gustywind]

First it was a recurve, then it was the big islands w/ a recurve, then Florida, then a weak system doing nothing, and now a cat 2 in the Gulf....all in just 2 days of runs.

Be Welcomed in the deep tropics

[rainstorm]

it does make sense if it can survive as an entity. the western gom is the only favorable place in the entire basin, other than north of 30n and east of 60w.

[CourierPR]

it does make sense if it can survive as an entity. the western gom is the only favorable place in the entire basin, other than north of 30n and east of 60w.

Based on what? Water temps are high in the Gulf but Joe Bastardi has been forecasting a threat to the Southeast for days. I disagree that the western GOM is the only favorable place for development.

[shredderola]

First it was a recurve, then it was the big islands w/ a recurve, then Florida, then a weak system doing nothing, and now a cat 2 in the Gulf....all in just 2 days of runs.

Major model windshield wiping going on and no surprise! There will be more to come and especially pre TC genesis.

[SeminoleWind]

264 Hrs = 11 days out in western gulf, um yeah i'm sure things will change lol

[ROCK]

I saw no one posted the NOGAPS....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


still a screwy run as its developing something in front of 94L and kicks it up and out....developes it too fast then recurves. Been showing this for days now....

[ROCK]

EURO at 216 hr brings this into the GOM thru the channel...

[SFLcane]

Just updated on Jonathan Vighs site 12z GFS esembles still suggesting possible threat to the southeast in time.

[wjs3]

What's interesting to me is that the Operational GFS (AVNO) is left of (south of, further west track than, whatever you want to call it) of all the ensemble members. Really makes you take that forecast track, late in the period, with a grain of salt.