ATL: INVEST 95L

[Hurricaneman]

The surface low of Helene went into Mexico and dissapated, but it looks like the MLC stayed over the Gulf, if this redevelops will it be called Helene or something else since the original low dissipated

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[Portastorm]

NHC in its morning discussion didn't reference anything specific other than the call it "broad cyclonic turning" related to Helene. Could certainly be a MLC or something. Definitely is lighting up the WGOM this morning.

[Dean4Storms]

Keep an eye on this radar for later today.......

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[tailgater]

Radar near Tampico

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/altamira/altamira.php

[Aric Dunn]

seriously looks like the cmc solution was a good run the other day.

[SouthernMet]

Off shore Convection looking good atm.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg Something that heeds watching should it develop. Was this what the CMC/GFS were showing ?? Time will tell.

[rockyman]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[rockyman]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208191734
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012
AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HurricaneBrain]

Hmm, guess it isn't associated with Helene.

[cycloneye]

If this develops into a TD it would be TD9 or TD10 depending on what 94L does. And it would get a new name.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting, I figured it would be Helene reborn again...

[rockyman]

interesting that the "center" of the lemon is well offshore


From the 2PM TWO:
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Weatherfreak000]

Sick. Truly just sick. CMC might deserve a bit of recognition here for sniffing this out.....the question is how many storms CAN we pop out this August? Two more potentially down the pipe after 94L....assuming those all develop we will be on par with 2005...the most active season in recorded history. Wow.


If this is an El Nino season you couldn't convince me.

[HurricaneBelle]

So if this system forms, the NHC will have been to Helene and back.

[Portastorm]

Glad to see this is now an invest. Well deserved.

I think kudos are in order for the GFS. For days now it has captured this pattern in the WGOM quite well. I used to be a naysayer about the GFS but, in my estimation, it has kicked butt this tropical season.

[HurricaneBrain]

Invest 95 looks to moving NNW very slowly.

[Hurricaneman]

I posted a poll on which one would get named first in the Forecasting Contest Forum

I picked this one 95L

[KWT]

Looking pretty good at the moment. If I was a betting man, Id say it'll make it. W.gulf and BoC have been favourable this year.

[cycloneye]

I posted a poll on which one would get named first in the Forecasting Contest Forum

I picked this one 95L

Here is the link for all to go and vote.

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113401&hilit=&p=2252379#p2252379

[lrak]

Wow, just maybe some rain with this one