ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Overnight, I'm expecting deep convection to fire over the LLC and mix out some of the dry air...If this occurs we could easily have a hurricane threat once it reaches the NE Carribean....

[ROCK]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Overnight, I'm expecting deep convection to fire over the LLC and mix out some of the dry air...If this occurs we could easily have a hurricane threat once it reaches the NE Carribean....

Vortex it can mix it out all it wants but it will just bring more in...we have seen this with every storm so far this year. Ingesting SAL slows development. I am in the latter camp today....think it will get named maybe late Monday or Tuesday. I dont think it will be a hurricane by the islands...needs to moisten up the area in front of it or consolidate further south....


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

205 PM TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N36W TO 20N34W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 14N36W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 36W-39W TO THE NW OF
THE LOW AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 36W-41W TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Overnight, I'm expecting deep convection to fire over the LLC and mix out some of the dry air...If this occurs we could easily have a hurricane threat once it reaches the NE Carribean....

Vortex it can mix it out all it wants but it will just bring more in...we have seen this with every storm so far this year. Ingesting SAL slows development. I am in the latter camp today....think it will get named maybe late Monday or Tuesday. I dont think it will be a hurricane by the islands...needs to moisten up the area in front of it or consolidate further south....


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think the conditions 2-3 weeks ago are relevent to this week. Afterall, we are much closer to peak.

[otowntiger]

That historical track image tells me two things: It's chances of affecting the east coast are slim and two the chances of getting into the Gulf even slimmer historically speaking that is.

[Vortex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Overnight, I'm expecting deep convection to fire over the LLC and mix out some of the dry air...If this occurs we could easily have a hurricane threat once it reaches the NE Carribean....

Vortex it can mix it out all it wants but it will just bring more in...we have seen this with every storm so far this year. Ingesting SAL slows development. I am in the latter camp today....think it will get named maybe late Monday or Tuesday. I dont think it will be a hurricane by the islands...needs to moisten up the area in front of it or consolidate further south....

Rock, I don't dispute your arguement regarding SAL..At the same time I've watched over the past 30+ years these systems also able to generate a marginal CDO thus creating enough instability and mixing out the more stable air at the core versus the surrounding environment...Someone needs to wake up ivanhater...I see all the usual suspects have mostly arrived...It's almost showtime.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Remember that's for systems that already exist. This system may take another 5-10 degrees of longitude to form and that map will look different.

[hurricaneCW]

That historical track image tells me two things: It's chances of affecting the east coast are slim and two the chances of getting into the Gulf even slimmer historically speaking that is.

This is why I dislike using climatology when it comes to storm tracks especially for eastern Atlantic systems. Most storms that form in the central and eastern Atlantic are fish storms, I believe 80% of all Cape Verde storms recurve harmlessly out to sea, which is why climatology tells me nothing.

And models do suggest that 94L may pose a real threat to land masses.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion of 94L by the San Juan NWS.

MEDIUM RANGE...WE ARE MONITORING A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND
SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. ALL
INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY.

[Hurricaneman]

I looked for some past storm tracks that may or may not pertain to this system

Allen 1980
David 1979
Donna 1960
Charley 2004
Ivan 2004
Gustav 2008
1900 Galveston Hurricane
Ernesto 2006
Debby 2000
Gilbert 1988
Hugo 1989

and there may be others, I don't expect this to be as strong as some of those storms, but I do expect something of interest in the carribean later this week, after it enters the carribean is where the GFS ensembles seem to diverge from anywhere from going into the gulf to running up the east coast.

Currently it looks to be getting its act together and I do expect a TD tomorrow. My forecast for strength is

Current 30mph
12hrs 35mph
24hrs 35mph
36hrs 40mph
48hrs 50mph
60hrs 55mph
72hrs 60mph
84hrs 60mph
96hrs 70mph
120hrs 90mph
144hrs 90mph

The track is going to go NNW through eastern Cuba and brush by Miami and head NNE making landfall in Wilmington NC due to this possibly being stronger than the models indicate

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

Remember that's for systems that already exist. This system may take another 5-10 degrees of longitude to form and that map will look different.

All classified systems passing at 94L's current latitude but 12 degrees farther west than the current position.


All classified systems passing near 94L's position.

[rainstorm]

here is JB's take

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

MJO handling system in atlantic not jiving with its idea on phase 2/3 mjo. expect further north, stronger trend to develop


i gather he still thinks its an east coast threat and will trend stronger in the models.

[Stormlover2012]

Joe b is a east coast guy

[wxman57]

Data indicate the tropical Atlantic is still quite a bit less unstable than normal:

[hurricanes1234]

I guess nobody saw my discussion - that's why they're absolutely no comments about it. Why does everyone always do that to me? Everyone else makes posts and they almost immediately get feedback, yet when I make posts, I wait days for an answer, and usually, I get none. Is it that my posts are stupid, or worthless....why am I rarely ever able to get feedback? And if I ever get feedback, it is always someone criticizing me.

[Portastorm]

I guess nobody saw my discussion - that's why they're absolutely no comments about it. Why does everyone always do that to me? Everyone else makes posts and they almost immediately get feedback, yet when I make posts, I wait days for an answer, and usually, I get none. Is it that my posts are stupid, or worthless....why am I rarely ever able to get feedback? And if I ever get feedback, it is always someone criticizing me.

Relax ... there are plenty of members who post and receive no responses. It is nothing personal. So there ... consider that feedback where NOBODY is criticizing you. As long as you stay active and provide posts which add something to the discussion, it'll all come in time.

In terms of you discussion a few hours back ... it appears you have a solid grip of understanding on this system's basics. From what I could tell, you didn't have any significant errors. Perhaps one of our pro mets or educated amateurs will offer additional feedback.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I guess nobody saw my discussion - that's why they're absolutely no comments about it. Why does everyone always do that to me? Everyone else makes posts and they almost immediately get feedback, yet when I make posts, I wait days for an answer, and usually, I get none. Is it that my posts are stupid, or worthless....why am I rarely ever able to get feedback? And if I ever get feedback, it is always someone criticizing me.

Should of just asked for thoughts, comments, or opinions then. I am sure you would have received some.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The pattern does not favor a Gulf Coast track. All of the good analogue storms for this invest hit the East Coast or went out to sea between the USA and Bermuda.

[Blown Away]

NCEP has 94L over central Cuba in 7 days.

[FutureEM]

The pattern does not favor a Gulf Coast track. All of the good analogue storms for this invest hit the East Coast or went out to sea between the USA and Bermuda.

That doesn't mean 94L will follow an analogue, just saying.