The closest Africa has gotten to getting hit by an Atlantic hurricane since anyone has been paying attention to that kind of thing is Morocco got the remnants of Delta in the wacky waning days of 2005 after that storm went extratropical just west of the Canary Islands:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL292005_Delta.pdf
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON NOV 28 2005
...DELTA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...
...STILL A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CANARY AND MADEIRA
ISLANDS... AND NORTHWESTERN AFRICA...
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
CANARY ISLAND WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT... WITH GALE
TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND
NORTHERN MAURITANIA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical
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JonathanBelles
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
Looking worse, but still bursting.
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M a r k
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories
8 AM AST
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 30.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM WSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GORDON WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
AZORES EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
EASTERN AZORES LATE TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES TODAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
800 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 30.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM WSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GORDON WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
AZORES EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT GORDON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
EASTERN AZORES LATE TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES TODAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
...GORDON EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES AS A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 29.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES
ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN AZORES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
EASTERN AZORES LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES TODAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
THE EYE OF GORDON IS INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHRINK AND BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN 1103 UTC SSMIS PASS FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE
SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE TILTING EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...
LIKELY DUE TO THE ALMOST 30 KT OF SHEAR ANALYZED OVER GORDON BY
UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE GORDON WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 30 KT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
40N/40W OVERTAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...BUT KEEPS GORDON AS A
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES TOMORROW. THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF
GORDON DECOPULING BY 48 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AROUND THAT TIME. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY DAY 4.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/18. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CIRCULATION DECOUPLES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AT 48 AND 72 HOURS THE
NHC TRACK IS A BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 35.5N 29.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 36.5N 26.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 38.0N 23.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.2N 20.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 39.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 39.5N 17.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
...GORDON EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES AS A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 29.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF GORDON WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES
ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER
THE EASTERN AZORES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
EASTERN AZORES LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES TODAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
THE EYE OF GORDON IS INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHRINK AND BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN 1103 UTC SSMIS PASS FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE
SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE TILTING EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...
LIKELY DUE TO THE ALMOST 30 KT OF SHEAR ANALYZED OVER GORDON BY
UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE GORDON WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 30 KT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
40N/40W OVERTAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...BUT KEEPS GORDON AS A
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES TOMORROW. THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF
GORDON DECOPULING BY 48 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AROUND THAT TIME. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY DAY 4.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/18. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CIRCULATION DECOUPLES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AT 48 AND 72 HOURS THE
NHC TRACK IS A BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 35.5N 29.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 36.5N 26.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 38.0N 23.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.2N 20.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 39.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 39.5N 17.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2905
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
Gordon is beginning to affect the Azores. Hope they're safe.
______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Riptide
- Category 2
- Posts: 753
- Age: 33
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
It appears that the Azores are getting a taste of Irene, "get off the beach!".
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
Latest saved visible loop
0 likes
M a r k
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mrbagyo
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
i hope the wpac will have an hyperactive forum.. just like your basin...
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hurricanes1234
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- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
Why did they drop the floater for Gordon?
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AJC3
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
hurricanes1234 wrote:Why did they drop the floater for Gordon?
If they did, it's becuase it's already at the eastern edge of the GOES-E full disk range and it's about to run out of the area of coverage.
You'll have to go to EUMETSAT or some other page that shows METEOSAT imagery to see it.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GORDON - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
...GORDON EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN AZORES MONDAY AS A
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 27.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN AZORES ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
GORDON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS DEEP CONVECTION IS ERODING
SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT ON RECENT
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 75 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR...AND THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. MODEL FIELDS AND FSU
PHASE SPACE DIGRAMS SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL BE POST-TROPICAL BY 36
HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN SHEAR APART AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/18. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO OF GORDON INTERACTING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE A BIT MORE OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 36
HOURS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES...A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 36.1N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 37.3N 24.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 38.8N 21.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 39.2N 19.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/1800Z 39.2N 18.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1800Z 39.0N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
...GORDON EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN AZORES MONDAY AS A
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 27.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN AZORES ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
GORDON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS DEEP CONVECTION IS ERODING
SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT ON RECENT
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 75 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR...AND THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. MODEL FIELDS AND FSU
PHASE SPACE DIGRAMS SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL BE POST-TROPICAL BY 36
HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN SHEAR APART AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/18. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO OF GORDON INTERACTING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE A BIT MORE OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 36
HOURS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES...A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 36.1N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 37.3N 24.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 38.8N 21.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 39.2N 19.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/1800Z 39.2N 18.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1800Z 39.0N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143862
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
...GORDON EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN AZORES MONDAY AS A
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 27.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 27.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
- Posts: 3926
- Age: 36
- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
tolakram wrote:Latest saved visible loop
I just noticed that these loops outline every island except for the southeasternmost one, Santa Maria - the one that should take the hardest hit from Gordon.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
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christchurchguy
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:31 am
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littlevince
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:45 am
- Location: Portugal
Re:
christchurchguy wrote:whats the url for that goes floater?
They Removed Gordon from the site one hour ago ....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
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frederic79
- Category 1
- Posts: 271
- Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 8:48 pm
- Location: Grand Bay, AL
Re: ATL: GORDON - Hurricane
This may already be posted but I noticed Hurricane Gorden (Cat 1) impacted the Azores 6 years ago (2006) causing minimal damage in September of that year. Kind of shows how far ahead we are on named storms also. :0)
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