ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

With a movement of 20-25 mph W looks like another one hard pressed to gets it's act together showing the strength of the High for sure.It's not out of the question but these guys have got to slow down some to stack.

[cycloneye]

At this point, how safe is it to say that this will stay south of the USVI/PR area? Seems it is staying on a westerly course. Does anyone see anything that could possibly bring this system more north?

I agree with what my collegue said. This is this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS about 94L and the possible effects in our area.

MEDIUM RANGE...WE ARE MONITORING A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND
SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. ALL
INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY.

[BatzVI]

Preps are in place, and I do understand how far out it is....was just hoping there was a little more confidence in where it may go...this is always the worse part...watch and wait....

[tolakram]

Latest IR loop

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is 94L the storm that hits Texas on the GFS?

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

[ouragans]

Latest IR loop

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/8194/zzmovie.gif

on this loop, it looks like a 265-260 deg. it's in very bad shape tonight, so no TD9 tonight

[Caribwxgirl]

On Nhc for the marine forecast they indicate two tropical waves 94L and the bit just in front of it. How come they don't have it in the TWO as well? Meaning shouldn't we be getting a heads up on that as well?

[Hurricaneman]

I think this south of due west motion could only be beneficial to this system, it keeps it away from any possible ULLs and it gets into a much more moisture rich enviornment with less SAL

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[colbroe]

The south of due west motion could only be beneficial to this system,however it would not be benificial for the islands ahead of it .

[GCANE]

200mb vorticity over the LLC has dropped significantly in the last 3hrs.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Looks like a good chance 94L will now begin to spin up.

[Hurricaneman]

The south of due west motion could only be beneficial to this system,however it would not be benificial for the islands ahead of it .

Thats the real drawback of this is it could strengthen more and be more than a minor problem, I just hope the people in the islands are preparing for this

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Vortex]

Organization continues this evening. Convection firing in the western n southern quads. Once we have that fire over the LLC later tonight we should move from TD to TS status fairly quickly...The large envelope also continues to expand--A classic Cape Verde storm in the making....






Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Indeed a very large circulation...

[ROCK]

reminds me of a WPAC system.....huge sucker!

[cycloneye]

It dropped from 14.6N this afternoon to now 14.3N.

19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

[SeminoleWind]

Definitely has "the look" to it, i didnt realize how big this thing really was.

[ROCK]

It dropped from 14.6N this afternoon to now 14.3N.

19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

not much but if it keeps dropping that could have significant effects on the final track....though I think some models did pick up on this...

[CrazyC83]

The huge size could keep its intensity in check, but could also mean pressure mismatches (think Irene when it was a Cat 1 with a pressure of like 947mb).

Even if it doesn't become very strong, rainfall could be ENORMOUS.

[Blown Away]

Blown Away Prediction:
- TD by 5am tomorrow.
- TS before 55 west.
- Through NE Caribbean as Cat 1.
- Skirt coast of or just north of Hispaniola.
- Into Se Bahamas as Cat 2.
- 50/50 into SFL or Carolinas.
- Not a GOM storm this time.

JMHO