ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Blown Away]

Dynamic models shifting N.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Dynamic models shifting N.

And the 6Z HWRF is on board showing a deepening system coming below Haiti.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[GCANE]

GFS has been very consistent in developing an ULL when 94L gets either in the West Carib or Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Looks like the ULL will be timed and positioned to create a nearly ideal poleward outflow channel.

May see 94L, or Isaac by then, ramp up quickly when it gets in this position.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

GFS has been very consistent in developing an ULL when 94L gets either in the West Carib or Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Looks like the ULL will be timed and positioned to create a nearly ideal poleward outflow channel.

May see 94L, or Isaac by then, ramp up quickly when it gets in this position.

The GFS also shows weak steering currents when the system is in the Fla. Straits, not a good situation if it should occur.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The 6Z GFDL keeps 94L weak but is line with what is a pretty good model consensus of a track near Haiti.

[AtlanticWind]

From NWS Miami

LONG TERM...[WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND]
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BECOMES INTRODUCED AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIANCE WITHIN THE LATEST
MODEL PACKAGE. THIS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LOW AS A RESULT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN INTEREST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
INTEREST WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE UPCOMING 24-48 HRS. WHILE SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS TAKE THIS AREA OF INTEREST DUE WEST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
NORTH AND NORTHWEST TURN ACROSS CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MAINLY MORE OF A SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE
SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hwrf

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

6Z BamM takes 94L into the Southern Bahamas

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012082006-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Hwrf

Morning Bob...Interesting that the HWRF ends up with a very small hurricane at the end of the run.

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012082006-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Hwrf

A much stronger run there.

[blp]

Hwrf[/quote]
Morning Bob...Interesting that the HWRF ends up with a very small hurricane at the end of the run.[/quote]

Yes the HWRF is stronger than before runs. It seems to confirm that conditions will be more favorable towards the western carribean.

[Stormlover2012]

the models will keep shifting from north to west and etc, always remember untill something develops the models won't get a good grasp on it, I still feel anywhere from florida to mexico.

This isn't a official forecast, just my opinion

[Blown Away]

I'm still sticking w/ 94L skirts north coast or goes above Hispaniola.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I'm still sticking w/ 94L skirts north coast or goes above Hispaniola.

I agree. I see the current BamM, above the islands into the SE Bahamas, as a good possibilty.

[cycloneye]

12z Models

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC MON AUG 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120820 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120820  1200   120821  0000   120821  1200   120822  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.6N  44.8W   16.4N  48.3W   17.0N  52.3W   17.5N  56.4W
BAMD    15.6N  44.8W   16.0N  48.0W   16.3N  51.2W   16.3N  54.4W
BAMM    15.6N  44.8W   16.3N  48.2W   16.8N  51.8W   17.0N  55.4W
LBAR    15.6N  44.8W   16.1N  48.3W   16.7N  52.0W   17.2N  55.7W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120822  1200   120823  1200   120824  1200   120825  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.9N  60.6W   18.8N  69.0W   19.3N  76.1W   19.1N  80.3W
BAMD    16.4N  57.7W   17.0N  63.4W   18.9N  67.7W   21.3N  70.0W
BAMM    17.3N  59.2W   18.6N  66.6W   20.9N  73.1W   22.8N  77.5W
LBAR    17.4N  59.4W   17.5N  67.2W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        63KTS          85KTS          96KTS         100KTS
DSHP        63KTS          85KTS          96KTS         100KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.6N LONCUR =  44.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  15.1N LONM12 =  40.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  14.5N LONM24 =  36.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[SFLcane]

Bams have shifted north a bit into the southern Bahamas. North of hispaniola might be a good call.

[cycloneye]

Bams have shifted north a bit into the southern Bahamas. North of hispaniola might be a good call.

Yes,is already almost at 16N right now and that is a good guide.

[boca]

It looks like the spaghetti modes have shifted east agin thru the Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

Bams have shifted north a bit into the southern Bahamas. North of hispaniola might be a good call.

we know that systems that can stay away from the hispanola shredder can become very strong, models seems to like this recurve idea before 83W

[boca]

the recurve is in the Bahamas