ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

Waiting on the models...

[cycloneye]

First plots for 95L

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952012) 20120819 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120819  1200   120820  0000   120820  1200   120821  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.7N  98.1W   22.9N  98.5W   23.7N  99.2W   23.7N 100.1W
BAMD    21.7N  98.1W   22.1N  98.3W   22.2N  98.5W   22.0N  98.9W
BAMM    21.7N  98.1W   22.7N  98.3W   23.2N  98.5W   23.1N  98.9W
LBAR    21.7N  98.1W   22.2N  98.4W   23.2N  98.6W   24.4N  98.5W
SHIP        20KTS          22KTS          26KTS          31KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          26KTS          26KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120821  1200   120822  1200   120823  1200   120824  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.8N 101.4W   23.6N 104.0W   23.3N 106.4W   22.8N 108.4W
BAMD    21.6N  99.6W   21.1N 101.9W   20.8N 104.9W   20.5N 108.1W
BAMM    22.8N  99.8W   22.1N 102.1W   21.4N 104.8W   20.5N 107.9W
LBAR    25.6N  97.9W   28.7N  95.3W   32.4N  91.3W   35.6N  86.2W
SHIP        37KTS          45KTS          54KTS          60KTS
DSHP        27KTS          27KTS          27KTS          35KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.7N LONCUR =  98.1W DIRCUR =  75DEG SPDCUR =   1KT
LATM12 =  21.5N LONM12 =  97.9W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 =   1KT
LATM24 =  21.3N LONM24 =  97.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[HurricaneBrain]

From looking at the numbers, it looks like the models are taking it through Mexico in a NW direction. Hmmm...

[FutureEM]

From looking at the numbers, it looks like the models are taking it through Mexico in a NW direction. Hmmm...

To be fair these aren't very reliable models

[HurricaneBrain]

From looking at the numbers, it looks like the models are taking it through Mexico in a NW direction. Hmmm...

To be fair these aren't very reliable models

Very true! The first model runs are usually garbage anyways.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Front is supposed to move off the Louisiana coast tomorrow into tomorrow night then slowly wash out. Would surely think 95L would get slowly pulled north to some extent over the next couple of days. If it manages to get its act together somebody might be in for a little surprise.

And I will continue the how good the gfs is doing this year discussion over here. I have been one of the biggest gfs bashers over the years. But must admit it is suprisingly kicking butt this year. While all the attention was on 94 I was very surprised no one was really making much of the fact it was showing the remnants of Helen or whatever it was redeveloping into a moderate system and hitting the north gulf a few days ago. The CMC joined in and now look what could be going on. Will have to see if others join in now or not. A lot more interesting than 94 at the moment.

[HurricaneBrain]

[Portastorm]

Seems to me like none of those models initialized the system correctly. I would guess 23/96.5-97 for a center.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Must agree. Looking at zoomed in visibles looks like something is trying to get going just off the coast right around where portastorm said.

[Dean4Storms]

Hopefully they run HWRF and GFDL today on this, looks like it is organizing quickly right now!

[wxwatcher1999]

When will more models run on this?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC MON AUG 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952012) 20120820 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120820  1200   120821  0000   120821  1200   120822  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.2N  97.2W   23.6N  97.4W   23.7N  98.2W   24.1N  99.1W
BAMD    23.2N  97.2W   22.9N  97.5W   22.4N  98.1W   22.1N  99.3W
BAMM    23.2N  97.2W   23.4N  97.4W   23.3N  98.1W   23.2N  99.0W
LBAR    23.2N  97.2W   23.4N  97.1W   24.0N  97.3W   24.7N  97.4W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          31KTS          36KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          25KTS          26KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120822  1200   120823  1200   120824  1200   120825  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.5N 100.3W   25.4N 102.6W   26.6N 104.0W   27.5N 104.3W
BAMD    21.7N 100.5W   21.1N 104.1W   21.2N 108.1W   21.8N 111.2W
BAMM    23.2N 100.2W   23.2N 103.0W   23.4N 105.8W   23.5N 107.7W
LBAR    25.9N  97.2W   29.5N  95.3W   34.0N  93.0W   36.2N  88.7W
SHIP        40KTS          45KTS          55KTS          65KTS
DSHP        27KTS          27KTS          27KTS          35KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  23.2N LONCUR =  97.2W DIRCUR =  35DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  22.4N LONM12 =  98.1W DIRM12 =  15DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  21.7N LONM24 =  98.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Houstonia]

Confused! Thought 95L was over land already?!?

[brunota2003]

Anything new?