ATL: JOYCE - Models
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Dave wrote:Model thread for Invest 96L.
Thanks Dave

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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0538 UTC MON AUG 20 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120820 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120820 0000 120820 1200 120821 0000 120821 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 21.4W 12.1N 23.4W 12.5N 25.8W 13.0N 28.5W
BAMD 12.1N 21.4W 12.2N 23.4W 12.9N 25.5W 13.9N 27.8W
BAMM 12.1N 21.4W 12.3N 23.4W 12.8N 25.6W 13.6N 28.1W
LBAR 12.1N 21.4W 11.8N 24.2W 12.4N 27.3W 13.0N 30.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120822 0000 120823 0000 120824 0000 120825 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 31.4W 14.2N 37.7W 15.3N 44.4W 17.0N 51.3W
BAMD 15.0N 30.1W 17.2N 34.3W 18.9N 38.0W 20.1N 41.0W
BAMM 14.5N 30.7W 16.2N 36.0W 17.8N 41.0W 19.4N 45.6W
LBAR 14.0N 33.4W 16.5N 38.7W 19.0N 42.6W 11.4N 46.8W
SHIP 47KTS 49KTS 49KTS 46KTS
DSHP 47KTS 49KTS 49KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 21.4W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 18.5W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 15.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 200121
These were the first tracks of the first run at 00z.

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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC MON AUG 20 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120820 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120820 1200 120821 0000 120821 1200 120822 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 25.5W 12.7N 28.0W 12.7N 30.7W 12.8N 33.7W
BAMD 12.7N 25.5W 13.0N 27.4W 13.8N 29.5W 14.7N 31.7W
BAMM 12.7N 25.5W 13.0N 27.7W 13.5N 30.1W 14.1N 32.6W
LBAR 12.7N 25.5W 13.0N 28.5W 13.5N 31.8W 14.1N 35.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120822 1200 120823 1200 120824 1200 120825 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 36.8W 13.1N 42.8W 13.6N 48.3W 14.7N 53.6W
BAMD 15.8N 33.9W 18.1N 37.7W 20.4N 41.2W 23.0N 44.4W
BAMM 14.7N 35.2W 16.2N 40.0W 17.7N 44.9W 20.1N 50.2W
LBAR 14.9N 38.2W 17.7N 43.3W 21.2N 46.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 43KTS 38KTS 32KTS
DSHP 41KTS 43KTS 38KTS 32KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 25.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 21.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 18.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- Dave
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Gustywind wrote:Dave wrote:Model thread for Invest 96L.
Thanks Dave. Models have not begin to work?
Sorry Gusty, I just got the thread started and had to run, didn't have time to do anything else....Thanks Cycloneye for picking it up.

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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Dave wrote:Gustywind wrote:Dave wrote:Model thread for Invest 96L.
Thanks Dave. Models have not begin to work?
Sorry Gusty, I just got the thread started and had to run, didn't have time to do anything else....Thanks Cycloneye for picking it up.




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- Riptide
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
The GFS and Euro don't like 96L for some reason, but we must believe them because they have been doing well with intensity; only unknown variable is the long-range factor and overall decrease of accuracy. Mabye when 94L gets out of the way...
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SHIPS likes it a bit more now...but not nearly as much as 94, which I find odd due to the SAL removal.
WHXX01 KWBC 210057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120821 0000 120821 1200 120822 0000 120822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 27.1W 10.6N 28.7W 11.3N 30.5W 12.1N 32.7W
BAMD 10.3N 27.1W 10.8N 28.8W 11.8N 30.7W 13.0N 32.6W
BAMM 10.3N 27.1W 10.8N 28.9W 11.7N 30.7W 12.7N 32.9W
LBAR 10.3N 27.1W 10.7N 29.6W 11.6N 32.4W 12.8N 35.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120823 0000 120824 0000 120825 0000 120826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 34.8W 14.4N 39.6W 15.5N 45.2W 17.1N 51.5W
BAMD 14.3N 34.6W 16.5N 38.5W 18.1N 42.9W 20.2N 47.3W
BAMM 13.8N 35.1W 15.6N 39.7W 16.9N 45.2W 19.1N 50.8W
LBAR 14.2N 38.1W 16.8N 43.2W 19.0N 46.7W 19.6N 49.5W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 50KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 27.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 24.9W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 22.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 210057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120821 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120821 0000 120821 1200 120822 0000 120822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 27.1W 10.6N 28.7W 11.3N 30.5W 12.1N 32.7W
BAMD 10.3N 27.1W 10.8N 28.8W 11.8N 30.7W 13.0N 32.6W
BAMM 10.3N 27.1W 10.8N 28.9W 11.7N 30.7W 12.7N 32.9W
LBAR 10.3N 27.1W 10.7N 29.6W 11.6N 32.4W 12.8N 35.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120823 0000 120824 0000 120825 0000 120826 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 34.8W 14.4N 39.6W 15.5N 45.2W 17.1N 51.5W
BAMD 14.3N 34.6W 16.5N 38.5W 18.1N 42.9W 20.2N 47.3W
BAMM 13.8N 35.1W 15.6N 39.7W 16.9N 45.2W 19.1N 50.8W
LBAR 14.2N 38.1W 16.8N 43.2W 19.0N 46.7W 19.6N 49.5W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 50KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 27.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 24.9W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 22.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- brunota2003
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.
I think they believe an intense 94L will shear this one apart, which seems reasonable. But if 94L fails to get going, this one I think could become a very intense storm.
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- brunota2003
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.
I think they believe an intense 94L will shear this one apart, which seems reasonable. But if 94L fails to get going, this one I think could become a very intense storm.
If it is at the right distance, an intense 94L could even help 96L, couldn't it?
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Re: Re:
brunota2003 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.
I think they believe an intense 94L will shear this one apart, which seems reasonable. But if 94L fails to get going, this one I think could become a very intense storm.
If it is at the right distance, an intense 94L could even help 96L, couldn't it?
This can happen with the right spacing, What you would need is either a fairly large 200MB anticyclone to bridge both systems, or sufficient space* for a fairly compact 200 MB low to form in between the two systems and become a mass sink for the outflow from the lead system, while actually venting helping to vent the trailing system on its divergent east side.
*I want to say it has to be about 15-20 degrees longitude.
See Supertyphoons Joan and Ivan of 1997 for an extreme example of simultaneous, intense TC's cohabitating about 20 degrees apart,
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.
I think they believe an intense 94L will shear this one apart, which seems reasonable. But if 94L fails to get going, this one I think could become a very intense storm.
This doesn't make sense, the two systems aren't near each other so the chances of one of them shearing apart because of the other is unbelievably low, in fact the chances are becoming lower every minute. This idea that these two Invests are highly dependent on each other for a future outcome is not one that is reasonable IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
This storm is definitely one to keep an eye on. It will cause a lot of damage if it keeps on the predicted path and strenghtens accordingly
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 211247
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120821 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120821 1200 120822 0000 120822 1200 120823 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 30.5W 10.8N 32.0W 11.6N 33.8W 12.7N 35.7W
BAMD 10.3N 30.5W 10.7N 32.4W 11.6N 34.3W 12.9N 36.1W
BAMM 10.3N 30.5W 10.8N 32.4W 11.6N 34.3W 12.8N 36.3W
LBAR 10.3N 30.5W 10.8N 33.2W 11.7N 36.1W 12.9N 39.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120823 1200 120824 1200 120825 1200 120826 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 37.9W 15.6N 43.0W 17.7N 49.4W 20.4N 56.3W
BAMD 14.3N 38.0W 17.0N 42.6W 20.1N 47.5W 24.8N 52.2W
BAMM 14.1N 38.4W 16.3N 43.2W 18.9N 49.2W 22.3N 55.2W
LBAR 14.2N 42.0W 16.6N 46.9W 19.5N 50.8W 18.4N 54.9W
SHIP 55KTS 64KTS 63KTS 60KTS
DSHP 55KTS 64KTS 63KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 30.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 27.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 24.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Seems to me when a storm "follows" a developing storm in front of it; the 2nd storm either dies or is a Fish Storm. I see 96L having this fate.
Maybe there is upwelling or a weakness created, but I seem to remember this happening time after time.
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Maybe there is upwelling or a weakness created, but I seem to remember this happening time after time.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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