ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

96L is looking alright now. Indeed better looking than yesterday.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow, thats actually pretty good looking wave,looks like pretty strong vorticity. And at 10.4N with 94L clearing out the SAL, this one could be the one to watch. I havent really checked to see what kind of model support it has, but Im guessing with the lack of activity on the models thread, probably not much.

[cycloneye]

Here is NHC preliminary thinking by 72 hours on 96L.

[ROCK]

so much better looking than 94L right now....I have to agree.....its not caught up in the low level flow just yet like 94L....so moving a tad slower....not sure of track just yet...still way out there....

[brunota2003]

With so many good looking lows and waves coming off the coast, if the low level easteries stop screaming, the Cape Verde season would get very active, very quick!

[cycloneye]

Not looking bad. 94L is helping to clean the sal for this.

[CrazyC83]

I agree - I'd go about 50% on this at next update.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%


AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

[northjaxpro]

96L looks rather good this evening. 94L has cleared the way for this system scouring out the SAL. It should be decent conditions for this to continue to develop and reach named status I feel within the next 36-48 hours. GFS runs a couple of days ago had this system developing and following on the heels of 94L and entering the Eastern Carribean by late this weekend. Still a ways to go with this system, but definitely looks impressive at this time.
__________________________

My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT caught the developing circulation around 6:57 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 103N, 269W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Stephanie]

96L definitely looks better than 94L at this point.

[ROCK]

96L definitely looks better than 94L at this point.

most defintely....its not fighting off the stable air like 94L and its not embedded in that screaming east to west low level flow....

[CrazyC83]

I think, without 94L to clear the dry air, this storm would be as good as dead. 94 and 96 are like a team, with 94 the big brother.

[CrazyC83]

Up to 50% now. There is an error in the graphic.

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[bob rulz]

Impressive!

And at just above 10N...that's a scary position for an Invest to be in. Obviously it's still a LONG ways out and may not even do anything, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

[Gustywind]

21/0545 UTC 10.6N 28.6W T1.0/1.0 96L
20/2345 UTC 10.4N 26.9W TOO WEAK 96L

[Gustywind]

Mentionned now as a special feature given the latest TWD

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N26W 13N27W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
10N27W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 22N BETWEEN 23W AND 34W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N30W 16N32W 10N33W TO THE WEST
OF THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

[tolakram]

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

[tolakram]

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