ATL: ISAAC - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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#561 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 20, 2012 4:57 pm

I think Haiti/DR is going to have a big impact on the system this run.

SFT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#562 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 4:58 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


passing under DR barely


94hr heading for Jamaica...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#563 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:00 pm

ROCK wrote:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F20%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


passing under DR barely


Passing that close it is a good possibility that the mountains would impact the inflow from the North. The islands will be the big fly in the ointment for forecasting intensity here.

SFT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#564 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:01 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F20%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


passing under DR barely


Passing that close it is a good possibility that the mountains would impact the inflow from the North. The islands will be the big fly in the ointment for forecasting intensity here.

SFT




all about the core bro when it comes to the islands....core remains offshore then it wont have a huge impact.....
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#565 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:01 pm

Looks like if it clears the South Coast of Haiti that it is starting to find a better environment at 90 hours...Is it just me or is it ramping up???

SFT
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#566 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:03 pm

Yep trying to deepen some after Hispaniola it looks like.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#567 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:04 pm

102hr.....over Jamaica....well at least the "L" is anyway..... :lol:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


114hr moving off the west end of Jamaica....still weak though...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#568 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:07 pm

looks further southwest on this run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#569 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:08 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:looks further southwest on this run



yes...tad south...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#570 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:10 pm

120hr ...still south of Cuba


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#571 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:11 pm

ROCK wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:looks further southwest on this run



yes...tad south...

Looks like it's trying to do the Cuban tour again, poor thing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#572 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:14 pm

really doesnt look all to healthy....126hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP126.gif
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#573 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:14 pm

120HR 12Z GFS
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


120 HR 18Z GFS
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

Further south
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#574 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:16 pm


Doesn't matter, it will just make a sharper turn to the north. I hope nobody expects this to get west of New Orleans; not happening with this pattern.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#575 Postby Stormlover2012 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:19 pm

yeah and rita,ike,gustav, and katrina was supposed to go towards florida and east coast also and we saw what happen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#576 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:22 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:yeah and rita,ike,gustav, and katrina was supposed to go towards florida and east coast also and we saw what happen.


Katrina made landfall in Florida as a hurricane?
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#577 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:22 pm

156 HR going up
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP156.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#578 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:24 pm

162HR over the Florida Keys

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical162.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#579 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:25 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:yeah and rita,ike,gustav, and katrina was supposed to go towards florida and east coast also and we saw what happen.

These systems are bad analogs for 94L, they did form in the MDR as tropical waves but the synoptic setup is different in that there is a persistent -NAO; also just following up on overall trends this year will lead you away from the scenario. Ike and Katrina formed farther north than 94L but still made landfall in Florida due to anomalous ridging over the western Atlantic, which we just don't have.

Hurricane Katrina
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Hurricane Ike
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#580 Postby Stormlover2012 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:25 pm

my bad I meant pandhandle fl thats where it was supposed to hit for its last landfall
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