ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Bocadude85]

Im thinking hurricane Cleo may be a good analog for this system

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cleo_1964_track.png

so you're thinking up the east coast of Florida?

No Im just saying according to the models today this could take a similar track.. could be further west or east.

[Blown Away]

Watch, 94L going to skirt or just north of Hispaniola and a Florida or Carolina's. May recurve before reaching CONUS.

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[thetraveler]

Well, if the GFS and the EURO are right about location we can only hope they are right on strength. From looking at the maps provided, the pressure stays high around 1002 or so.

[SouthFLTropics]

Watch, 94L going to skirt or just north of Hispaniola and a Florida or Carolina's. May recurve before reaching CONUS.

Your sticking to your guns about it passing North of Hispaniola...Gotta give you credit for that. If it does it may end up being a more formidable system.

SFT

[clipper35]

well i have no confidence in the models right at the moment this system what ever it will be called isaac but i think invest 96l is going to develop before 94l remember irene last season models had irene anywhere from texas to florida and lookk what happened models fluctuated for days on end so anything can happen just be patient all

[Riptide]

well i have no confidence in the models right at the moment this system what ever it will be called isaac but i think invest 96l is going to develop before 94l remember irene last season models had irene anywhere from texas to florida and lookk what happened models fluctuated for days on end so anything can happen just be patient all

Hurricane Irene is a decent historical analog for this 94L, looking at 94L's structure; it will probably form just east of the Islands, like Irene. Anything after that is up in question.

[Ixolib]

No Im just saying according to the models today this could take a similar track.. could be further west or east.

Agree PG. If I recall, Katrina was "modeled" first to go up the east coast of FL, then up the spine of FL, then up the west coast of FL, then to the big bend, then to AL, and then ultimately to her final destination. The westward trend went on for about two days I think. I realize that was seven years ago, and perhaps technology has improved, but the curve before FL or after FL is still something, IMO, that is uncertain, and certainly uncertain at this many hours out...

[clipper35]

No Im just saying according to the models today this could take a similar track.. could be further west or east.

Agree PG. If I recall, Katrina was "modeled" first to go up the east coast of FL, then up the spine of FL, then up the west coast of FL, then to the big bend, then to AL, and then ultimately to her final destination. The westward trend went on for about two days I think. I realize that was seven years ago, and perhaps technology has improved, but the curve before FL or after FL is still something, IMO, that is uncertain, and certainly uncertain at this many hours out...

i agree with you on that also recon has not even flown into this system yet and once they do all there info they gather will be submitted into the computer models then you will start to see things coming into place with regards to a possible track anyone from the gulf to new foundland need to pay close attention

[Blown Away]

Models starting to lean right.

[Riptide]

The GFS ensembles have been consistently east of Florida, and it may not mean much until we get closer.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I know 94l is too far out but the GFS was very consistent with Debby and Ernesto this year, especially Ernesto, so these runs of consistency shouldn't be thrown out as the GFS has been the best performer this year.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 18Z GFDL just came out. It takes 94L through Cuba and approaches South Florida at the end of the run. This model generally agrees with the GFS in taking 94L towards SFla.



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[SeminoleWind]

Been keeping an eye on the TVCN and its been pretty much in agreement with the GFS and EURO.

[tolakram]

Been keeping an eye on the TVCN and its been pretty much in agreement with the GFS and EURO.

Well it should, since the TVCN is a blend.

Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[Blown Away]

Slight 100 mile shift North near Hispaniola could result in a significant storm.

[ronjon]

18z GFS ensembles in good agreement with the latest operational run.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensembles500mbHGHTtropical_Loop.html

[SeminoleWind]

18z GFS ensembles in good agreement with the latest operational run.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensembles500mbHGHTtropical_Loop.html

Which is pretty interesting considering it is pretty far out

[blp]

18z GFDL is stronger with the system probably because it bypasses Hispaniola.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/20 ... .anim.html

[SeminoleWind]

18Z GFDL also appears to be Heading for the S.E. Florida coast this time.

[Bocadude85]

18Z GFDL also appears to be Heading for the S.E. Florida coast this time.

Yea and this run is the strongest I have seen GFDL forecast so far. 60kts off the coast of Cuba