Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

We can post about preparations,observations etc at the sticky thread at active storms/invests forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113410&p=2252890#p2252890

[msbee]

Thanks for this thread, Luis.
Her on St. Maarten it is a mostly wait and see attitude but many of the boat owners are securing their boats already.

[knotimpaired]

Luis,

Should be something we should be concerned about?

K

[cycloneye]

Luis,

Should be something we should be concerned about?

K

Only monitor for now,but I would start to prepare for at least some squally weather during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. If is much more than some squalls,then we have to prepare for something more significant,but for now that is my first glimpse about effects.

[Jimsot]

I agree. Clear the decks of light objects, but wait and see if it is going to be 'storm-shutter' time. Latest PICS show an exposed LLC that is not that healthy.

[cycloneye]

News from the Puerto Rico emergency agency.


AEMEAD encouraged to review emergency plans

Meanwhile, the executive director of the State Agency for Emergency Management and Disaster Management (AEMEAD), Heriberto Saurí Tuesday urged the public to be alert to passage of a tropical wave south of Puerto Rico between Wednesday and Thursday, and review family emergency plans as part of preparedness this hurricane season.

[knotimpaired]

Thanks Luis. I have about 300 people on my website and I sent them the PR warning.

[Gustywind]

Thanks Luis. I have about 300 people on my website and I sent them the PR warning.

Hi my friend, how are you . That's a nice job do that

[cycloneye]

2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADES
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO
RICO. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A TROPICAL
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

WE ARE MONITORING A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AGREE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DEEP
CONVECTION WITH INCREASING WINDS...SQUALLY CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS...BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE VERY HIGH BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS FCST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR PERIODS OF AFTN CONVECTION OVR THE WEST INTERIOR AND VCNTY OF
TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH 20/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOMING HAZARDOUS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 11 FEET IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. MARINERS SHOULD SEEK FURTHER DETAILS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AND THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 78 90 / 30 30 30 60
STT 81 90 80 92 / 20 30 40 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADES
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

WE ARE MONITORING A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AGREE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DEEP
CONVECTION WITH INCREASING WINDS...SQUALLY CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS...BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE VERY HIGH BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

[cycloneye]

Here is a web cam from the Butterfly island of Guadeloupe.

http://www.plage-guadeloupe.fr/

There are a bunch of others from different islands on the first post of the Caribbean - Central America Weather thread where the members can visit.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[msbee]

SxmDCOMM - ODM calls on population to monitor weather reports as disturbance approaches islands

From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2012 18:40:37 -0400

News Release

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org

For Immediate Release: Monday, August 20, 2012/N226

ODM calls on population to monitor weather reports as disturbance approaches islands

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) is calling on the population to monitor a Tropical Wave (TW) associated with a Low Pressure system #94, which on Monday has the potential to become a tropical storm within the next 48 hours.

The National Hurricane Center out of Miami says that interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of the disturbance which is forecasted to reach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday.

The system on Monday afternoon was located approximately over 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles out in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The disturbance is moving very fast at 20 to 25 miles per hour.

The ODM will be closely monitoring this system for possible further development.

# # #

Roddy Heyliger (Email/Blackberry: roddyheyliger at gmail.com; roddy.heyliger at sintmaartengov.org; Cells: +1 721 520-4217, 581-6323)
Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten

[CrazyC83]

The circulation is so big that this could become a dangerous flood threat in no time if convection gets going all the way around, even if only a weak storm.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Watch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...NINTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2N...LONGITUDE 51.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 930 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT
THOMAS VI. STORM MOTION WAS W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

AMZ722-732-735-741-VIZ002-220930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.1009.120821T0919Z-000000T0000Z/
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ST CROIX-
519 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Caribbean friends. Now is the time to make the final preparations.

Tropical Storm Watch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...NINTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2N...LONGITUDE 51.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 930 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT
THOMAS VI. STORM MOTION WAS W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

AMZ722-732-735-741-VIZ002-220930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.1009.120821T0919Z-000000T0000Z/
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ST CROIX-
519 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

[Gustywind]

Tropical Depression #9 Forms To The East Of The Lesser Antilles; Tropical Storm Watches & Warnings Issued For Puerto Rico, The Virgin Islands & The Leeward Islands
Tuesday, August 21, 2012 5:26 am

by Rob Lightbown
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Tropical Depression #9:
Invest 94L fired enough deep convection during the overnight hours to be considered a tropical depression, therefore, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 94L to Tropical Depression #9. TD 9 seems to be tracking a little south of due west at a forward speed of 18 to 19 mph. This system is currently located to the south of a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented high pressure system and this should keep TD 9 on a general westward track for the rest of this week. This track will bring TD 9 directly over the island of Dominica on Wednesday afternoon as a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm.

Once in the Caribbean, the track of TD 9/Isaac will be influenced by that high pressure ridge. Most of the forecast guidance show a track across the northern Caribbean, however, I think this may be too far of a north track, especially considering the depression’s current slightly south of due west track. Even the latest GFS model, which takes this system across central Cuba and then rakes all of Florida’s east coast before landfalling in eastern Georgia, seems a little too far north.

So, I’m leaning closer to the European model guidance track which takes TD 9/Isaac right across the islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica late Wednesday and then just south of Puerto Rico on Thursday. From there, the European model guidance forecasts that this system will miss Hispaniola and then track very close to the north coast of Jamaica on Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, the European model guidance forecasts a track that takes Isaac-to-be across western Cuba next Tuesday and then northward towards western Florida and the Florida Panhandle by next Thursday as possibly a hurricane.

So, all residents and vacationers in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should prepare for tropical storm conditions. Those of you further west across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba should closely monitor the progress of TD 9/Isaac. It is looking more and more likely that this system will be a hurricane when it tracks very close to Jamaica on Sunday.

Finally, all residents and vacationers across the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle need to keep very close tabs on the forecast track of this system. Go over your hurricane preparedness kits today and make sure you know what to do should Isaac come knocking on Florida’s door later next week.

I am monitoring Tropical Depression #9 very closely and will continue to update you on the latest.

[ouragans]

Sometimes, the warning system is surprising...

The advisory says Guadeloupe is under TS Warning, but nothing appears on Meteo France's website...

St Martin (northern part of a small island) is under TS Warning, and Sint Maarten is under TS Watch. And St Barths, which some miles SSE of St Martin has no watch, no warning

Anguilla which in NW from St Martin is under TS Warning

[Gustywind]

Sometimes, the warning system is surprising...

The advisory says Guadeloupe is under TS Warning, but nothing appears on Meteo France's website...

St Martin (northern part of a small island) is under TS Warning, and Sint Maarten is under TS Watch. And St Barths, which some miles SSE of St Martin has no watch, no warning

Anguilla which in NW from St Martin is under TS Warning

You're right Ouragans that's very surprising, i have no words for that... What are they doing at Meteo-France Guadeloupe

[Gustywind]

And Ouragans, should i mention that they don't have issue (Meteo-France Guadeloupe) any weather forecast ( for the moment) for Guadeloupe . All the weather forecasts have been issued for these islands... except... Guadeloupe