ATL: ISAAC - Models

[CourierPR]

We may see a track similar to Cleo in '64.

[thetraveler]

Good morning folks, of the spaghetti models, which one is the GFS and which one is the Euro? Any help is appreciated.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think the models wll begin depicting a stronger storm now that they are initialized with a more defined system. I don't trust the Euro's more south and west solution. The Euro has not had a good year.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the models wll begin depicting a stronger storm now that they are initialized with a more defined system. I don't trust the Euro's more south and west solution. The Euro has not had a good year.

Not so true. It nailed Ernesto.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think the models wll begin depicting a stronger storm now that they are initialized with a more defined system. I don't trust the Euro's more south and west solution. The Euro has not had a good year.

Not so true. It nailed Ernesto.

Not long range if I remember.

[tolakram]

Morning Folks.

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[Jevo]

Some GFS Spaghetti to start out the morning.

[Blown Away]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I find it interesting that the BAMD curves the system out. Given the present structure I could see a quicker intensification and an earlier NW movement.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html
HWRF shifts right and takes a stronger storm over the DR and into the SE Bahamas. I think this will be te trend.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
GFDL has also shifted a little right and has the system in the SE Bahamas.

[robbielyn]

thank goodness cuz we dont want it here in spring hill tampa area. we have had enough rain this year. plus looks like to go over eastern mountains of cuba now will weaken it pretty good.

[caneman]

Don't think I'd give much credence to the GFDL. I'll be following the GFS closely. Seems to be the one this year.

[boca]

My gut tells me this will end up east of Florida due to its strength.

[Stormlover2012]

This will show you how much can change with these storms!!


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[artist]

This will show you how much can change with these storms!!


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml

timing of fronts, etc. are going to be everything here.

[ROCK]

Don't think I'd give much credence to the GFDL. I'll be following the GFS closely. Seems to be the one this year.

the GFS has done very well this year, true.....but so has the EURO. If TD9 pulls out like the CMC has been showing for days then it will be the one...

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/06zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html
GFDL has also shifted a little right and has the system in the SE Bahamas.

Yea a "little right" pretty much right into worst case for SFL..Those waters after it exits Hati on this run would make him dangerous FAST..

[adam0983]

This is going to be a very close call for South Florida. This storm reminds of Hurricane Irene last year. The key is going to be what happens to the storm when it hits the island of Hispaniola. The timing of the weakness of the ridge will be important to see how far east and west the storm will get. It is going to be a long week.

[Stormlover2012]

Nobody knows if this will be a close call just yet, it's all about timing and etc