ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like another hot-tower fired just south of the COC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 210815.jpg

Building a good CDO from it.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 210915.GIF

[Gustywind]

Thank you. I thought I was getting nuts in my old age.

Luis can back me up on Irene. It played havoc here and it was months before our downed trees could be removed.

That the type of chart who always get anxious any islanders who live in the Lesser Antilles . And Knotimpaired is surely one of them like me who react quickly when seeing this image. But that was Irene hopefully and not TD9. Anyway, TD9 is becoming more threathing for all in the Leewards. We must be on guard islanders!

[OuterBanker]

Thank God no one has mentioned Donna. Can you imagine what that path would do today.

[knotimpaired]

Thank you. I thought I was getting nuts in my old age.

Luis can back me up on Irene. It played havoc here and it was months before our downed trees could be removed.

That the type of chart who always get anxious any islanders who live in the Lesser Antilles . And Knotimpaired is surely one of them like me who react quickly when seeing this image. But that was Irene hopefully and not TD9. Anyway, TD9 is becoming more threathing for all in the Leewards. We must be on guard islanders!

Hi Gusty, I was thinking about you earlier. Yes, the price we pay to live in the islands.

Stay safe my friend.

K

[ozonepete]

And also good to remind people, since this gets confused ...

Storms that hit sFL passed through one of the boxes, but not all storms that passed through the boxes hit south Florida. An important difference to note.

Like Irene just last year.

[sandyb]

And also good to remind people, since this gets confused ...

Storms that hit sFL passed through one of the boxes, but not all storms that passed through the boxes hit south Florida. An important difference to note.

Like Irene just last year.

Irene hit us here in NC I know what our local forecasters are saying but what about here do y'all think this is going to take the same path if so I wanna start getting gas for the generator now we stood in line for 2 hours last year for 5 gals of gas. And I wanna cook up lots of food that can be heated on the grille

[Aric Dunn]

looking quite good this morning, the initial convection collapsed but has refired somewhat still fighting the dry air but appears to be wining. could make a run for hurricane as it approaches the islands if it can maintain convection from now till then.

[ozonepete]

And also good to remind people, since this gets confused ...

Storms that hit sFL passed through one of the boxes, but not all storms that passed through the boxes hit south Florida. An important difference to note.

Like Irene just last year.

Irene hit us here in NC I know what our local forecasters are saying but what about here do y'all think this is going to take the same path if so I wanna start getting gas for the generator now we stood in line for 2 hours last year for 5 gals of gas. And I wanna cook up lots of food that can be heated on the grille

Way too early to tell. The smart thing to do is
1. keep informed - check in here once in a while.
2. Do any preps that you can now, such as canned goods, flashlights, etc. Save the cooking food and getting gas steps until it looks like it's going your way.

[artist]

And also good to remind people, since this gets confused ...

Storms that hit sFL passed through one of the boxes, but not all storms that passed through the boxes hit south Florida. An important difference to note.

Like Irene just last year.

Irene hit us here in NC I know what our local forecasters are saying but what about here do y'all think this is going to take the same path if so I wanna start getting gas for the generator now we stood in line for 2 hours last year for 5 gals of gas. And I wanna cook up lots of food that can be heated on the grille

sandy, this is the way I look at it. Get the gas now. If indeed this thing does strengthen, timing of fronts, etc. will mean everything as to where it could end up. Rather be safe than sorry and you can always use the extra gas for mowing, cars, etc. if indeed it by passes you. We get ours as the season starts, then keep it until the season is through, then use it and start all over the next year. By getting it it gives you peace of mind and you don't have to fight the crowds or worry if a station runs out, etc.

[knotimpaired]

And also good to remind people, since this gets confused ...

Storms that hit sFL passed through one of the boxes, but not all storms that passed through the boxes hit south Florida. An important difference to note.

Like Irene just last year.

Irene hit us here in NC I know what our local forecasters are saying but what about here do y'all think this is going to take the same path if so I wanna start getting gas for the generator now we stood in line for 2 hours last year for 5 gals of gas. And I wanna cook up lots of food that can be heated on the grille

LOL. Our island is about 8 miles from PR. We have been without gas on the island for days. We will be lucky to get it before the storm. My husband said when he passed it this morning there was a huge line, when it was not even open.

People have been known here to sleep in their cars overnight just to wait for it. This is no joke.

We always keep 25 gallons in our casita for the generator. A very good back up plan.

[knotimpaired]

Hey Luis, the radar just went out.

Perchance do you have any connections? It would be nice to get it back before the storm.

[Gustywind]

Thank you. I thought I was getting nuts in my old age.

Luis can back me up on Irene. It played havoc here and it was months before our downed trees could be removed.

That the type of chart who always get anxious any islanders who live in the Lesser Antilles . And Knotimpaired is surely one of them like me who react quickly when seeing this image. But that was Irene hopefully and not TD9. Anyway, TD9 is becoming more threathing for all in the Leewards. We must be on guard islanders!

Hi Gusty, I was thinking about you earlier. Yes, the price we pay to live in the islands.

Stay safe my friend.

K

Right! Excellent post . Thanks to you, stay safe too as the path with a possible Cat 1 cane south of you... is always worrying. Let's wait and see and hoping for the best:).

[hurricanefloyd5]

Bryan Norcross
A quick morning update. Tropical Depression #9 developed overnight, more or less on schedule, and looks pretty healthy this morning. We'll know more when Hurricane Hunters investigate this afternoon. All forecasts continue to show a threat to Florida as early as the weekend or more likely early next week. Most of the possible tracks at this point are over the water south of Hispaniola, although a track over the tall mountains can't be ruled out. If the system misses Hispaniola the big question becomes when the turn to the north comes, and how much the Cuban land mass can disrupt it. There is no obvious reason why it wouldn't strengthen into a hurricane by late in the week, unless it get too close to Hispaniola. The models are mixed on strengthening, but now the European model is showing a hurricane in the vicinity of Florida next week. The angle of the turn north makes a tremendous difference in where exactly the biggest effects are. Folks in the Florida Keys need to be vigilant... with possible early action require in a few days. Beyond that, the odds currently favor a higher threat to the west coast of Florida than the east, but it's too soon to be sure and tracks can change with developing systems. It would appear that a track toward the Florida east coast would mean the system went over the mountains of Hispaniola or Cuba, where a track closer to the west coast would include a track over the flatter, western part of Cuba, which often has less effect and means a stronger storm. Included in the reasonable tracks is a threat to the Tampa Bay area next week when the Republican Convention is planned. Tricky business.

[sandyb]

Yesterday I read an artical by Dr Masters (if I remember the name right) It was very informative I can not find it now but does anyone know how to find what he has to say today? Or if he does a write up each day? Thanks

[Gustywind]

looking quite good this morning, the initial convection collapsed but has refired somewhat still fighting the dry air but appears to be wining. could make a run for hurricane as it approaches the islands if it can maintain convection from now till then.

Aric, that won't be the ideal scenario with a cat 1 looming east of us . What elements concinved you about that... more than the warms sst and low shear ahead as predicted by the NHC??? Thanks you those who lived in the Lesser Antilles will appreciate sincerely

[BobHarlem]

Bryan Norcross
It would appear that a track toward the Florida east coast would mean the system went over the mountains of Hispaniola or Cuba, where a track closer to the west coast would include a track over the flatter, western part of Cuba, which often has less effect and means a stronger storm. Included in the reasonable tracks is a threat to the Tampa Bay area next week when the Republican Convention is planned. Tricky business.

Prepare for an onslaught of mass media overhype and political talking heads acting like hurricane experts.

[ozonepete]

Yesterday I read an artical by Dr Masters (if I remember the name right) It was very informative I can not find it now but does anyone know how to find what he has to say today? Or if he does a write up each day? Thanks

He writes every day. Here's the link:

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/Je ... /show.html

[Javlin]

Looking at the ATL RGB loop and what is soon to be Issac? When you look at the loop look at the cloud structure from 9-12 o'clock it's flat somewhat is something imparting a slight S push?Just an ob might be off base..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

looking quite good this morning, the initial convection collapsed but has refired somewhat still fighting the dry air but appears to be wining. could make a run for hurricane as it approaches the islands if it can maintain convection from now till then.

Aric, that won't be the ideal scenario with a cat 1 looming east of us . What elements concinved you about that... more than the warms sst and low shear ahead as predicted by the NHC??? Thanks you those who lived in the Lesser Antilles will appreciate sincerely

well even the nhc forecast calls for a hurricane just after it passes the islands. its all those you mentioned. low shear ssts the only inhibiting factor is the dry air but if it can maintain convection then the circ is plenty vigorous enough to get to hurricane or very close.

[OuterBanker]

Fla can get all the media hype. It will take the attention to us away. Any mention of a hurricane here would devestate our econmy. It has done so many times in the past.