ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chrisjslucia]

Yesterday I read an artical by Dr Masters (if I remember the name right) It was very informative I can not find it now but does anyone know how to find what he has to say today? Or if he does a write up each day? Thanks

This is the link to his blog. No update today as yet.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Jimsot]

LOL. Our island is about 8 miles from PR. We have been without gas on the island for days. We will be lucky to get it before the storm. My husband said when he passed it this morning there was a huge line, when it was not even open.

People have been known here to sleep in their cars overnight just to wait for it. This is no joke.

We always keep 25 gallons in our casita for the generator. A very good back up plan.

We never wait on Anguilla. Two days ago we got CASH from the bank and filled the car with GAS. We have plenty of propane and water. It is all part of the PREP. I MAY put up our east shutters but will definitely move the furniture off the patio. Stay safe everyone!

[Blown Away]

looking quite good this morning, the initial convection collapsed but has refired somewhat still fighting the dry air but appears to be wining. could make a run for hurricane as it approaches the islands if it can maintain convection from now till then.

Aric, that won't be the ideal scenario with a cat 1 looming east of us . What elements concinved you about that... more than the warms sst and low shear ahead as predicted by the NHC??? Thanks you those who lived in the Lesser Antilles will appreciate sincerely

Be safe Gusty, you island folks are seasoned and prepare!

[knotimpaired]

LOL. Our island is about 8 miles from PR. We have been without gas on the island for days. We will be lucky to get it before the storm. My husband said when he passed it this morning there was a huge line, when it was not even open.

People have been known here to sleep in their cars overnight just to wait for it. This is no joke.

We always keep 25 gallons in our casita for the generator. A very good back up plan.

We never wait on Anguilla. Two days ago we got CASH from the bank and filled the car with GAS. We have plenty of propane and water. It is all part of the PREP. I MAY put up our east shutters but will definitely move the furniture off the patio. Stay safe everyone!

Another thought for those that live in hurricane zones for prep. When we built our pool my husband had it plumbed with a pump to our cistern, therefore it can come in the house with a t-valve.

8000 gallons can go a long way when water shuts down.

[SouthFLTropics]

It would appear that there is currently a South of due West motion and that could have significant impact to the track and intensity down the road. It is possible that it will keep it South of the big islands and allow it to ramp up faster. Still think it will make the turn to the North at some point but with its current motion it may be more of a sweeping turn versus a sharper turn. Interesting and challenging days ahead for sure. Put the coffee on because I foresee sleepless nights of model watching. What concerns me at this point is even though the potential impact to the CONUS is days away the models have been locked on essentially the same solution for the past 2-3 days.

SFT

[fogbreath]

Just wanted to post my "stay safe" to everyone out there. I've always been tuned in to hurricanes and typhoons for that matter, with me being born in the FL panhandle and my parents coming from the Philippines.

Now that I've relocated from San Fran (about the most boring weather around) to Central Ohio as of late last year, I find out that this area isn't immune from the effects of a big one like when the remnants of Ike came through here in 2008. Interestingly, it was the latter storm that first let me know of storm2k's existence.

[Stormlover2012]

Yeah it's all about timing, I mean this is 7 days out anything can happen

[SeminoleWind]

Starting to pulse more storms near the center again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Gustywind]

looking quite good this morning, the initial convection collapsed but has refired somewhat still fighting the dry air but appears to be wining. could make a run for hurricane as it approaches the islands if it can maintain convection from now till then.

Aric, that won't be the ideal scenario with a cat 1 looming east of us . What elements concinved you about that... more than the warms sst and low shear ahead as predicted by the NHC??? Thanks you those who lived in the Lesser Antilles will appreciate sincerely

Be safe Gusty, you island folks are seasoned and prepare!

Thanks

[knotimpaired]

Yeah it's all about timing, I mean this is 7 days out anything can happen

Have you forgotten that some of us are going to get this in the next 30 hours or so

[Stormlover2012]

I am talking to the people in Florida, I haven't forgotten about y'all, don't worry I am concerned about pr and etc no doubt

[TheBurn]

Hey Luis, the radar just went out.

Perchance do you have any connections? It would be nice to get it back before the storm.

Apparently it's for maintenance and will be out +/-6hrs

WSR-88D Radar Outage Notification / Free Text Message
Issued by NWS

000
NOUS62 TJSJ 211245
FTMJUA

THE WFO SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) WILL BE TEMPORARILY
DOWN DUE TO MANDATORY MAINTENANCE FROM APPROX 21/12Z-21/18Z. THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR (TSJU) IS OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME.

RAM

[dexterlabio]

won't be surprised if i see Isaac when I get home later...

[msbee]

To Gusty and Cycloneye and all my island friends on this site, please be safe.
We have lots of uncertainty over this storm and we all know that even a tropical depression can bring rain and flooding to our fragile islands.
and I wish that the members on this site keep us in their minds as they are trying to analyze this storm.
The first point of concern and concentration right now should be the islands.
Then we shall see what lies ahead for the USA.
Thanks for thinking of us.

Barbara

[chrisjslucia]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

People wondering whether to "be prepared" or not, my own suggestion, FWIW, is given the time of the year and with TD 9 on our doorsteps, Invest 96 right behind (and little SAL left) and another one about to roll of the coast of Africa, be VERY prepared. As 9 heads for Guadeloupe (take care Gusty) it is big enough to bring heavy rain to both Leeward and Windward islands and the intensity at the time it crosses here and enters the Caribbean is still subject to debate and speculation. Don't panic, just prepare.

"Out of left field" is a well understood expression and these systems can do that at any time. Check the people in Trinidad who got hit by no 7 recently, even though it was supposed to be centred on St Lucia.

Looking forward to the news from the hurricane hunters later today.

[knotimpaired]

For those interested in Vieques weather as this slips by, we own the only weather station online on Vieques.

Go figure, the government has not even thought about it.

http://www.playcofi.net/weather

[Gustywind]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

People wondering whether to "be prepared" or not, my own suggestion, FWIW, is given the time of the year and with TD 9 on our doorsteps, Invest 96 right behind (and little SAL left) and another one about to roll of the coast of Africa, be VERY prepared. As 9 heads for Guadeloupe (take care Gusty) it is big enough to bring heavy rain to both Leeward and Windward islands and the intensity at the time it crosses here and enters the Caribbean is still subject to debate and speculation. Don't panic, just prepare.

"Out of left field" is a well understood expression and these systems can do that at any time. Check the people in Trinidad who got hit by no 7 recently, even though it was supposed to be centred on St Lucia.

Looking forward to the news from the hurricane hunters later today.

Thanks to you i appreciate sincerely. Yeah we don't panic but just prepare as you well said it . Your analysis is very interresting and pertinent, our friend from the USA should not forget that stormy conditions even hurricane ( hope not ) could be experiend on ours islands. Thanks to all, continue to keep us informed all the Pro Mets, etc the islands love you

[Gustywind]

To Gusty and Cycloneye and all my island friends on this site, please be safe.
We have lots of uncertainty over this storm and we all know that even a tropical depression can bring rain and flooding to our fragile islands.
and I wish that the members on this site keep us in their minds as they are trying to analyze this storm.
The first point of concern and concentration right now should be the islands.
Then we shall see what lies ahead for the USA.
Thanks for thinking of us.

Barbara

Oh Barbara that's a very nice post , i appreciate my friend from the Northern! Be aware too, any change can put you too under TD9, we never know!

[Gustywind]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Aric, what your latest" forecasts" on TD9 in terms of intensity and path as it could cross the Leewards islands near Guadeloupe wit a TS status?
Thanks to you.

[Dean4Storms]

00z GFS 18 hour position, well above 15N.

Looks like the GFS is under estimating the Ridge......

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal018.gif