ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM THE
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE TO
17N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN
23W AND 36W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS
ALONG 23N31W 17N34W 10N35W TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

[meriland23]

what are the chances that this and 94 are both hurricanes you think?

[Gustywind]

Position is curiously a bit souther than the previous one... south of 10 N and approaching the 30 west, always something to keep an eye on for sure.

21/1200 UTC 9.5N 29.3W T1.0/1.0 96L
21/0545 UTC 10.6N 28.6W T1.0/1.0 96L

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps, can someone put a sat pic of 96L please? . Thanks. We could have a better idea of this feature moving westward at a low lattitude

[tolakram]

Not quite in range for really good still images yet.

From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

[Aric Dunn]

we should have td 10 later today. or tonight. convection on the increase this morning and low shear and a closed circ. so if the trend continues as nothing appears to be inhibiting it atm.

[ROCK]

we should have td 10 later today. or tonight. convection on the increase this morning and low shear and a closed circ. so if the trend continues as nothing appears to be inhibiting it atm.

I agree....I wonder why the globals dont do much with it.....

[Weatherfreak000]

what are the chances that this and 94 are both hurricanes you think?

I am not sure... rock brought up the point I was going to but models are sketchy with intensity I mean...I think this invest is a serious player.

[ROCK]

what are the chances that this and 94 are both hurricanes you think?

I am not sure... rock brought up the point I was going to but models are sketchy with intensity I mean...I think this invest is a serious player.

hard to go against presentation right now and 94L managed to chop a hole into the SAL.....low lat, a decent speed, could become a carib cruiser if it holds off developing for a few more days. JMO

[ROCK]

floaters up...thank goodness...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Weatherfreak000]

Structure looks good but perhaps still not sufficient for classification. I think being at such a low lat is the key here

[CrazyC83]

Being so low lends itself to a more southerly track, correct? This is more of a concern for the Windwards, or will it just follow 09L?

[Weatherfreak000]

My shot in the dark guess is yes it should be a Caribbean cruiser.

[CrazyC83]

My shot in the dark guess is yes it should be a Caribbean cruiser.

Being out of 09L's wake would make the water even warmer. I have a REALLY bad feeling about this one...even more so than 09L...

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds112.png

1131Z ASCAT pass: Not quite a closed circulation but close; winds likely at tropical storm force (several 30-35 kt barbs). Could be TS Joyce by tonight (assuming 09L becomes Isaac) at this rate.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 60%.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

21/1800 UTC 9.9N 30.6W TOO WEAK 96L
21/1200 UTC 9.5N 29.3W T1.0/1.0 96L

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N29W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 10N31W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
A LARGE AREA FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 29W-36W.

[cycloneye]

Let's not forget this little guy,well compared to the other one in front It looks well organized.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.9N 30.8W TO 11.9N 36.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 09.9N
30.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. LOW WINDS SHEAR VALUES OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80F TO 84F PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED
BY 222000Z.//