ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Riptide]

Operational GFS does not seem to be following the majority of the ensembles...interesting.

SFT

96L is also more prominent and trailing behind TD9, very interesting situation.

[Bocadude85]

84HR nearing Haiti

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical084.gif

[Javlin]

[quote="Bocadude85Whats the OFCI? looks very similar to the NHC track but just extended out some.[/quote]

I thought it was possibily?

[SouthFLTropics]

People can say what they want about JB but for the better part of this month he has been saying that activity would pick up on or around the 20th. He's pretty much spot on in regards to that. Although, statistically speaking it was a good bet he was going to be right because it is that time of year.

SFT

[Bocadude85]

96HR heading for eastern Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical096.gif

[meriland23]

Seems they slightly upped the MB too. 1004mb during 06z run at 084 hrs, this time 1000 mb, tinge south at 12z run and 078 hrs

[SouthFLTropics]

Wonder if it will try and shoot through the Windward Passage...If it does it may not feel dramatic impacts from the mountains.

SFT

[ROCK]

[quote="Bocadude85Whats the OFCI? looks very similar to the NHC track but just extended out some.

I thought it was possibily?[/quote]


The OFCI is the NHC track.... they usually follow the blend model TVCN though....but in this case they are splitting the difference....

[Javlin]

[quote="Bocadude85Whats the OFCI? looks very similar to the NHC track but just extended out some.

I thought it was possibily?[/quote]

Here you go ..

Numerous objective forecast aids (guidance models) are available to help the NHC Hurricane Specialists in the preparation of their official track and intensity forecasts. Guidance models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether or not they are available to the Hurricane Specialist during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC (12Z) forecast cycle, which begins with the 12Z synoptic time and ends with the release of the official forecast at 15Z. The 12Z run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 16Z, or about an hour after the forecast is released - thus the 12Z GFS would be considered a late model since it could not be used to prepare the 12Z official forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

[Bocadude85]

108HR on the coast of Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical108.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

So far it looks a lot like this mornings run of the GFDL...

SFT

[meriland23]

looks like it is going to curve its way north between cuba and dom

[ROCK]

if its crossing Cuba there then I smell a right shift coming up.....

[Bocadude85]

120HR on the coast of Cuba still
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical120.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

if its crossing Cuba there then I smell a right shift coming up.....

Maybe, maybe not...I think it will all depend on what the EURO shows later today. I think NHC will go with a blend of the GFS to the right and the EURO to the left. That leaves FLA right in the middle...

SFT

[meriland23]

if its crossing Cuba there then I smell a right shift coming up.....

iono, 108hrs at 12z and 114hrs at 06z are in the exact same position. Only difference is strength is slightly better in this run

[pgoss11]

I sense a right shift

[Bocadude85]

126HR crossing central Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical126.gif

[meriland23]

114hrs
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP114.gif

[Riptide]

I remain convinced that the interaction with 96L is going to be ridiculous.