ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

How far west do you think this may shift? We all know that the cone will shift back and forth, but just wondering how far west would it shift. Is there a blocking mechanism farther west that may keep it from entering the central GOM?

Nothing we can identify presently that would push it to the central or NW Gulf. Of course, things can change over the coming days.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to be firing a new hot tower right near the center just below 15N. Motion looks to be steady west to me. Right on track with model and NHC guidance. Will be interesting to see what kind of intensity we see it reach in the Eastern Caribbean "Graveyard". As Wxman pointed out the instability is not there like it should be but with such a vigorous circulation I think TD9 will take a run to at least Cat 2 status before landfall on Hispaniola and/or Cuba.

SFT

[AdvAutoBob]

Hmmmm.....I'm starting to wonder if it may. Just stay weak and trek west.

Yes I do believe cones will be shifting west

How far west do you think this may shift? We all know that the cone will shift back and forth, but just wondering how far west would it shift. Is there a blocking mechanism farther west that may keep it from entering the central GOM?

Recon needs to get some solid data for the models to chew on to get a better idea of where the cone should be...

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[WeatherGuesser]

WASHINGTON - All eyes were on the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday as a tropical depression began picking up steam, threatening the Republican National Convention, which convenes in Tampa next week


http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/ ... 57184622/1

[ouragans]

Gusty, a question for you.

11 am NHC advisory says:
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

Are the authorities cautious usually or is it assumed Martinique is liable to storm conditions tomorrow? I ask as I look out over Martinique....

People in Martinique are almost 100pct sure I... will hit Guadeloupe, and that once it's not a 120mph-thing, it's no big deal. We have a hurricane weather journal every night at 08:05PM, and they only started to inform people of "some bad weather" last night... no information on a possible TD or TS...

Let's hope tonight they can sensibilize people more about the potential threat

[JonathanBelles]

My latest thoughts are up: viewtopic.php?p=2254216#p2254216

[SouthFLTropics]

WASHINGTON - All eyes were on the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday as a tropical depression began picking up steam, threatening the Republican National Convention, which convenes in Tampa next week


http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/ ... 57184622/1

This is terrific...Just what we need. A bunch of political talking heads like Brian Williams, Chris Matthews, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Bill O'Reilly all thinking they are experts at tropical forecasting. The broadcasts coming out of Tampa in the days to come should be very interesting and entertaining to say the least. I'm sure we will all get a good laugh at some of the comments that are presented.

SFT

[Zeno8]

Hmmmm.....I'm starting to wonder if it may. Just stay weak and trek west.

Yes I do believe cones will be shifting west

How far west do you think this may shift? We all know that the cone will shift back and forth, but just wondering how far west would it shift. Is there a blocking mechanism farther west that may keep it from entering the central GOM?

Just my opinion based on intensity and steering......everything "CURRENTLY" would be funneled into FL. but it is very dynamic

[LaBreeze]

Gusty, a question for you.

11 am NHC advisory says:
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

Are the authorities cautious usually or is it assumed Martinique is liable to storm conditions tomorrow? I ask as I look out over Martinique....

People in Martinique are almost 100pct sure I... will hit Guadeloupe, and that once it's not a 120mph-thing, it's no big deal. We have a hurricane weather journal every night at 08:05PM, and they only started to inform people of "some bad weather" last night... no information on a possible TD or TS...

Let's hope tonight they can sensibilize people more about the potential threat

Stay safe ouragans.

[wxman57]

Recon is finding some VERY dry air enroute Nine. I hear the plane was reporting RH of 6% at 58W before it began its descent.

[Aric Dunn]

recon coming up on first pass through center.

[wxman57]

Not much of a center to pass through, presently. Shouldn't be any surprises.

[Gustywind]

the 17:15 high visible picture shows the center just south of 15N we will get a better idea once the recon arrives

The center just south of 15N?

Here in Martinica the bulletin is:
"An evolution of the depression to a tropical storm is expected within 24 hours. According to the most probable path, the center will pass close to the Guadeloupe tomorrow evening. In this hypothèse Martinique will be the most affected by rainy begin in late tonight. It rains intensify the next night and continue Thursday significant accumulations are expected.
The strongest winds are deployed north of the disturbance and should not concern us. However strong gusts accompany squall lines. The sea will grow gradually between 2m50 and 3 meter
We can not exclude at this time that the path is closer to the Martinique. The probability is low. In this case wind and sea will be more pronounced."

What do you think?

Sorry for my english...

First be welcomed here Where do you have these infos? what weather site please, because of that is very important... Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

looks like pressure is going to be a couple mb's lower than the 2pm recon not to center and already 1008mb.

[Aric Dunn]

Not much of a center to pass through, presently. Shouldn't be any surprises.

what do you mean? although no convection the center is very well defined.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not much of a center to pass through, presently. Shouldn't be any surprises.

wxman, I know you'be been bearish on this system really getting it's act together
for quite some time, so maybe you will be right when all is said and done......

I noticed that nobody can still seem to answer why the atlantic storms this year are
moving at such incredibly high speeds. I guess it's just one of those unexplained meteorological mysteries.

[uhvjaguars22]

Wxman says it how it is! middle texas has a dome around it should be now worries for us. Another mexico storm probably

[otowntiger]

Is it me or does it look as if the LLC is becoming exposed better and may be moving more WNW recently?

It's not you. I noticed what looks like a big slow-down and a jog NW-NNW in the last hour or two. That may be why its experiencing the NE-E shear currently. Low level flow above the surface is moving a lot faster than the LLC. I think this is only a temporary wobble, however. General west motion should resume shortly. When that happens, I expect convection to rebuild over the center.

wxman57 what's your take on TD Nine's future and potential affect on the Continental US?

[deltadog03]

I would imagine that the dry should keep this in check over the next few days. That, to me, will make the EURO's and somewhat of the GFS' track look pretty good...IMO

[madinina972]

the 17:15 high visible picture shows the center just south of 15N we will get a better idea once the recon arrives

The center just south of 15N?

Here in Martinica the bulletin is:
"An evolution of the depression to a tropical storm is expected within 24 hours. According to the most probable path, the center will pass close to the Guadeloupe tomorrow evening. In this hypothèse Martinique will be the most affected by rainy begin in late tonight. It rains intensify the next night and continue Thursday significant accumulations are expected.
The strongest winds are deployed north of the disturbance and should not concern us. However strong gusts accompany squall lines. The sea will grow gradually between 2m50 and 3 meter
We can not exclude at this time that the path is closer to the Martinique. The probability is low. In this case wind and sea will be more pronounced."

What do you think?

Sorry for my english...

First be welcomed here Where do you have these infos? what weather site please, because of that is very important... Thanks

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ew%20Date().getTime()

But here in Martinique, MF said phenomene will pass in the north so nobody take care...