ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Wthrman13
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1001 Postby Wthrman13 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:34 pm

Javlin wrote:
My misunderstanding been awhile since my studies but had to consider Air as a fluid in the past figuring equations so I figured you add more moisture then you would increase weight.Warm modecules move quicker than cold/cold heavier maybe two lines of thought are diverging?


ozonepete and psyclone are correct. Moist air (air with water vapor) is less dense and therefore more buoyant than the same amount of dry air at the same temperature, though this effect alone is not enormous. This is because water vapor molecules are lighter (on a per-molecule basis) than the two other main constituents of air, oxygen and nitrogen molecules. What also makes thunderstorm updrafts so buoyant is the fact that the condensation of water vapor as cloud forms within them releases a large amount of heat (the so-called "latent heat of condensation") which helps counteract the cooling that occurs as the updraft expands while rising. This latent heat release is the main driver of a deep convective updraft.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1002 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:37 pm

1005.4 mb
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1003 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Not much of a center to pass through, presently. Shouldn't be any surprises.


what do you mean? although no convection the center is very well defined.


I mean that they won't need to strap themselves in to penetrate the eyewall. ;-)
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#1004 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:43 pm

recon finding TS winds. they may upgrade.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1005 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:47 pm

Maybe a wobble, but that LLC is moving WNW to NW?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1006 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:47 pm

I wonder if it's possible to fly into any TD with convection and not find TS winds? Could be a pocket of TS winds there. Maybe Isaac at 4pm. Not a sign it is strengthening, just that it probably was a TS overnight.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1007 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:50 pm

Convection does appear to be increasing again, good time for recon to be in the system.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1008 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:I wonder if it's possible to fly into any TD with convection and not find TS winds? Could be a pocket of TS winds there. Maybe Isaac at 4pm. Not a sign it is strengthening, just that it probably was a TS overnight.

yeah it was probably a TD a couple days ago despite the lack of convection. the forward motion also helps with the wind speed.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1009 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:50 pm

Blown Away wrote:Maybe a wobble, but that LLC is moving WNW to NW?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


WOW! sure looks like it seems like a first this season in that neck of the woods always W.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1010 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:51 pm

Blown Away wrote:Maybe a wobble, but that LLC is moving WNW to NW?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


yup that's what wxman was talking about a bit earlier......and if that's not a wobble....man that is some illusion!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1011 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:55 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:
Javlin wrote:
My misunderstanding been awhile since my studies but had to consider Air as a fluid in the past figuring equations so I figured you add more moisture then you would increase weight.Warm modecules move quicker than cold/cold heavier maybe two lines of thought are diverging?


ozonepete and psyclone are correct. Moist air (air with water vapor) is less dense and therefore more buoyant than the same amount of dry air at the same temperature, though this effect alone is not enormous. This is because water vapor molecules are lighter (on a per-molecule basis) than the two other main constituents of air, oxygen and nitrogen molecules. What also makes thunderstorm updrafts so buoyant is the fact that the condensation of water vapor as cloud forms within them releases a large amount of heat (the so-called "latent heat of condensation") which helps counteract the cooling that occurs as the updraft expands while rising. This latent heat release is the main driver of a deep convective updraft.



Thanks for the input Sir been along time(mid 90's) since my schooling days and do not use it anymore.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1012 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:55 pm

cpdaman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Maybe a wobble, but that LLC is moving WNW to NW?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


yup that's what wxman was talking about a bit earlier......and if that's not a wobble....man that is some illusion!



its only in response to each burst of convection pulling the center. it is not a change in general direction. besides that convection should begin to really come back over the next couple hours.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1013 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:55 pm

Blown Away has been all in on his bet that 9 would go above Hispaniola...If that loop is right and that motion continues he may be onto something here...Maybe NOGAPS and CMC are right after all???

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1014 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cpdaman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Maybe a wobble, but that LLC is moving WNW to NW?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


yup that's what wxman was talking about a bit earlier......and if that's not a wobble....man that is some illusion!



its only in response to each burst of convection pulling the center. it is not a change in general direction. besides that convection should begin to really come back over the next couple hours.



What are you saying Aric like a it's out of balance maybe?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1015 Postby Shuriken » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:58 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I noticed that nobody can still seem to answer why the atlantic storms this year are
moving at such incredibly high speeds. I guess it's just one of those unexplained meteorological mysteries.
I've answered the "mystery" several times by noting that 20-25kt forward speeds are not atypical for central Atlantic Cape Verde pre-TDs at or under 15N.
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Re:

#1016 Postby otowntiger » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:59 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:recon finding TS winds. they may upgrade.
won't they need more than just wind to upgrade? I mean it seems to have very little in the way of meaninful convection. Can a windy naked swirl be worthy?
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#1017 Postby psyclone » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:05 pm

It looks like some of the convection in the southeast quad may try to wrap into the main circulation.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1018 Postby alienstorm » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:06 pm

Once that moisture on the SE side of the storm starts wrapping in - look out
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1019 Postby alienstorm » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:08 pm

184300 1529N 05247W 9840 00212 //// +217 //// 149042 044 040 005 01
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#1020 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:10 pm

Convection should be starting pop here shortly. there appears to be a developing eddy just on the west side of the center. typically due to a change in pressure. could be some deep convection may fire soon.
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