ATL: ISAAC - Models

[JPmia]

Looks like the EURO has its eyes on the FL panhandle this run. or darn near close.

yeah MS/AL/Pensacola area looks to me.. where's Ivanhater?

[Aric Dunn]

question is, how reliable is euro this far out based on past hurricanes.. vs the GFS.. this is the first time I have seen a route like this for td 9, and the emmense strength

all models drop in accuracy... what to take from this run is still the same as before. the weakness will be there. the only reason the euro is farther west is because it is faster than the rest of models does not slow down soon to be issac and this gets farther west before the weakness develops. the models are actually in good agreement on the weakness just disagree in the speed of the system.

240 hours a 956 mb hurricane.

[deltadog03]

This run is super bad news for the FL panhandle....I don't know if this is ultimately right, but you have think, *for now* GFS over the spine of FL and EURO is near mobile......pretty good consensus for 8-10 days away.

[uhvjaguars22]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Texas is out of this one central to eastern gulf likely in my opinion

[Stormlover2012]

Lol it's 7 days nobody knows where this is going

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow. That's NGOM no doubt. The question is how much can the models shift west? Also don't call people people I disagree with here on the forum. That's a terrible thing to say.

[LaBreeze]

961 MB

961 MB would be comparable to what category hurricane?

[Stormlover2012]

I mean people buy into models 7 days out and think euro is wrong bec it shift west bec it's not where the gfs is, I mean everyone needs to be realistic here, it's going to keep changing and changing

[DESTRUCTION5]

10 days to make it to the Central Gulf? Things that make you go Humm....Euro will need some consistancy before I could buy that scenario..

[Blown Away]

Seems the Euro doesn't see TD9 as a storm for first 120 hours, so that makes sense a shallow system would go west. Maybe a trend setter, but most of the models see TD9 deepening and responding to the trough. Gonna be interesting.

[Kingarabian]

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961 MB

961 MB would be comparable to what category hurricane?

Could be a Cat 2-3. Really depends on the size of the hurricane though.

[meriland23]

961 MB

961 MB would be comparable to what category hurricane?

cat 3

[LaBreeze]

10 days to make it to the Central Gulf? Things that make you go Humm....Euro will need some consistancy before I could buy that scenario..

Agreed

[wxwatcher1999]

Texas is out of this one central to eastern gulf likely in my opinion

How do you know Texas is out of this one...I have heard that many times before and in the end the storm went to Texas

[Kingarabian]

Texas is out of this one central to eastern gulf likely in my opinion

How do you know Texas is out of this one...I have heard that many times before and in the end the storm went to Texas

I think that Shortwave trough will make it really difficult for it to make it to Texas. But who knows?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Hi Modelers

Please keep discussions to models and model runs and try to avoid forecasting where you think it is going. If you do have a prediction you must use the disclaimer, no exceptions, but prediction posts usually belong in the discussion thread. Traffic will be getting extremely heavy over the next few days and we won't always have time to warn but instead just delete posts. Repeated violations may result in account suspensions.


Thanks for your cooperation.

[uhvjaguars22]

no one knows when the models start trending to mexico then we will start worrying lol although a week ago the gfs showed a hurricane hitting texas end of august

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure don't like that run here in Pensacola. Of course things can and most often times do change from run to run of each model. Our friends in the islands take care...will know much much more in the coming days as to where folks in the mainland need to take heed.

[Weatherboy1]

FWIW, HPC day 6-7 positions for TD9 are just off the SW coast of FL heading generally NW to NNW. A more gradual turn in general being forecasted, but as several people have noted (myself included!) we are still 6-ish days out on this thing. Could be an Ivan, could be a Cleo, or could be something else entirely! Really too early to say!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter

[ROCK]

I so love the EURO....just when you think all is set in stone it throws out a wrench.....did this with IKE and now with TD9.....if it starts showing this next run then really need to take notice....