ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman76]

Recon pegged Isaac moving at 18 knots. down from 20 knots earlier. Earlier it was at 270 degrees now it's 275. probably a wobble.

[adam0983]

The GFS solution looks to be wining for now.

[WeatherGuesser]

So we still don't know if it will be Gulf or Coastal and may not for a few days.

[northjaxpro]

Well you are right they are primitive equation models not specifically baroclinic or barotropic but one of the assumptions often used in these models to make the governing equations simpler to solve is to assume the atmosphere is barotropic. At least that was the case with the NGM and MRF when I was in school. And of course each model has it's own physics package to handle different situations which is probably a good thesis paper.

Speed and intensity aren't directly proportional. Yes a slower moving storm has a better chance to strengthen rapidly as it does not outrun it's convection. but you can have a strong storm move very fast or very slow. Same is true of a weak storm zipping along or just sitting there. What is more important about speed is timing with fronts. If isaac remains fast it will intersect the trough farther west and turn farther west. If it is slower the intersection is farther east.

Shear also affect the storm as it has isaac so far, but this should be dissipating. Remember the atmosphere around a storm controls it's movement not the storm itself. but it's like a cork in the stream. if you put a small cork in the stream it floats along bouncing like a bouy. If you throw a large ball in the stream there is more surface area to push against and it moves faster plus it can sample more of the stream being affected by currents that the small cork may not feel. Isaac has such a large envelope it should feel more than a small compact storm. hence the correction for storm strength in this case. But then again like all rules in meteorology they don't always apply the same. Every situation is different, every initial condition is different and every outcome is different.

There is another reason I like a farther East storm. For some reason the GFS likes to hit the pattern in the super long range. In this case when Isaac was in the long range it had it up the coast. in the middle range the GFS loves to lose it's idea, only to come back in the short range to it's original idea. This is why the ECMWF is usually a far superior model, especially when multiple jets are involved, split flow that sort of thing. The reason I don;t believe the 12z ECMWF is i feel this will be a stronger storm than progged. In fact the latest recon at 1004 mb is much lower than the 24 hr ECMWF at a sub 1012 mb storm. maybe it weakens but I'm hedging it doesn't.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First, welcome aboard to Storm2K. It is always great to have another pro met on this blog.

Great anaysis and insight you provided us here. I hope you will come on here frequently with your thoughts and analysis with Issac and future storms and events. Again welcome!

[jlauderdal]

All systems go. He's ready for lift off.
I can imagine the local media in SFL must be in a frenzy.

its to early for full frenzy but im sure channel 7 will be leading the charge as soon as ethically possible

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Anybody still buy east coast storm?

[SouthFLTropics]

Fox News Website is showing on its' breaking news banner "Tropical Storm Isaac forms in the Atlantic Ocean, Could effect GOP Convention".

The media hype is kicking into high gear.

SFT

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Anybody still buy east coast storm?

Raises hand

[ColdFusion]

Fox News already starting with this BREAKING NEWS at the top of their page:

Tropical Storm Isaac Forms in Atlantic Ocean, Could Effect GOP Convention

[wxman57]

So we still don't know if it will be Gulf or Coastal and may not for a few days.

My gut is saying Florida Panhandle.

[Aric Dunn]

So we still don't know if it will be Gulf or Coastal and may not for a few days.

My gut is saying Florida Panhandle.

Thats what im thinking.

[SunnyThoughts]

So we still don't know if it will be Gulf or Coastal and may not for a few days.

My gut is saying Florida Panhandle.

There is an intestinal virus going around...I don't wish you to be ill, but I hope thats why your "gut" feels the way it does. Change that gut feeling right now wxman.

[tolakram]

Center is covered again. latest



Saved loop: http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/5879/zzvisanimated.gif

[kristina]

Hello everyone, I have been following Storm 2K every year since Isabel hit us here in Virginia and just today decided to join. All of you have been so informative for us here for years and look forward to another great storm year! Hello Isaac and welcome to the Atlantic can not wait to see what you have in store for us on land....

[SunnyThoughts]

Hello everyone, I have been following Storm 2K every year since Isabel hit us here in Virginia and just today decided to join. All of you have been so informative for us here for years and look forward to another great storm year! Hello Isaac and welcome to the Atlantic can not wait to see what you have in store for us on land....

glad you decided to join Kristina. Welcome aboard!

[SouthFLTropics]

Just received a breaking news alert on my iPhone from WPBF Channel 25 in West Palm Beach... "Tropical Storm Isaac could hit Florida as hurricane by Monday".

I find this type of reporting somewhat misleading. True, it could hit as a hurricane by Monday. But what happens when it doesn't and everyone says that the media cried wolf. Next time when there is a real threat no one buys into it and it costs lives.

Heck, we COULD get hit by a meteorite by Monday. I think the media should be a little more discerning when dispensing information because it can do a disservice down the road during future storms.

But, hey...It's exactly what I expected them to do.

SFT

Sorry for the soapbox rant...Back to your normal wobble watching...

[Riptide]

It appears that the LLC is racing at an angle of around 300(NW). Mabye an illusion because of the convection; could be significant or perhaps just another wobble.

[Bocadude85]

So we still don't know if it will be Gulf or Coastal and may not for a few days.

My gut is saying Florida Panhandle.

Well that makes me feel a little better here in South Florida.. my business can not handle being shut down for days at a time

[deltadog03]

So we still don't know if it will be Gulf or Coastal and may not for a few days.

My gut is saying Florida Panhandle.

I 2nd that.....This could be quite interesting.

[tolakram]

Convection really appears to be on the increase this evening. Those in the islands need to keep an eye out, you know how these intensity forecasts can be.