Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Same here guys. Watching and waiting to see how this evolves.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ISAAC IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RAIN GAGES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
RAINFALL. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC THAT QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR THIS
REASON A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI
FLORIDA...AT 2 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4N...LONGITUDE 53.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 820
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 730 MILES EAST OF
SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC LOCAL STATEMENT...AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST BULLETINS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFO AND
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ISSAC MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH TKPK AND TNCM WEDNESDAY
MORNING SPREADING ACROSS PR AND VI TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOMING HAZARDOUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH SEAS BUILDING BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MARINERS SHOULD SEEK FURTHER DETAILS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AND THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 86 / 40 50 90 90
STT 80 89 80 85 / 40 70 90 100

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards are now under an orange alert due to Isaac arrival tommorow afternoon (late).

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime() (Guadeloupe forecast)

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime() (Nothern Leewards forecast)

[Gustywind]

Orange cyclone vigilance for the storm Isaac

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php

At 5PM center was located about 810 km east of Guadeloupe. Depression is now classified as tropical storm. The storm tropical Isaac will cross the Caribbean arc at the level of Guadeloupe, on Wednesday evening.


First thundery showers arrived as early as tonight and continue into Wednesday. They intensify and become more sustainable in the night of Wednesday to Thursday and Thursday day. Accumulations of rainfall may exceed 100 mm / 24 hours at many points, as well Wednesday as Thursday.
Tonight and tomorrow, the wind blows moderately northeast to North but temporarily boosts grain stormy passage. The wind became more sustained after the passage of the storm centre on the night of Wednesday to Thursday. He then swung South-South-East and breath between around 60 km/h of average with gusts in the order of 80-100 km/h.
The sea is widening gradually tomorrow during the day. Average lows are around 2 m 50 Wednesday evening, then 3 m 3 m 50 Thursday morning with maximum 6 m waves in a swell northeast then East. Cross-swell phenomena then make the chaotic sea. In Caribbean, hollow of 2 m are expected Thursday in a main Southeast swell.
Heavy rains expected may cause disturbances: flooding, overflow of streams and gullies, and to make difficult traffic conditions.

[HUC]

Helo all; come back after several months due to desease(all is fine now)and birth of our grand-child in Lyon (France)
Preparing for at least heavy rains,and i inspect all my hurricane prepadness All is o.k.My weather station (wizard III ) is operational,and i got a new computer.
Be safe all of you;that's not a hurricane nor a cat 3 or 4,but EVERY STORM IS DANGEROUS AND HAVE TO BE TAKING WITH RESPECT.
kEEP YOU INFORMED FRIENDS

[FireBird]

To all my dear Carib friends projected in the path of Isaac - my best wishes and thoughts are with you: Cycloneye, Gustywind, MsBee, Knotimpaired, and others not mentioned.
While I know each of you will do your best to prepare, at the end of the day, it's usually our primal survival instincts that protect or save us when we follow those undeniable "gut feelings".
Stay safe ppl.

[msbee]

SxmDCOMM - No school on Wednesday; Normal Business Operations

From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2012 19:39:06 -0400

News Release – RADIO ANNOUNCEMENT – URGENT BULLETIN

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org

For Immediate Release: Tuesday, August 21, 2012/N230 Advisory #5 – RADIO ANNOUNCEMENT

No school on Wednesday; Normal business operations
Country remains under a Tropical Storm Warning

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Prime Minister based on the advice of the Office of Disaster Management in consultation with the Meteorological Department of Curacao (MDC), has taken the decision late Tuesday that there will be no school on Wednesday, 22 August.

Tropical Storm Isaac, the ninth storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, is forecasted to pass Wednesday afternoon near Guadeloupe.

Weather conditions around Guadeloupe up to as far as St. Eustatius and Saba are expected to deteriorate, with some impact on Sint Maarten.

MDC has advised that a feeder rain band from Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to impact weather conditions on the island.

The school closure is a precautionary measure.

Businesses can open and operate as normal on Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the country. A Tropical Storm Warning means that storm conditions are expected within 36 hours somewhere within the warning area.

ODM will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

[Gustywind]

Helo all; come back after several months due to desease(all is fine now)and birth of our grand-child in Lyon (France)
Preparing for at least heavy rains,and i inspect all my hurricane prepadness All is o.k.My weather station (wizard III ) is operational,and i got a new computer.
Be safe all of you;that's not a hurricane nor a cat 3 or 4,but EVERY STORM IS DANGEROUS AND HAVE TO BE TAKING WITH RESPECT.
kEEP YOU INFORMED FRIENDS

Glad to see back in the action HUC Surely you're ready to track any moves of Isaac and share it with us So let's focus on this little guy but with "big shoulders" given its huge size.

[msbee]

windguru projecting 44 MPH winds and 21 foot waves for Thursday for St. Maarten

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=51227

[msbee]

Thanks Firebird

windguru projecting 44 MPH winds and 21 foot waves for Thursday for SXM
http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=51227

I am concerned for Gusty and Guadeloupe.. things will be even worse down there

[artist]

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0300 UTC WED AUG 22 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 55.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 55.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 54.8W

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0247.shtml?

[artist]

WTNT34 KNHC 220248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 55.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[BZSTORM]

To all my dear Carib friends projected in the path of Isaac - my best wishes and thoughts are with you: Cycloneye, Gustywind, MsBee, Knotimpaired, and others not mentioned.
While I know each of you will do your best to prepare, at the end of the day, it's usually our primal survival instincts that protect or save us when we follow those undeniable "gut feelings".
Stay safe ppl.

I'd like to add my wishes as well for safe passage for you all with Issac keep safe and as dry as possible, my thoughts are with you as well

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1214 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE NOW BEEN
ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
SPECIFIED AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE
PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.6N...LONGITUDE 55.6W. THIS WAS ABOUT 710 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE NOW BEEN
ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

[weatherwindow]

As you have probably already noted, Luis...it appears that the first major rainband is beginning to impact the easternmost warned Leewards, from north to south, at this time....Rich

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220900
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 57.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF
ISLA SAONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220900
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 57.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF
ISLA SAONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST AND WAS MOVING WEST AT NEAR 18 MPH. BASED ON
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ISAAC IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY...SPREADING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INFORMATION FROM NHC
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY. THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
STILL BRINGS THE CENTER OF A STEADILY INTENSIFYING STORM ABOUT 60
MILES SOUTH OF ST CROIX AROUND 11 AM AST THURSDAY AND THEN ABOUT
60 MILES SOUTH OF PONCE AROUND 8 PM AST THURSDAY. THESE NUMBERS
MAY FLUCTUATE A BIT AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
BUT IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL RECEIVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS...PLEASE SEE BELOW.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...BUILDING SEAS AND AN EXPECTED
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET...WILL RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING COASTAL
LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MANY AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. AS A RESULT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM...AFTER 16Z
ACROSS TISX AND TIST AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO FLYING AREA AFTER 18Z
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR. BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAINS...GUSTY
WINDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL STORM...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINERS
SHOULD SEEK FURTHER DETAILS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 78 / 50 90 90 80
STT 89 80 85 78 / 70 90 100 90

[Gustywind]

Latest weather forecast from Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Isaac continues to progress dangerously close to the Leewards and there's higher chances that this TS should cross Guadeloupe tonight.

Guadeloupe weather vigilance LEVEL ORANGE for the CYCLONE "ISAAC.



Phenomenon (type, name): Tropical storm

Current position (distance): At 06AM, the center was located at 15 ° 5 North and 57 ° 3 West, approximately 450 km East-South-East of Guadeloupe.

Characteristics/ Current Intensity of the cyclone : Tropical storm.

Estimated average maximum wind: 75 km/h, wind gusts: 95 km/h.

Minimum pressure: 1003 hectoPascals.

Current Direction (cap): West (270 °)

Speed: 30 km/h

Forecast (path and intensity):Tropical storm ISAAC will cross the Caribbean arc at the level of theGuadeloupe today late in the day or evening. Thundery showers continues today. They intensify and become more sustainable that night and during the Thursday. Accumulations of rainfall may exceed 100 mm / 24 hours at many points, also well today Wednesday as tomorrow Thursday. Today, the wind blows moderately from the northeast to North but increases temporarily during the squalls. The wind became more sustained after the passage of the center of the storm that night. He switches Est then Southeast and blows around 60 km/h of average with gusts of the order to 80-100 km/h.The sea is gradually widening in day. Average lows are around2 m 50 evening, then 3 m 3 m 50 tomorrow morning Thursday with waves max of 6 m in a swell northeast then East. Cross-wave phenomena make sea chaotic. In Caribbean, hollow of 2 m are expected tomorrow Thursday in a main Southeast swell.

Comments/ Consequences : Heavy rains expected may cause disruption:flooding, overflow of streams and gullies, and to bring troubles for the traffic conditions.

Summary: Strong risk of occurrence of the phenomenon. The expected impact is important.

Validity - duration of the phenomenon: Current cyclonic effects expected till 08 24, 2012.

Next newsletter : today Wednesday 22 August at 1230 AM.

[Gustywind]

These infos are issued from this link: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf (French version for those who are interrested ).