ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Just to inject a little levity.....how many times has South Florida been squarely in a 5-day cone over the last 10 years? Quite a few, if my memory serves me. How many of those actually turned out to be hits 5 days later?

So, I know this was posted completely tongue-in-cheek, but I decided to quickly dig through the archived graphics just for funsies. Assuming I kept count correctly, and it's possible I'm off by one or two because my eyes started to cross a little after staring at so many maps, this is now the 44th time any part of Florida - including the Keys - has been within the cone (I just lumped the 3 and 5 day cones together, because it was easier and my inspiration was a joke ). 19 of the previous 43 times, the storm center was over Floridian soil. Doesn't sound like a good percentage off the bat. But, it's worth noting that most of these "misses" came from the edge of the 5-day cone nicking some part of Florida because by Day 5, the cone is pretty darn big - meanwhile, the actual forecast track wasn't in Florida's direction at all. Some were closer misses - i.e. a storm that passed through the Florida Straits, giving the Keys hurricane conditions, but never actually made a landfall; or a landfalling storm in Louisiana that headed east, only to have its last advisory given with the storm center in the Alabama Panhandle, about 10 miles west of the Florida border. Surely its remnants passed into Florida.

I suppose if I cared more, I would swing through again and definitively see how many times any of the forecast points were over Florida only to see NHC whiff on their track. But qualitatively, it wasn't very many - in the counting on one hand neighborhood. Ike and Irene were the notable misses, but not much beyond that.

And that, my friends, is what comes out of letting yourself be "inspired" by a facetious comment. I don't really recommend it, but if you want to try, I think I left a couple avenues for further research.

edit - also, this is only the 9th season with a public five day cone, so I didn't do 2003 to shave off a little effort.

Can I like this post somehow? lol

[Shuriken]

The only thing certain about the center-point of the five day recurve-scenario forecast cone is that that's where the storm won't be in five days.

[boca]

Im thinking 2 days from now even as early as tomorrow this will be a Bahamas system and not a Florida system the GFS has been shifting east and I think its a trend.

[Hammy]

from recon looks like a secondary low to the SW, possibly a leftover of the monsoon trough

[Shuriken]

from recon looks like a secondary low to the SW, possibly a leftover of the monsoon trough

How far southwest, and southwest of what point?

[chrisjslucia]

Latest Meteo France radar image

[chrisjslucia]

And Barbados Radar

[Shuriken]

That meatball is gettin' spicy.

Tonight's as good as any for a rapid deepening cycle....

[pricetag56]

this could change things if it does occur

[pricetag56]

That meatball is gettin' spicy.

Tonight's as good as any for a rapid deepening cycle....

looks like the instability is increasing as the environment moistens

[Shuriken]

looks like the instability is increasing as the environment moistens

Nah -- it's blowing up everywhere: west-side feeder, center, left-side feeder, simultaneously.

That means it's either diurnal or cap-related, or both.

[Kingarabian]

So far we have 47kts of FL winds and a pressure of 1006.

[meriland23]

I am most concerned about wind speed, seems anywhere from cat 1-3.. is it possible that is could be a 4 or 5?

[RL3AO]

Looks like its not the most organized at the lower levels.

[RL3AO]

Expansion on my latest post.



From VDM - Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the N (357°) from the flight level center

This is in really bad shape. Surface center and MLC are 20 miles apart.

Then someone on chat and one of our pro mets pointed this out from the VDM


I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)

Its warmer outside the center then in the center. There is some serious displacement going on.

[Shuriken]

We've had -80C tops for nearly six hours now.

...I would surmise that a new surface LLC has formed under the convection core, and the suction-draw has taffy-fied the remnants of the old one to the northwest (leaving only the mid-levels for the plane to encounter).

[Dynamic]

Hi, just a quick question. In the water vapor loop bellow, what is that circulation moving from the southwest to the northeast of isaac?

What effect may have on isaac?

Thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[RL3AO]

Hi, just a quick question. In the water vapor loop bellow, what is that circulation moving from the southwest to the northeast of isaac?

What effect may have on isaac?

Thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Its an upper level low. It shouldn't impact it too much. If anything it would probably help with upper level outflow.

[Dynamic]

Hi, just a quick question. In the water vapor loop bellow, what is that circulation moving from the southwest to the northeast of isaac?

What effect may have on isaac?

Thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Its an upper level low. It shouldn't impact it too much. If anything it would probably help with upper level outflow.

Thank You!

[JamesCaneTracker]

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

Small eyewall and a pretty quick pressure drop of 3mb between center fixes!