ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11500
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1361 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:30 am

GFS is still very consistent in developing the outflow channels that I have been mentioning the last couple days.

According to the 00Z GFS, as Isaac gets to the N Shore of Cuba, a poleward outflow channel will be set up by the ULL at 28N 59W.

This occurs at 93 hr

As Isaac approaches Miami, the second outflow channel will be setup by the deep UL trough in the mid GOM.

This occurs at 126 hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Including the fact that there is high OHC in the Bahamas, and if Isaac doesn't get torn up by land interaction, well - you know the rest.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 220000.GIF
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1362 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:32 am

GFS 9 hrs 06z run

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1363 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:35 am

24 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
One Eye
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Ocean Springs, MS

Re: Re:

#1364 Postby One Eye » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:38 am

Bluefrog wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
meriland23 wrote:
forgive me for being a little ..illiterate when it comes to this stuff, but what does this mean?


The model experts at HPC think that the GFS is suffering feedback problems and moves the trough over central US east too quickly and they favor the Euros output.



That is not good for us in the northern GOM

Shhhhhhh! Speak no evil!!! God I hope they're wrong for our sake Bluefrog!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1365 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:39 am

36 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1366 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:43 am

48 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1367 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:45 am

meriland23 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z models still clustered around the SFL area..

Image

but when you look at this sort of thing, you wonder why they would favor the euros lonely track.


They like the euro for what is happening with the trough but for the tropical system they like the gfs due to consistency as you can see on the 5 am disco. Overall the modeling has been very consistent especially at 120h, I wont be using the typical error rate at 5 days for this system. The models are on top of the same idea with this system and have been now for a couple of days with the turn. I bet we get special soundings from the NWS offices and combined with the g4 data they are really going to be able to nail it on a 72h forecast. This could turn out to be a very easy forecast on Friday except for intensity but intensity is rarely easy. The most interesting thing will be what happens after cuba and how much it can recover then who gets it in florida then how dramatic of a turn it is. If I were a city with a big convention center I would be on the phone pronto trying to land that bizness.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1368 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:47 am

60 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1369 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:48 am

06z GFS trending west thru 60 hours
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1370 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:51 am

tracking slightly faster, more west and very slightly south of the 00z run
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1371 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:52 am

72 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
StrongWind
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:02 pm
Location: Deerfield Beach, FL

Re: Re:

#1372 Postby StrongWind » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:53 am

Kingarabian wrote:
pricetag56 wrote:So what will the nhc do now about the future track i wonder???

They'll probably split the differences.

They'll probably keep the bullseye on Fla a bit longer because of the much shorter time to prepare.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1373 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:55 am

84 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1374 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:00 am

96 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#1375 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:04 am

108 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1376 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:06 am

06z GFS still west of 00z thru 120 hours
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re:

#1377 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:08 am

[quote="meriland23"]120 hr (still going west?)

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

#1378 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:12 am

Looks like this run of the GFS is going to be a West Coast rider...still same general idea. Storm approaching Southern tip of peninsula. The difference between West Coast, spine, or East Coast is all about angle of attack from the South.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1379 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:12 am

132 hr heading to E gulf

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1380 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:13 am

06z GFS west shift more pronounced thru 138 hours. Looks like it's going into the Gulf
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests