ATL: ISAAC - Models

[meriland23]

144 hr



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[meriland23]

156 hr


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[bamajammer4eva]

This looks like the furthest west the GFS has been in a while but don't most consider the 06z and 18z runs booloney??

[SouthFLTropics]

This is the typical windshield wiper affect you get from the models between runs. I wouldn't buy in that the GFS is moving towards the EURO just yet. If I was placing my bet I'd guess that the 12z will move back East and then 18z back West and so on. I've seen the models do this many times in the past and they are basically honing in on some point in the middle. If I had to make a guess right now I would say the best track will be right up the spine of the state...which as of the 5:00AM update appears what the NHC is going with as well.

SFT

[meriland23]

168 hr



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[hurricanetrack]

So check this out, looking at the 6Z GFS coming in, I looked at the 200mb fields and low and behold, Isaac reaches up to 200mb just west of FL:

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/stat ... 01/photo/1

That is not something you see everyday.... And notice that it is embedded smack in the middle of a large anticyclone.

[SeminoleWind]

This is the typical windshield wiper affect you get from the models between runs. I wouldn't buy in that the GFS is moving towards the EURO just yet. If I was placing my bet I'd guess that the 12z will move back East and then 18z back West and so on. I've seen the models do this many times in the past and they are basically honing in on somepoint in the middle. If I had to make a guess right now I would say the best track will be right up the spine of the state...which as of the 5:00AM update appears what the NHC is going with as well.

SFT

Yeah im not buying this to much yet either gonna have a very hard time getting to far west

[SouthFLTropics]

So check this out, looking at the 6Z GFS coming in, I looked at the 200mb fields and low and behold, Isaac reaches up to 200mb just west of FL:

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/stat ... 01/photo/1

That is not something you see everyday.... And notice that it is embedded smack in the middle of a large anticyclone.

What is your feeling on this westward shift at 06z by the GFS Mark?

SFT

[jlauderdal]

This is the typical windshield wiper affect you get from the models between runs. I wouldn't buy in that the GFS is moving towards the EURO just yet. If I was placing my bet I'd guess that the 12z will move back East and then 18z back West and so on. I've seen the models do this many times in the past and they are basically honing in on somepoint in the middle. If I had to make a guess right now I would say the best track will be right up the spine of the state...which as of the 5:00AM update appears what the NHC is going with as well.

SFT

Yeah im not buying this to much yet either gonna have a very hard time getting to far west

that run is well within the error rate this far out, it actually didnt move that far west, florida is long and narrow so a little movement east-west makes a huge difference though

[JPmia]

Add in the rarity of a major going up through the Big Bend area of the state.. could happen, quite rare to see.

[meriland23]

180 hr



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[SouthFLTropics]

That is a MAJOR hurricane in the big bend area.

[meriland23]

192 hr (crossing east into the atlantic?)



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[JPmia]

That new track makes me wonder what it is seeing that is different versus the 00z run.. it's 250 miles or so west of the last run

[meriland23]

I don't see how it could maintain strength if it goes completely over cuba, makes no sense,,,

[meriland23]

204 hr s



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[northjaxpro]

Oh, my. The 6z GFS run looks downright frightening showing a potential major tropical cyclone moving up the west coast of the Florida peninsula. My goodness, I sincerely hope that doesn't pan out like this run is showing. Yeah, we are seeing the windshield wiper effect going on with the model. We will see this shift a little east and back a little west as the GFs is honing in on a landfall point. Either way, it is looking omnious for the peninsula currently.
_________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[JPmia]

Well go read the NHC discussion .. once it finally makes out over water the models predict very favorable conditions.. outflow channels, waters near 88 degrees, etc

[northjaxpro]

Well go read the NHC discussion .. once it finally makes out over water the models predict very favorable conditions.. outflow channels, waters near 88 degrees, etc

I am well aware of that JPmia. That is my underlying message. I don't want this system to get into the Gulf of Mexico to intensify in those bathwaters out there.

[meriland23]

978 mb is really not that significant intensity wise.. that is a cat 1..I know GFS is not a reliable intensity scale, but it amounts to something