ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical

[rainstorm]

models dont seem too impressed but i have to think this one wont head out to sea with that huge high forming in the NW atlantic

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So, we have Tropical Depression Ten!

[Extratropical94]

Maybe, maybe not yet.
It has been re-renumbered shortly thereafter.
I was wondering why they put 'LO' along with 'TEN' and didn't use 'TD'.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 962012.ren

[Gustywind]

22/1200 UTC 12.2N 35.7W T2.0/2.0 96L
22/0545 UTC 11.8N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 NAME

[rainstorm]

JB:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

new tropical cyclone developing in atlantic should have path north of Isaac.Like Isaac early recurve not a lock

i agree. the more west isaac goes the more west this one will go.

[San Felipe II]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102012
AL, 10, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 114N, 215W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 227W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2012082006, , BEST, 0, 105N, 239W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 249W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2012082018, , BEST, 0, 102N, 262W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2012082100, , BEST, 0, 102N, 274W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2012082106, , BEST, 0, 102N, 288W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082112, , BEST, 0, 103N, 303W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 317W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082200, , BEST, 0, 109N, 329W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082206, , BEST, 0, 115N, 343W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 250, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 10, 2012082212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 357W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Gustywind]

From NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... ROD=1km_bw



20120822.1315.96LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-122N-357W

[Extratropical94]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
[...]

Yeah, that was the first one issued at 1225Z,
then they changed it back at 1241Z (see my previous post) and now they seem to have renewed/updated the renumber 96->10 file (at 1350Z):

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221350
[...]

So currently, we are on the TD 10 side, still no "TD" designation in the AL10 BT file though (http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest)

[CrazyC83]

This is farther south of Isaac - that makes it even less likely to recurve? Could this just go straight across the Caribbean like Ernesto?

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Track will be interesting, if it moves faster than expected and Issac ends up further west this ssytem may end up playing a small part in the eventual track.

I suspect this will be a hurricane eventually down the line, maybe a Bermuda risk?

[WeatherGuesser]

At least for the time being, it looks like they're keeping the track off-shore.

[Chickenzilla]

The convection is currently not very deep.

[kristina]

Is there something out there that will steer this storm away from the East Coast(VA, NC) and out to the open water, or is the track going to stay straight to land?

[brunota2003]

Kristina: Welcome to S2K! Nice display pic, that was an interesting 13th birthday for me (the hurricane).

On to your question: right now it is too far out to know for sure, even the 5 day point is low confidence, because some models want to take TD 10 further north than the current forecast, while others want to go further south...so right now it is a wait and see.

[kristina]

Thank you. Just curiosity kicken in... I have been following this site since Isabel and every season after and just decided to join. Are house was the only one without damage to it in the area when she hit us...Luck I suppose

[brunota2003]

I was on the western side of the eye, the bottom river, I lived right at the bottom point of the "V" it makes.

Yeah, once 10 reaches the 3 or 4 day point, we should know a lot more! There should be a model thread (floating around somewhere), usually images from the runs are posted in there.

[CrazyC83]

20120822 1800 13.0 36.6 T2.0/2.0 10L NONAME

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking fairly disorganized - cloudtops are warming and there is a slightly elongated appearance from north to south. It looked much better today, when it formed into a depression.