ATL: ISAAC - Models

[KWT]

Up the SW florida coastline then just back out into the Gulf by 144hrs, not sure how much strengthening would happen mind you from that sort of position, especially as the core probably would still be a mess from Haiti/Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

150 hours looks like some ridging building back in to the north west of it. going to stall maybe.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +156



Inland.. and stalled through +165 so far

[Aric Dunn]

156 big bend landfall with a good ridge building east the trof is flat may cross the state to the east back over the atlantic this run. if it were too much slower than this run it would likely get trapped.

[KWT]

So if you could make a track with the least amount of water possible, that run from the 12z GFS would be pretty close to what you'd expect. It'd never be a hurricane with that track...maybe thats for the best.

Sorta similar to Fay.

[Stormlover2012]

Rem gfs isn't that good with how strong a trough and high pressure is

[Aric Dunn]

10 hours after landfall very little motion to the ene trof may leave it behind. it is far out there though but interesting .

[Jevo]

So the 12z GFS shows an initial CONUS landfall in the FL Keys / SW Florida putting the Dirt over Metro Dade/Broward and causing mayhem up the entire West coast of the state until pushing through into the big bend

[petit_bois]

when does the euro start?

[wxman76]

12z GFS is interesting for sure. The big thing i take from it is it remains South and West of NHC. I doubt this run is right either but the trend is west. Yeah that track doesn't favor rapid deepening but if the 18z and 00z keep trending west, a difference of another 50-75 miles west puts him over the loop current, whole nother ball game.

[Bocadude85]

So if you could make a track with the least amount of water possible, that run from the 12z GFS would be pretty close to what you'd expect. It'd never be a hurricane with that track...maybe thats for the best.

Sorta similar to Fay.

In this run though the GFS just has the center skimming the north coast of Cuba.. could just as easily be off the coast of Cuba.. also this run shows landfall on the Haiti penisula instead of crossing Dominican Republic before hitting Haiti.

[Aric Dunn]

12z nogaps has shift quite a bit to the left.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

compared to the 00z which had outerbanks landfall.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

so the right outlier has come into relative agreement

[meriland23]

this will have everything to do wtih intensity.. if it stays weak, wants to go west more obviously. So far according to NHC, better organized slightly, but not strengthening..

[KWT]

Worth noting that Issac is probably already a touch north of the GFS position at 24hrs time, so probably needs a relocation for the GFS solution to be correct.

I know such small difference don't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but such errors are the difference between a hurricane and a TD/weak TS in this case...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

after tomorrow's G flight data gets ingested tomorrow night, the models will have a much firmer grasp on the surrounding atmosphere/strength of the ridge to produce a real good picture of Isaac's future.

[wxman76]

Remember there is a time lag between strengthening and actual wind increase at the surface. it takes time and convection to mix those higher winds down to the surface.

[ronjon]

So if you could make a track with the least amount of water possible, that run from the 12z GFS would be pretty close to what you'd expect. It'd never be a hurricane with that track...maybe thats for the best.

Sorta similar to Fay.

KWT - You need to look at the 850 mb vort plot - based on that
It doesn't spend that much time over land. Think it will still be a hurricane.
There wouldn't be much weakening over the flat swampy terrain of SW
Florida either. Issac doesn't turn north till he's past 28N so he'll be offshore
of the west coast of FL.

[meriland23]

Worth noting that Issac is probably already a touch north of the GFS position at 24hrs time, so probably needs a relocation for the GFS solution to be correct.

I know such small difference don't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but such errors are the difference between a hurricane and a TD/weak TS in this case...

interesting, so if and say the GFS corrected this, would that lead the system more so into the gulf or atlantic?

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS is interesting for sure. The big thing i take from it is it remains South and West of NHC. I doubt this run is right either but the trend is west. Yeah that track doesn't favor rapid deepening but if the 18z and 00z keep trending west, a difference of another 50-75 miles west puts him over the loop current, whole nother ball game.

What run are you looking at? The 12z GFS is dead on with the current NHC thinking.. and has shifted north and east from the 6z run

[deltadog03]

I still think a track between the euro and gfs is a pretty good bet. One things for sure, Isaac will not strengthen too much over the next day or 2.