Barbara, that is a very interesting sign there
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EDGE WEST DURING THE WEEKEND AS A LOW MOVES TOWARD 58 WEST AND
SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN LOBE WILL MOVE OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE JUST WEST OF FLORIDA DURING THE REST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WILL PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE
TURNING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. CURRENTLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK MOVES
ISAAC THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX AND
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 10 HAS FORMED AND WAS AT
13.1 NORTH AND 37.4 WEST AS OF 5 PM AST. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH
LATE ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DEPICTED AS PASSING
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS PASSED
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AS FAR AS CATANO AS OF 4:30 PM AST. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS RECORDED WERE 37 MPH IN SAN JUAN AND 38 MPH
IN SAINT CROIX. THIS IS THE LEADING BAND AHEAD OF ISAAC. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND THAT ISAAC IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED SO
THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS PAUSED ON INCREASING ITS INTENSITY. IT
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 4 PM. SO FAR WINDS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE. NEVERTHELESS ALL
FORECASTS CURRENTLY POINT TO INTENSIFICATION. THE TRACK HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND SO WE ARE STILL EXPECTING IT TO
PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX BY 50 TO 80 MILES ON
THURSDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS AT A
MINIMUM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MOST LIKELY
IN SAINT CROIX AND THE SOUTH COAST AND CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ONCE OUT OF
THE AREA A TRAIN OF MOISTURE WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS KEEPING RAIN...SOMETIMES
HEAVY...IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
FOLLOWS THIS TRAIN OF MOISTURE WITH A LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES
OVER THE ISLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO BE SURE OF THE TRACK OR INTENSITY OF THIS LOW. ALL THAT
ASIDE HOWEVER CURRENT MODELS ARE PERSISTENTLY WET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SOMEWHAT WET AFTERWARD MAKING FLOODS ALL BUT
INEVITABLE IN MANY PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS...TONIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC 23/10Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WERE CURRENTLY RUNNING UP TO 8 FEET JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...4 TO 5 FEET SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX AND
NEAR SAN JUAN AND A 2 TO 3 FEET SOUTH OF PONCE AND AROUND
MAYAGUEZ. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 19 FEET BY
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES BEING IN THE SHADOW OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE HIGHEST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT SEAS
WILL HAVE FALLEN TO LESS THAN 10 FEET EVERYWHERE AND WILL FALL TO
LESS THAN 7 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...GENERAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH SPOTS EXCEEDING 4 TO 8 INCHES
WHERE TERRAIN AND LOCAL STORM BANDS ARE FAVORABLE TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN PUERTO RICO AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT 6 PM AST
AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLOODING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
BEYOND THIS. PREPARATION SHOULD BE MADE TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 83 78 84 / 100 100 90 70
STT 80 83 78 81 / 90 80 80 90
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