ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

recon found a little lower pressure about 1005.

[Blown Away]

recon found a little lower pressure about 1005.

Aric, do you agree with 15.8N at 2pm? Seems above 16N??

[RachelAnna]

I know alot of members here truly want this storm, even if they wouldn't admit it. Personally however, any track Isaac could take to alleviate the drought in the middle u.s would be huge. Just something to consider.

Well, I can tell you - with certainty - that it isn't anyone who went through Ike. I can also tell you with the same degree of certainty that those same people are watching this track with a sinking feeling in their stomachs, because it is so similar to the one he took 4 years ago.



NOTE: The image posted in this reply is from 2008 and Hurricane Ike, NOT the current TS Isaac.

This is the image that came to mind just last night for me. Not probable, but anything is possible and Ike memories are still pretty fresh!

[Senobia]

Well, I can tell you - with certainty - that it isn't anyone who went through Ike. I can also tell you with the same degree of certainty that those same people are watching this track with a sinking feeling in their stomachs, because it is so similar to the one he took 4 years ago.

That would be me. Seeing that track of Ike that you posted was a reminder of just what can happen. I remember going away for the weekend and Ike was supposed to go east of Florida, or maybe hit Florida. Came back after the weekend and all of a sudden Ike is heading for my house. Not a good feeling.

If the Euro is still sending Isaac to the GOM, that's enough to get me to pay attention. I hope it's nothing more than a weak tropical storm, wherever it hits.

Same scenario as with Ike. Like Isaac is doing now, Ike rode a ridge - waiting for a break that allowed a northerly turn. He went farther and farther west because the ridge didn't budge and when he did turn north, it was toward Texas - not Florida as had been anticipated.

Bleh! Deja vu.

[Aric Dunn]

recon found a little lower pressure about 1005.

Aric, do you agree with 15.8N at 2pm? Seems above 16N??

recon found it at exactly..

16.0667N 60.3667W

[cycloneye]

There is the center.

[Shuriken]

My read on the morning's affairs is that Issac's center is in the process of reforming farther south (to along 15N) under the axis of heaviest updrafting.

[KWT]

Well if you compare the latest NHC and the current recon position, you get a 280 motion. It maybe a little more or less than that as recon doesn't normally totally nail the center on the first pass through in a TS, but thats a decent general motion and its what the NHC goes with.

[BatzVI]

PR NWS Radar...St. Thomas getting a heavy downpour

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[chrisjslucia]

There is the center.

Well, it is a relief to know we are reaching arrival in the Islands, as it has been raining non stop here since late last night and with winds from the West since early morning - for a couple of hours maybe but getting on for eight hours now. Given we are at 14.1 N, it is an indication just how far those rain bands stretch out beyond the centre. Again, wind intensity is never the only issue - size and rainfall are often as critical.
So much for my 60th birthday drink!!

[wxman57]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical storm Isaac is looking better this afternoon. I believe Isaac is getting into a no shear environment. The storm should begin to devlop now.

I agree that it looks better than a tropical wave, but not better than it has. So far, recon hasn't been able to confirm that it's still a TS. Winds are below TS strength and the center is not very well-defined.

Plane found one center at 16.1N/60.4W and a second near 15.3N/59.7W.

[uhvjaguars22]

correct me if im wrong but that means further and further west but only time will tell... Wxman?

[Hurricaneman]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical storm Isaac is looking better this afternoon. I believe Isaac is getting into a no shear environment. The storm should begin to devlop now.

I agree that it looks better than a tropical wave, but not better than it has. So far, recon hasn't been able to confirm that it's still a TS. Winds are below TS strength and the center is not very well-defined.

Plane found one center at 16.1N/60.4W and a second near 15.3N/59.7W.

Could that be a relocation in progress or am I just looking too much into it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[adam0983]

Have storms ever developed moving at 21 mph?

[ozonepete]

Have storms ever developed moving at 21 mph?

Many times.

[HurricaneBrain]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical storm Isaac is looking better this afternoon. I believe Isaac is getting into a no shear environment. The storm should begin to devlop now.

I agree that it looks better than a tropical wave, but not better than it has. So far, recon hasn't been able to confirm that it's still a TS. Winds are below TS strength and the center is not very well-defined.

Plane found one center at 16.1N/60.4W and a second near 15.3N/59.7W.

And the fact that this storm/depression is moving at 21 mph doesn't help the fact that Isaac is developing right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical storm Isaac is looking better this afternoon. I believe Isaac is getting into a no shear environment. The storm should begin to devlop now.

I agree that it looks better than a tropical wave, but not better than it has. So far, recon hasn't been able to confirm that it's still a TS. Winds are below TS strength and the center is not very well-defined.

Plane found one center at 16.1N/60.4W and a second near 15.3N/59.7W.

Could that be a relocation in progress or am I just looking too much into it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yeah I said earlier there is likely a couple vorts spinning around. though the one to south is very small a weak

[Bocadude85]

Any chance this opens up into a wave and doesnt bother anyone other then the Leewards?

[ozonepete]

Any chance this opens up into a wave and doesnt bother anyone other then the Leewards?

None of the best models are forecasting that.

[adam0983]

Wow what happened to this storm. It looks like Euro might win.