ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

168 slowly moving due north. towards northern gulf coast.

Aric does it look to be intensifying or just holding its own?

[deltadog03]

Hello panhandle....hello strengthening.....



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[SunnyThoughts]

nevermind, I guess delta just answered my question...arggggg

[Weatherfreak000]

168 slowly moving due north. towards northern gulf coast.

I see more NW to NNW.

[JPmia]

lets step back... 00z had it going through the channel 12z now has it almost crossing central cuba east of Havana at least. . that is a significant east shift.

yeah i think the models are coming into better alignment.. i think we could see even more agreement when we get both the weather station 6 hourly balloon data from across the caribbean and SE and then the G-IV mission data.

[ROCK]

Just FYI...the Allen EURO site is not updating...thats why you see these other not so colorful model frames....thank you Delta Dog for grabbing them from another site....

[HurricaneBrain]

Looks like NOLA hit on this run.

[Aric Dunn]

Just FYI...the Allen EURO site is not updating...thats why you see these other not so colorful model frames....thank you Delta Dog for grabbing them from another site....

another view. turned north on that image.

[deltadog03]

Just FYI...the Allen EURO site is not updating...thats why you see these other not so colorful model frames....thank you Delta Dog for grabbing them from another site....

NP....now THIS run of the euro seems to be much more realistic....I really think we have pretty good agreement with models....

[Kingarabian]

Well that's two runs where the Euro shows a NOLA hit.

[JPmia]

and honestly.. since the CMC, GFDL and HWRF are showing a east coast landfall I am feeling much better about the trend west since those models are so right biased most of the time lately.

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[Stormlover2012]

That's what like 7 days out we still have a lot of time, these storms are hard to track.

[uhvjaguars22]

Wouldnt be suprised if one of these models moves all the way to texas and really get everyone excited. probably might happen

just an opinion not forecast

[meriland23]

192 hr (963 mb?! holy canolli ravioli!)


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[duris]

That's what like 7 days out we still have a lot of time

And, of course, seven days from now is 8/29. Would be a heckuva anniversary. I'll pass.

[Aric Dunn]

192 bombs out to cat 3

[adam0983]

This is Madness we have gone from a Florida landfall to Texas now. Wow

[petit_bois]

ouch! that's gotta hurt!

[SunnyThoughts]

Hard to tell, looks to be Miss/Ala border..maybe Miss/La border covering so much area hard to tell.

[Weatherboy1]

With all due respect to the euro, I think the subtle shift to the E from the WEST outlier model ... combined with the clear shift W for the EAST outlier models, suggests this is a far eastern Gulf or South FL threat. What is important (in my opinion) isn't the exact path of any given model. It's the trend. GFS, GFDL, and UKMET have always been relatively middle of the road, CMC and NOGAPS east ans EURO west. They are all more or less converging toward a path up the FL peninsula or just offshore of the west coast. I would be very surprised ... barring some major change in the modelling overnight ... if Isaac ever makes it west of the FL panhandle and am much more on board with the idea of an initial landfall in the Keys/Everglades. Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!