ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon has flown through the NW, SE and now NE quads with nothing near TS force winds found (surface). I doubt there are any in the SW quad where the weaker winds are indicated by island obs. Isaac appears to be a TD, though the NHC would never downgrade a storm approaching land. Of course, it's possible that there may be an isolated patch of TS winds somewhere in the NE quadrant, which would be the case in just about any area of squalls in the tropics.

Recon just found numerous 43 knot flight level winds, which would normally support a TS.

[KWT]

Next recon pass through that area to the SE of the 'center; is going to ber interesting, because whilst there was a wind shift, there was no real pressure drop. We want to see a 2nd pressure drop to see if its a strengthening relocating low or whether it just one of several eddies.

[cycloneye]

Yeah a center relocationm has always been possible, to be fair the northern vortex has done well for a while considering its been battered by shear.

IF it is relocating, thats going to throw a HUGE spanner in the works when it comes to track, it makes the missing Hispaniola solution FAR more likely...

no it shouldn't do much. remember the two are going to be rotatin around each other and the southern vort where it is will rotate north westerly it should even its selft out if the center reforming is what indeed is happening

That's exactly what I see. The southern center is moving northwest and strengthening while the northern one is moving west to southwest and dissipating. The net result will be little, probably .1 to .3 south of where it was earlier today.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree pete. Recon went by the old circulation that was at 16.1, pressures has risen to 1007mb and no windshift either this time. This shows that the old circulation has died and the new one is taking over more SE.Loads of westerlies found earlier from that circulation and lowering pressures to about 1005mb.

[bwjnj]

just curious but i seem to see two different spins one on the east side of the islands and one on the west side of the islands, are those the two areas that your talking about or am i seeing things

[bbadon]

Off topic (Kinda) Meanwhile while eyes are focused on Issac take a peak at NW Gulf. If something were to spark how would it affect future stearing of Issac?

[KWT]

Recon has flown through the NW, SE and now NE quads with nothing near TS force winds found (surface). I doubt there are any in the SW quad where the weaker winds are indicated by island obs. Isaac appears to be a TD, though the NHC would never downgrade a storm approaching land. Of course, it's possible that there may be an isolated patch of TS winds somewhere in the NE quadrant, which would be the case in just about any area of squalls in the tropics.

Recon just found numerous 43 knot flight level winds, which would normally support a TS.

Yes there probably is just enough to suggest 35kts still, whether or not its a TD/TS isn't going to make a huge difference now to the LA, should be a wet old day and night coming up and fairly gusty.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not as good looking as a few hours ago but still not to bad looking and trying to wrap back up again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

yeah definitely taking its time reorganizing. Of note though, is the improvement in outflow. Its starting to wall off the dry air as the shear begins to subside. I think we're past the low point of its organizational issues now, although improvement is going to take quite a while and I am thinking that if this does hit Hispaniola, its chances of doing so as a hurricane are slightly decreasing.

[cycloneye]

ATCF has not released the 18z Best Track waiting for more data from recon.

[wxman57]

Recon has flown through the NW, SE and now NE quads with nothing near TS force winds found (surface). I doubt there are any in the SW quad where the weaker winds are indicated by island obs. Isaac appears to be a TD, though the NHC would never downgrade a storm approaching land. Of course, it's possible that there may be an isolated patch of TS winds somewhere in the NE quadrant, which would be the case in just about any area of squalls in the tropics.

Recon just found numerous 43 knot flight level winds, which would normally support a TS.

Nothing above 30kts SFMR, though. Without any convection those 40-43kt winds aren't likely transferring down to the surface well. Isaac's intensity is likely in the 30-35kt range. Perhaps a TS by the skin of its teeth (if it has teeth).

[ozonepete]

just curious but i seem to see two different spins one on the east side of the islands and one on the west side of the islands, are those the two areas that your talking about or am i seeing things

You're seeing the right things. The low level spin you see on the west side is (was) the more northern vortex which has pretty much dissipated. The newly forming center that appears to be taking over is the one on the eastern side of the islands.

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to come together with great outflow:

[ozonepete]

ATCF has not released the 18z Best Track waiting for more data from recon.

Yes, Luis. I would definitely want to hold off now with all of this re-consolidation going on. Still think the center is in that process for another few hours. Unfortunately that messes up the 5PM package.

[Gustywind]

INFORMATION PRACTICES

Closure of the Pole Caribbean airport at 5 p.m.

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183695.php

GUADELOUPE

On prefectoral decision, the Pole Caribbean airport will close at 5 p.m. just after take-off from the Corsair (CRL 927) flight to Paris. Need that CCIIG, infrastructure manager, wait the prefectural authority of reopening to resume activities.

[Sanibel]

You're looking at something that is ready to snap together once it gets clear of that Atlantic dry air intrusion on the NE quad (IMO).



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeminoleWind]

looking at the above satellite image, Isaac looks like its ready to do some strengthening in the hours ahead tonight and is really trying to come together.
JMO

[cycloneye]

ATCF has not released the 18z Best Track waiting for more data from recon.

Yes, Luis. I would definitely want to hold off now with all of this re-consolidation going on. Still think the center is in that process for another few hours. Unfortunately that messes up the 5PM package.

You see it at 15.2n 59.2w?

[KWT]

Well recon's next pass should go through the center that was further north, we'll see what it shows this time round and whether its weaker than it was before.

Good circulation and inflow, just needs that shear and dry air to ease off a touch.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Dry air is dominating this storm. Hope it continues, dont want this thing blowing up in this area.

[Aric Dunn]

Well recon's next pass should go through the center that was further north, we'll see what it shows this time round and whether its weaker than it was before.

Good circulation and inflow, just needs that shear and dry air to ease off a touch.

this will be the last pass they have through the northern one as it is about to pass over the island.

[KWT]

Well recon's next pass should go through the center that was further north, we'll see what it shows this time round and whether its weaker than it was before.

Good circulation and inflow, just needs that shear and dry air to ease off a touch.

this will be the last pass they have through the northern one as it is about to pass over the island.

Bit of a shame really, I wonder whether they will go through the southern system from now on then?