ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I wonder how many pages we can get out of this storm here.
When a storm is moved to the archives, all the sub-topics like models, discussion and stuff are merged, right?

Yes,that is what we do after they are post tropical and are moved to the archieves forum. The 2007 Dean thread holds the record with 676 pages.

[Weatherfreak000]

What are you guys seeing right now? I see a storm that has been weakening considerably. Center relocation also seems possible which will keep it south and west. This may be a huge win for the EURO.

[Aric Dunn]

Well recon's next pass should go through the center that was further north, we'll see what it shows this time round and whether its weaker than it was before.

Good circulation and inflow, just needs that shear and dry air to ease off a touch.

this will be the last pass they have through the northern one as it is about to pass over the island.

Bit of a shame really, I wonder whether they will go through the southern system from now on then?

I imagine they will go take a look regardless.

[Aric Dunn]

just as I thought the northern circ is dropping wsw as it rotates around the other and vice versa per recon . they should go to the other just to confirm. although the northern vort still has a good hold. going to take some time.

[BatzVI]

Aric...if this system is relocating south, and as others have mentioned a "weakness" in the ridge, where would that weakness be and could that pull the storm more north before it actually gets past our area?

[ozonepete]

ATCF has not released the 18z Best Track waiting for more data from recon.

Yes, Luis. I would definitely want to hold off now with all of this re-consolidation going on. Still think the center is in that process for another few hours. Unfortunately that messes up the 5PM package.

You see it at 15.2n 59.2w?

Really close to you. I have it at 15.5N 59.5W.

[sammy126]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/52 ... 9atla.jpg/
is this model reliable?

[KWT]

I wonder how many pages we can get out of this storm here.
When a storm is moved to the archives, all the sub-topics like models, discussion and stuff are merged, right?

Yes,that is what we do after they are post tropical and are moved to the archieves forum. The 2007 Dean thread holds the record with 676 pages.

Ike would hold the record, its discussion thread alone comes to aobut 670 pages, and Ike has 208 pages for models, 70 or so for recon, etc. Fay comes a close 2nd, Irene last year was the biggest since 2008.

Anyway recon not finding any wind shift at all this time round with that northern vortex, unless as Aric has said its dropped SW.

System is a MESS at the surface despite not looking too bad in terms of convection.

[ozonepete]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/528/plotsystemmodelsnt9atla.jpg/
is this model reliable?

It's showing multiple models and they are reliable ones, yes. well except that the NOGAPS and CMC are not oftewn as good as the others. But that's a pretty good consensus for a scenario like this. They always diverge at the farthest out point.

[Gustywind]

Given the latest infos from the authorities... Guadeloupe should pass in RED level at 3PM.

WEATHER

Probable passage in red vigilance in the afternoon

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php

11 AM, the center was located about 230 km East-South-East of Guadeloupe. Tropical storm ISAAC will cross tonight the Antillean arc, the center being planned to spend on Guadeloupe to 8 pm, which means that our islands will see the poor conditions associated with this storm. Weather France announced a probable passage in red vigilance during the afternoon.

WEATHER

We are red vigilance since 3: 00 pm

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012

GUADELOUPE
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php



At 2PM center was located approximately 155 km East-South-East of Guadeloupe. Tropical storm ISAAC will cross tonight the Antillean arc, the centre being planned to spend on Guadeloupe to 8 pml, which means that our islands will see the poor conditions associated with this storm.

[cycloneye]

I wonder how many pages we can get out of this storm here.
When a storm is moved to the archives, all the sub-topics like models, discussion and stuff are merged, right?

Yes,that is what we do after they are post tropical and are moved to the archieves forum. The 2007 Dean thread holds the record with 676 pages.

Ike would hold the record, its discussion thread alone comes to aobut 670 pages, and Ike has 208 pages for models, 70 or so for recon, etc. Fay comes a close 2nd, Irene last year was the biggest since 2008.

Anyway recon not finding any wind shift at all this time round with that northern vortex, unless as Aric has said its dropped SW.

System is a MESS at the surface despite not looking too bad in terms of convection.

You are right,is Ike.

[Sanibel]

System is a MESS at the surface despite not looking too bad in terms of convection.

You couldn't get that level of robust convection and curvature with a system that was fatally flawed IMO. Isaac is keeping its energy out in its wings until it gets the conditions to pull it all in, in my totally non-professional internet storm watcher opinion.

[jlauderdal]

Given the latest infos from the authorities... Guadeloupe should pass in RED level at 3PM.

WEATHER

Probable passage in red vigilance in the afternoon

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php

11 AM, the center was located about 230 km East-South-East of Guadeloupe. Tropical storm ISAAC will cross tonight the Antillean arc, the center being planned to spend on Guadeloupe to 8 pm, which means that our islands will see the poor conditions associated with this storm. Weather France announced a probable passage in red vigilance during the afternoon.

WEATHER

We are red vigilance since 3: 00 pm

franceantilles.fr 22.08.2012

GUADELOUPE
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 183571.php



At 2PM center was located approximately 155 km East-South-East of Guadeloupe. Tropical storm ISAAC will cross tonight the Antillean arc, the centre being planned to spend on Guadeloupe to 8 pml, which means that our islands will see the poor conditions associated with this storm.

please dont use formatting on your posts..the valuable information you post stands on its own

[ConvergenceZone]

Any chance this opens up into a wave and doesnt bother anyone other then the Leewards?

Yes, that's always a good possibility that it could open to a wave and just be a
rain event. All one has to do is look back in history to verify that possibility.
There have been plenty of storms that couldn't get going that opened back into waves.

[TwisterFanatic]

I don't see this 'coming together'. Dry air is being sucked in from the west, and the heaviest convection is displaced from the center.


JMO

[psyclone]

System is a MESS at the surface despite not looking too bad in terms of convection.

You couldn't get that level of robust convection and curvature with a system that was fatally flawed IMO. Isaac is keeping its energy out in its wings until it gets the conditions to pull it all in, in my totally non-professional internet storm watcher opinion.

i agree. i think it's going to blossom at some point it's just taking longer than i expected. a period of rapid intensification at some point wouldn't be surprising if it can find a favorable environment.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

System is a MESS at the surface despite not looking too bad in terms of convection.

You couldn't get that level of robust convection and curvature with a system that was fatally flawed IMO. Isaac is keeping its energy out in its wings until it gets the conditions to pull it all in, in my totally non-professional internet storm watcher opinion.

For sure, its not going to die with that amount of convection that its producing, its just struggling with dry air a touch on the northern side and getting sheared still by that ULL that dropped SW earlier today from Issac's NE.

Cycloneye, I think we have a fairly reasonable chance of beating that record, esp IF the ECM is right. ATM we are ahead of Irene at this stage which ended up getting about 710 pages roughly. Cool aside!

[SeminoleWind]

I don't see this 'coming together'. Dry air is being sucked in from the west, and the heaviest convection is displaced from the center.


JMO

I know its water vapor but this seams to be holding convection pretty nicely and firing some new stuff just east of the center.
JMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think the NHC will drop it from a TS on the next advisory, but
I do think they will once again lower the forecasted strength. Perhaps
keeping it from mid end to high end tropical storm at best. That seems
to be the trend as well....

[Jevo]

NCEP asking for balloon launches every 6 hours starting Thursday from NWS WFOs in FL, GA, MS, & AL to help models with Isaac

http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/