ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Portastorm]

Yes, the G-IV flight is tomorrow. Hopefully the sampled data will be ingested into the 0z runs tomorrow night.

[Weatherfreak000]

we have some time to wait.....I got a 18Z NOGAPS I could give you and maybe the 18Z NAM.... those are always helpful....


Look at those ensembles...GFS caving into the EURO at 0Z? I am sniffing it!!

Its only a matter of time reminds me of Ike

[Jevo]

18z GFDL +102

[KWT]

GFDL is indeed a little further right, then again the GFDL is nearly always on the right side of the model grouping.

[Dean4Storms]

If the GFDL is showing up the east coast then count on the west coast or Gulf, it has been pretty pitiful this year.

[Dean4Storms]

18z HWRF a bend back to the west in the SE Gulf at the end of the run.......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[caneman]

Have to definitely give credence to the Euro right now as it is taking awhile to organize plus any land interaction will keep it weak.

[SunnyThoughts]

18z HWRF a bend back to the west in the SE Gulf at the end of the run.......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

hmmm correct me if I"m wrong...but I think that is a first for the HWRF to bend back west like that.

[RL3AO]

Lets stop with the "Well this model is CLEARLY wrong. Isaac is going to go _______". "Or <insert model> has to be right because all the others suck"

Not sure if you've guys noticed but this doesn't even have a well defined center. Its all over the place at the moment.

[Weatherfreak000]

18z HWRF a bend back to the west in the SE Gulf at the end of the run.......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

hmmm correct me if I"m wrong...but I think that is a first for the HWRF to bend back west like that.

Yep....hwrf appears to have shifted....looks almost like the euro

[Kingarabian]

Lets stop with the "Well this model is CLEARLY wrong. Isaac is going to go _______". "Or <insert model> has to be right because all the others suck"

Not sure if you've guys noticed but this doesn't even have a well defined center. Its all over the place at the moment.

Agreed.

I mean both the Euro and the GFS are giving us two different scenarios that could happen and they're all plausible. No model is all-mighty, and no matter how hard we humans try to make them perfect they will always have flaws. Despite all the advanced technology we have, we still have limited knowledge on how hurricanes work.

The Euro and the GFS are two really great models and they try to give us an idea of what may happen. Remember it all depends on Isaac, it's internal dynamics and it's surrounding environment.

[SunnyThoughts]

Found this on another board for all you twitters. The Hurricane REsearch Division (HRD) are tweeting concerning their flight right now inside the P-3 flight. https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

[ROCK]

Lets stop with the "Well this model is CLEARLY wrong. Isaac is going to go _______". "Or <insert model> has to be right because all the others suck"

Not sure if you've guys noticed but this doesn't even have a well defined center. Its all over the place at the moment.

agreed....its got some serious isues right now...you have mulitple vorts, dry air, and its screaming to the west at 21mph last I checked....the EURO shows this to some extent is both 0Z and 12Z from today...I believe it was showing multiple vorts up until 96hr until it got passed Hispa....

[ROCK]

Found this on another board for all you twitters. The Hurricane REsearch Division (HRD) are tweeting concerning their flight right now inside the P-3 flight. https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

some VERY interesting discussions going on with METS out of NY on another site....PM me if you want to check out....

[Texashawk]

Found this on another board for all you twitters. The Hurricane REsearch Division (HRD) are tweeting concerning their flight right now inside the P-3 flight. https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

some VERY interesting discussions going on with METS out of NY on another site....PM me if you want to check out....

Not too interesting as far as Texas is concerned.... right?? Right?

[ROCK]

no not Texas....but the explanations over there are facinating and give the EURO some backup for going against the grain from the GFS.....

[GTStorm]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

apologies if this was posted earlier, but...the 00Z BAM suites all seem to have shifted back to a Florida "Spine" scenario. No one ever talks about these models, but I wonder if they signal something. Someone much smarter than I, please chime in!

[Jevo]

18z GFDL valid Sunday Morning (20 years and 2 days after Andrew)

Im starting to lean toward the Western component of the models, but thought I would put this out there as food for thought. The GFDL is pretty outdated, but I've seen stranger things happen

[Blown Away]

Amazing consensus this far out.

[Bocadude85]

Amazing consensus this far out.

Whats up with the TVCN? shows a NE movement in the latter part of the forecast.. thats new.. also seems to be west of the NHC