ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

Jim Cantore Tweet

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Satellite trend shows deep convection wrapping into the center of #Isaac. If it persists the storm will strengthen:

[Wx_Warrior]

Jim c is still in atl so not worried in Broward until he checks-in at a local resort

Nice! You have figured him out. May take him a few stops, but where he lands, look out! LOL

[wxman76]

That is just what the recon said. Yeah i thought it was far north too. But also remember these are EXTRAPOLATED which means GUESSES. And the fact that they only vary by like 1 mb it's probably within or close to the error of the extrapolation. They have been flying at around 700 MB. Again I'm just reporting what I am reading as the recons come in. I think to be fair they should all be plotted up and see what it looks like. The next NHC update should be interesting to say the least!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ikester]

Jim c is still in atl so not worried in Broward until he checks-in at a local resort

Nice! You have figured him out. May take him a few stops, but where he lands, look out! LOL

A co-worker of mine calls him the 'angel of doom.' lol

[SeminoleWind]

[quote="Jevo"]Jim Cantore Tweet

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Satellite trend shows deep convection wrapping into the center of #Isaac. If it persists the storm will strengthen:

So my question is am i to assume that the deep convection near the northern part is were the center is presumed?

[RL3AO]

[WYNweather]

Jim c is still in atl so not worried in Broward until he checks-in at a local resort

Nice! You have figured him out. May take him a few stops, but where he lands, look out! LOL

A co-worker of mine calls him the 'angel of doom.' lol

Need a good lol. Down side we just canned the weekend in the keys. Now have to decide what to do with the boat. Stay put or run north.

[wxman76]

My guess is the center is still south of that. The last IR pic I saw showed the deep convection now rotating to the Southeast. There seems to be no rotation in the convection. IMO just rotating around it. Also noticed another blob of convection developing East of it. I'll believe consolidation when I actually see it.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would have to agree, the area you have marked as the main is where NOAA had the lowest pressure reading around 0000Z.

[RL3AO]

My guess is the center is still south of that. The last IR pic I saw showed the deep convection now rotating to the Southeast. There seems to be no rotation in the convection. IMO just rotating around it. Also noticed another blob of convection developing East of it. I'll believe consolidation when I actually see it.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I would have to agree, the area you have marked as the main is where NOAA had the lowest pressure reading around 0000Z.

Just an FYI guys. Disclaimers are not needed on either of those posts. You're not making a forecast. You're making an observation or a comment on the system.

[cycloneye]

It is already showing up at the San Juan long range radar.Look way down.

[psyclone]

Let's see if Isaac can maintain this new convective burst. prior bursts have proven transient as a result of dry air ingestion which is probably still taking place. Convective persistence would possibly indicate the dry air is relenting and that could set the stage for eventual strengthening.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:34 PM GMT on August 22, 2012

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are very similar to the previous set of runs, which I discussed in detail in this morning's post. The models show a westward track to a point on the south coast of Hispaniola. Isaac's center shift to the south may require some modest adjustments to the south and west for the models. This would result in the storm spending a few hours less time over Hispaniola, and more time over or just south of Cuba. This would slightly decrease the risk to the Dominican Republic, the east coast of Florida, and the Bahamas, but increase the risk to the west coast of Florida. The ECMWF--our best performing model over the past two years--continues to be an outlier among the models. It predicts that Isaac will track just south of Cuba, cross the western tip of Cuba on Monday, then head north towards an eventual landfall in Louisiana. However, this model is keeping Isaac weaker than the other models, and thus predicts the storm will have a weaker response to the trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. If the official NHC intensity forecast is right and Isaac becomes a hurricane on Thursday, the more southerly track of the ECMWF is not going to verify, and Isaac will spend considerable time over Cuba on Saturday and Sunday. Where Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba will be critical in determining its future path and intensity, and at this point, we don't know it its more likely that Isaac will go up the east coast of Florida, the west coast, or straight up the peninsula over land. At this point, I'd put the odds at:

40% chance of a track through the Gulf of Mexico, west of Florida
25% chance of a landfall in South Florida, and a track mostly over the Florida Peninsula
35% chance of a track along the east coast of Florida

[CronkPSU]

‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA

#N42 #Isaac: Finishing up our final outbound leg and heading home. Took a detour to try to find a center at 10,000ft. Very complex system.

[CronkPSU]

NHC is making us all wait til the last minute before 11 for this update...must be driving the 11 o clock news weather people nuts

[CronkPSU]

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[floridasun78]

it out now

[floridasun78]

[img]http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/8573/025753w5nlsm.gif

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it look like hurr now before getting over fl

[jasons2k]

It is already showing up at the San Juan long range radar.Look way down.

I just want to remind people from this distance that is the MLC depicted on radar, which is displaced from the surface circulation. Isaac is still very tilted per the recon obs.

Also, I'm getting more concerned with the possibility of very weak steering currents next week and the ridge possibly rebuilding over the SE US. We still have a long ways to go before we have any confidence on where Isaac will end-up.

[Ivanhater]

Guys...please stop quoting images..it is not that hard to remove the IMG tag.