ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

It certainly looks like the main blob of convection is circling around something. The actual center? It is easy to see that blob and pin the center in the middle of it but I don't think that is the case here. That's why people keep saying the center is all over the place. Some claim is moved to the N, some say the S. I think it depends when they look at the images and where the blob is at the time.

Probably hard to tell b/c there are multiple low-level vortices rotating a broad LLC, which is displaced from the MLC. It's still a mess and infrared imagery can be deceiving; it "looks" more impressive than it really is at the moment.

[HarryPotter]

St. Johns, USVI NDBC station reporting 25kt+ gusts (had a 29kt gust earlier)..and pressure down to 29.81in. Isaac looking to pass fairly well south, but still squally already...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41052

[Hammy]

i have been staring at this Rainbow color loop all night and I can honestly say I have never been as perplexed at a storm as I am tonight...no idea what is going on here, looks like it may be reorganizing down to the SE but I am confused as heck

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-long.html

It is a very strange system, to say the least. It appears very monsoonal, which I have seen few (if any) of in the eastern Caribbean, it looks more like something from the WPAC right now

[cpdaman]

If it misses the trough, there won't be anything left to pull it north. A distinct possibility is for steering currents to collapse, the ridge builds back, and this gets pushed towards the west.

The fact that some of the globals are stalling this at the end is troubling. Also, the ensembles are spreading rather than clustering; this is not a trend we want to see.

ya it's concerning that this could pass thru the keys ride up the west coast of florida then decide to hook a left in the north central gulf..ravaging the n gulf coast along the way or just at it's next landfalling point however west that is..this thing has the potential to effect alot of coast line if things line up in a certain way.

DISCLAIMER THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

btw this looks monsterous in size and if it gets into the GOM and deepens this will be a huge wave machine for the entire GOM

[LaBreeze]

If it misses the trough, there won't be anything left to pull it north. A distinct possibility is for steering currents to collapse, the ridge builds back, and this gets pushed towards the west.

The fact that some of the globals are stalling this at the end is troubling. Also, the ensembles are spreading rather than clustering; this is not a trend we want to see.

ya it's concerning that this could pass thru the keys ride up the west coast of florida then decide to hook a left in the north central gulf..ravaging the n gulf coast along the way or just at it's next landfalling point however west that is..this thing has the potential to effect alot of coast line if things line up in a certain way.

DISCLAIMER THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

Just wondering... what might cause it to hook a left at that point?

[cpdaman]

la breeze well slow to a near stall then move west is more appropriate language then when i used hook.....as jasons said it would be the ridge of high pressure over the SE united states building in and the flow around the bottom of the high being east to west steering flow

[Hurricane Alexis]

According to the nhc the center near 15.8 n is more defined.

[cpdaman]

St. Johns, USVI NDBC station reporting 25kt+ gusts (had a 29kt gust earlier)..and pressure down to 29.81in. Isaac looking to pass fairly well south, but still squally already...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41052

welcome harry!

[LaBreeze]

la breeze well slow to a near stall then move west is more appropriate language then when i used hook.....as jasons said it would be the ridge of high pressure over the SE united states building in and the flow around the bottom of the high being east to west steering flow

Excuse my questioning, I'm just curious..is the high over the SE US expected to build in fairly strong, and if so when is this expected? Thanks in advance.

[FireRat]

I'm curious to see if this may pull a 1964 Cleo, although less intense. Even the timing would be super close, Cleo struck South Fla on Aug. 27.

[Tampa_God]

Kind of reassuring to see customers come into the store today and stocking up on water, flashlights, batteries, etc. And all this up just north of Tampa. Might be over exaggerating but better now than never.

[HarryPotter]

welcome harry!

Thank you. Been lurking and reading for a while...finally decided to make it official and join! I'm an Emergency Manager and member of DMAT from CT who dabbles in amateur meteorology...but other than a few met courses in college and what I've self taught and learned, no formal training...

Looking forward to contributing and absorbing!

[RL3AO]

welcome harry!

Thank you. Been lurking and reading for a while...finally decided to make it official and join! I'm an Emergency Manager and member of DMAT from CT who dabbles in amateur meteorology...but other than a few met courses in college and what I've self taught and learned, no formal training...

Looking forward to contributing and absorbing!

EM eh? Dave, looks like you have a new friend.

Welcome.

[psyclone]

I mentioned Dennis as an analog a day or two ago not only in regard to an eventual track but to emphasize how quickly a storm can recover after spending a protracted period of time over cuba. Dennis' core was convectively vapid after limping off the Cuban coast but it quickly rebounded and the pressure fell off a cliff as the storm rapidly intensified. i remember watching the storm roar well offshore of tampa bay as a cat 4 as the ts windfield just teased our coast. also remember Dennis triggered an interesting seiche type surge that pivoted up the west coast and inundated the big bend, especially st marks with an astounding surge:

http://www.fsu.edu/news/2006/10/09/trapped.wave/

[ozonepete]

welcome harry!

Thank you. Been lurking and reading for a while...finally decided to make it official and join! I'm an Emergency Manager and member of DMAT from CT who dabbles in amateur meteorology...but other than a few met courses in college and what I've self taught and learned, no formal training...

Looking forward to contributing and absorbing!

Welcome! contributing and absorbing are what we love to do!

[hurricanefloyd5]

is the center moving wswward just abit?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

is the center moving wswward just abit?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

i believe that's the MLC

[ozonepete]

If the latest GFS track pans out, everyone over southern Florida can breathe a little sigh of relief right now. Isaac will be going over almost all the land that he could before he gets near there and this will keep him way weaker than he would have been. The only people who should be worried the most are those in the FL panhandle because Isaac will have a fair amount of time over water to re-strengthen before he gets there. This is just based on the latest model guidance I see.


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[floridasun78]

all media here going almost full coverage of ISAAC here in miami their live at homedepot and publix

[Miami Storm Tracker]

all media here going almost full coverage of ISAAC here in miami their live at homedepot and publix

Evening,

I saw several news trucks already today in front of the NHC. So yes it looks as if the media hype is about to go into high gear.