ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS is out to lunch....again. might be giving up the crown after this storm. NHC track shows Isaac has been trending slightly south of due west. "Garbage in, garbage out".

[Jevo]

0z GFS CONUS View +132

[cpdaman]

gfs is not garbage in garbage out

? ? ?

anyhow gfs has shown pretty good consistency for last 3 days now....lets see where ensembes are in 2 hours

[SunnyThoughts]

Isn't that a little farther west than previously? Anyway, I found this on the net...not sure if its accurate, but it sounds right considering the p-3 flight today. 0z GFS ingested 19 of the dropsondes from NOAA-42, 0z NAM ingested 10.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Asked this earlier today but never got an answer. If Isaac does follow this track and gets his butt.kicked by those landmasses will he still follow the weakness north as if he's just as strong as the gfs is portraying or will the remains go more west if its a td or weak ts?

[Jevo]

0z GFS CONUS View +138

[meriland23]

that is a good 50 miles west of last model run

[SunnyThoughts]

Thought it was nestled closer to the peninsula last run...and buried into the big bend...this looks a tad farther west. Maybe I'm thinking of a prior run.

[rainstorm]

looks like it went closer to the euro. now lets see what the euro does.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +144

[Ikester]

GFS is out to lunch....again. might be giving up the crown after this storm. NHC track shows Isaac has been trending slightly south of due west. "Garbage in, garbage out".

I'm really not sure why you say that. What other model has done an outstanding job this year? The Euro? That's the joke of the night. The GFS was the lone ranger on Debby. The GFS was continuously mocked and discredited time and time again and yet, nailed Debby when no other model could. I will also remind you that the Euro shifted EAST approx. 100 miles or so at 12z.

I will agree that I am perplexed at the deepening of the system so quickly. However, a larger system will hold its circulation together much better than a small system. Ike managed to hold it together while crossing the entire length of Cuba. It should also be known that a lot of the models really don't blow this thing up into a major 'cane.

[Wx_Warrior]

JB ragging on the poor GFS...And I quote:

"GFS may be too far west given west coast trough offshore and ridge over colorado. Much more like psns for east coast, not gulf storm."

[Jevo]

0z GFS 2nd US Landfall @ +147

[CourierPR]

[quote="Wx_Warrior"]From JB:

That shows Isaac? Don't think so because it's north of DR and headed west . Just saw his forecast on twitter and that ain't it.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, Euro and GFS definitely getting closer together. I've decided NOT to look at intensity right now, as you guys have repeatedly told us over and over that these models don't do intensity very well.

[Wx_Warrior]

He posted it (9 mins ago). #Research

"GFS takes track west of mine after Sunday and has very similar track from Keys on Sunday night and Monday to 1935 "

[Hurricane Alexis]

GFS is out to lunch....again. might be giving up the crown after this storm. NHC track shows Isaac has been trending slightly south of due west. "Garbage in, garbage out".

It's not garbage in garbage out, most models still show a florida scenario.

[RL3AO]

I deleted a few non-model related posts. Lets keep this on topic guys.

[SunnyThoughts]

If the GFS did indeed ingest some of those sondes from the NOAA flight today...it would have a little more information than other models. Perhaps that is why it moved a little farther west towards the Euro? Just throwing out some thoughts here.

[Jevo]

So here is what I got from this last GFS run...

1st Landfall is slightly East of the 18z @ +108 in the Florida Keys and Extreme SW Florida mainland putting the NE quad over Metro Dade and Broward counties

2nd Landfall West of the 18z Run @ @ +147 Just east of Panama City